Arin Dube 🚫

@arindube
5 Followers
56 Following
23 Posts

Dad, Economist, Pro-Democracy

UMass Amherst, @nberpubs, visting BU

Advisor: The Stone Foundation

Topics: Minimum Wage. Monopsony. Unemp Ins.

Book project: The Wage Standard

Arin Dube 🚫Nov 7, 2022
One problem with extreme wealth is that it reduces the cost of making big mistakes. Which is fine if it only affected us, but in reality it affects many other people. And that makes it very costly for society.
Arin Dube 🚫Nov 7, 2022
The "interest rate hikes are raising rents" argument is just simply wrong and I really would like some smart people whom I respect to stop making them.
Arin Dube 🚫Nov 7, 2022
It's great @paulgp started the econtwitter instance, but some of us economists here on mastodon.social will have bragging rights that "we joined mastodon before it was cool and the econtwitter instance wasn't even around." Amirite @dynarski?
Show threadArin Dube 🚫Nov 5, 2022
We've run *a lot* of regional panel wage and Phillips curves of late! I'm not going to tweet out results until our paper is out. But suffice it to say that (properly defined) tightness predicts nominal wage and price growth not very different from the simple model I linked above.
Show threadArin Dube 🚫Nov 5, 2022

To be clear, I'm NOT saying that tightness in the labor market has no impact on inflation today. It very well might (more on this later).

What I AM saying is that it can't be the primary factor according to textbook models when price growth>>average nominal wage growth.

Show threadArin Dube 🚫Nov 5, 2022

This is where having simple formal models can help clarify logic of arguments and avoid talking in circles. Doesn't mean the model is right. Just disciplines conversations and arguments.

Cc @paulkrugman @Noahpinion

Show threadArin Dube 🚫Nov 5, 2022
This comes right off the 1999 analysis by @lkatz42 and Krueger in their BPEA. Take the difference between equations 4 and 5: that's the real wage growth. Tightness will raise nominal wage and price similarly. If price growth > nominal wage growth, gap likely from supply shocks.
Arin Dube 🚫Nov 5, 2022
I think some people are getting really confused about what it means when there is inflation and real wage declines. Textbook models of wage and price Phillips curve tells us that if price growth>nominal wage growth, it's unlikely from labor market tightness.
Show threadArin Dube 🚫Nov 5, 2022
It does allow communication between people in a way not feasible in other more self-selected social media. (Which creates all of the insanity of being locked in the same room as a million other screaming people. That's the price.)
Arin Dube 🚫Nov 5, 2022
I'll be mostly off social media right now to focus on writing my book, but ... as much as we like cursing the hellsite it's been a good run, and I hope it survives in some form. And I think it will survive Musk.