NewClimate Institute

@NewClimate
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NewClimate Institute for #climatepolicy and global #sustainability brings action on climate change from ideas to implementation. #ClimateAction

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NewClimate Institute (@newclimate.bsky.social)

NewClimate Institute for climate policy and global sustainability brings action on climate change from ideas to implementation. 🔗(https://newclimate.org/)

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📣ICYMI: CBAM enters into force in October and our blog explores both the economic risks & opportunities for producers in Southeast Asia using our CLIMTRADE model. Read the blog in full ⤵️ https://bit.ly/NewClimate_CBAM_SEA_economies
Exploring the potential implications of the EU's new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism for Southeast Asian economies

In this blog, we look at the exposure of major Southeast Asian economies to CBAM in its likely future form and apply an economic model (CLIMTRADE) to appraise several broader considerations that may arise from distortions to global trade flows.

NewClimate Institute

World Bank could strengthen the sector notes by further emphasizing the mutual benefits between mitigation, adaptation, and SDGs and increasing transparency of Paris alignment project assessments to allow for greater clarity and accountability.

Read blog here ⤵ https://lnkd.in/eUCxgetG

The World Bank’s sector notes encourage the consideration of transitions, but lack sufficient detail to ensure full alignment with the Paris agreement

In this blog we explore whether the approaches in the World Bank sector notes are sufficient to avoid financial flows that conflict with the Paris Agreement.

Our concerns:
1⃣ Too much room for oil and gas
2⃣ Reliance on countries’ climate targets which on the whole are unaligned
3⃣ Reiteration of the universally aligned list which is not synonymous with Paris alignment
4⃣ Insufficient focus on the opportunities of climate action

🚨 In our new joint blog with #Germanwatch, #E3G and #nrdc: We assess whether the #worldbank sector notes are sufficient to avoid financial flows that conflict with the Paris Agreement.

Our assessment: is a mixed picture. Some notes provide more clarity, while others lack details and leave room for interpretation.

Exploring the potential implications of the EU's new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism for Southeast Asian economies

In this blog, we look at the exposure of major Southeast Asian economies to CBAM in its likely future form and apply an economic model (CLIMTRADE) to appraise several broader considerations that may arise from distortions to global trade flows.

NewClimate Institute
5/ In every risk, there is an opportunity: those producers and exporters that are fastest to adopt are likely to see significant returns on their investment to decarbonize, as their exports become comparatively more competitive in carbon-constrained markets.
4/ As exports of affected products to the EU become less competitive, producers may face aggregated forgone revenue from diverted trade, accumulating up to USD 800 million in VNM and ~USD 500 million in IDN and THA each. The Philippines is likely to be much less impacted.
3/ Producers and exporters of steel and aluminium, and plastics (although not yet covered by the CBAM) in specific countries such as VNM, THL, and IDN should still expect the mechanism to have a notable economic impact on their businesses.
2/ Although Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam are exposed to CBAM, the countries do not seem to be highly vulnerable on aggregate. Most SEA countries have relatively diversified export sectors that are not strongly concentrated on the EU market.