Mastodawn

As soon as 2028, Artificial Intelligence may begin creating more jobs than it eliminates, according to recent research from advisory firm Gartner. See new survey data on AI and Jobs on Substack at https://substack.com/profile/23237822-mike-temkin/note/c-274472853

Mike Temkin (@miketemkin)

New Survey Data on AI and Jobs: “As soon as 2028, artificial intelligence may begin creating more jobs than it eliminates, according to recent research from advisory firm Gartner. As companies continue to harness the capabilities of AI in the workplace, it will become increasingly important for HR leaders to move away from experience-based advancement toward a more skill-centric approach, Gartner said. Otherwise, organizations risk derailing the careers of their existing employees. … Gartner’s survey of 110 HR leaders found that 40% of companies have already gotten rid of obsolete jobs, and almost half of businesses have streamlined their organizational structures to become more collaborative. Employees are seeing fewer roadmaps for advancement and a smaller number of development opportunities, per the research. In addition, junior employees don’t have as many chances to learn the necessary judgment and foundational skills to grow in their jobs, Gartner said. The report said that CHROs need to determine which skills are relevant and which skills are no longer applicable to current workplace needs. Then, companies need to develop training modules that prioritize future organizational success. … HR leaders also need to focus on skills rather than job titles when it comes to advancement, the report said. The introduction of AI means that businesses will need to be more flexible in terms of what qualifications best prepare employees for promotions into higher level roles. … Meanwhile, hiring strategies have changed, according to recent research from learning platform D2L in partnership with Morning Consult. Almost half of U.S.-based HR leaders surveyed said AI has raised the bar for entry-level employees in terms of productivity, even though actual staffing levels haven’t changed, according to the report. Almost a third of HR professionals surveyed said companies are hiring fewer junior staffers and more mid-level workers, with AI expected to finish tasks that used to be given to early career workers. Likewise, Gartner found that AI automation has led to fewer available entry-level roles.” From the article “AI is ‘going to break down millions of careers,’ Gartner analyst says” posted May 26, 2026, on HR Dive by Lara Ewen – U.S. journalist. For more Thoughts And Observations about AI and Jobs go to https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/artificial-intelligence-new-opportunities-mike-temkin/

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Mike Temkin 3d ago

"The expected return of the El Niño weather pattern, supercharged by climate change is shaping up to be the next test for a global economy already strained by the fallout from the Iran war," per The Wall Street Journal. See Thoughts And Observations on Substack at https://substack.com/profile/23237822-mike-temkin/note/c-273886345

Mike Temkin (@miketemkin)

Update on possible economic impact due to forecasted summer weather and climate change from the Wall Street Journal: “The expected return of the El Niño weather pattern, supercharged by climate change, is shaping up to be the next test for a global economy already strained by the fallout from the Iran war. El Niño occurs every few years when trade winds of the tropical Pacific weaken and the ocean warms up. It typically lasts up to a year, peaking around year-end, and tends to bring dryness and heat to much of Asia and wet weather to various places, including the Gulf Coast. The diverse outcomes of the last El Niño, from 2022 to 2023, included a rice export ban in India, a dengue epidemic, low water levels in the Panama Canal, devastating floods in Brazil and more expensive chocolate. Forecasters in the U.S. and elsewhere say El Niño is highly likely to form this year. Very hot ocean temperatures mean it has the potential to be a severe one, but it’s too early to say. Among those paying close attention to the El Niño forecasts are farmers across Asia already dealing with high diesel and fertilizer prices. In energy, the uncertainty is compounding the big unknown of when the Strait of Hormuz reopens, said BNP Paribas commodities strategist Jason Ying. He’s watching for extra demand for liquefied natural gas in Asia to power air conditioners as temperatures rise. That could leave Europe short in the coming months. India is already enduring a brutal heat wave, and the forecast points to below-average rainfall in the coming monsoon. El Niño years are typically hotter, and energy consumption rises as people crank the AC. Drought also saps hydropower output, driving natural-gas and coal burning, something that happened in China during the last El Niño. That episode boosted cocoa prices after fierce dry winds in key producers Ghana and Ivory Coast wrecked the crop, pushing up chocolate prices. Cocoa futures prices have been climbing, having only recently returned to the levels seen before the last El Niño. Analysts say other agricultural commodities, from sugar to natural rubber, could get more expensive, but some crop-producing regions could benefit. … It can be hard to disentangle El Niño’s influence from extreme weather, which itself seems increasingly ordinary. The onset of El Niño may be feeding India’s current heat wave, but Europe’s is unrelated, said Andrew Watkins, a climate scientist at Monash University in Australia, who used to be in charge of calling the onset of the weather phenomenon at the country’s Bureau of Meteorology. Its impacts are now amplified because each episode occurs on a hotter planet.” From the article “El Niño Is the Next Risk Hanging Over the Global Economy” posted on The Wall Street Journal website on May 28, 2026 by Ed Ballard – U. K. journalist, covers climate change and the energy transition for The Wall Street Journal from London. For more Thoughts And Observations about Climate Change go to https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/men-argue-nature-acts-addressing-climate-change-requires-mike-temkin/ --

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Mike Temkin 4d ago

From the MIT Sloan Mgt. Review:
“Companies shouldn’t wait until quantum computing technologies have reached maturity to invest in them. As an enabling technology, quantum requires hands-on experimentation, feedback loops ... to identify practical use cases." See more on Substack at https://substack.com/profile/23237822-mike-temkin/note/c-273268727

Mike Temkin (@miketemkin)

On Quantum Computing - From the MIT Sloan Management Review – “Companies shouldn’t wait until quantum computing technologies have reached maturity to invest in them. As an enabling technology, quantum requires hands-on experimentation, feedback loops that support incremental learning, and co-invention cycles between producers and users — over time — to identify practical use cases. Investments in quantum today may see near-term payoffs, but the focus should be on active learning and the potential for breakthrough innovations over the longer term. … Headlines about new chips, qubit (quantum bit) counts, and error correction suggest that the key question is whether quantum computing has reached the point where it can outperform classical computers on practical problems. This framing leads to a familiar strategic dilemma: Wait until the technology is clearly ‘ready,’ or risk getting involved too early in something that may not pay off. Qubit counts and error rates are appropriate engineering milestones, but they are a poor guide to how and when most companies should engage. For technologies like quantum computing, economic value does not arrive all at once, when a technical threshold is crossed. It emerges gradually, through experimentation, complementary innovation, and organizational learning, often well before the technology is fully mature. Like other enabling technologies, quantum computing will not generate much economic value on its own. Instead, its economic value will emerge through repeated cycles of co-invention between the technology-producing sector and complementary innovations developed by users in application settings. Technologies with the highest enabling potential are referred to as general-purpose technologies.” From the report “Why Businesses Should Experiment With Quantum Computing Now” posted May 7, 2026 on the MIT Sloan Management Review website by Avi Goldfarb - the Rotman Chair in Artificial Intelligence and Healthcare and professor of marketing at the Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto and Florenta Teodoridis - the Jorge Paulo and Susanna Lemann Chair in Entrepreneurship and an associate professor of management and organization at the University of Southern California Marshall School of Business. For more Thoughts And Observations about Quantum Computing go to https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/use-quantum-computing-become-competitive-advantage-michael-temkin-acc5c/ --

Substack

Mike Temkin 5d ago

Brene Brown on the convergence of AI disruption, workforce instability and eroding trust. Thoughts And Observations about HR Leadership and Artificial Intelligence on Substack athttps://substack.com/profile/23237822-mike-temkin/note/c-272690180

Mike Temkin Jun 4

Examine your life through Self-Inquiry instead of Self-Criticism Thoughts And Observations about Mental Health Anxiety and Introspection on Substack at https://substack.com/profile/23237822-mike-temkin/note/c-270538382

Mike Temkin (@miketemkin)

Self-Inquiry instead of Self-Criticism: “Mental health isn’t just about diagnosing problems and fixing deficits. It’s also about recognizing the strengths, values, and capacities that are already alive inside you. Many of us move through life driven by ambition, distraction, anxiety, or the pursuit of comfort. But lasting well-being comes from balancing those drives with something larger: the desire to contribute, connect, and help life flourish. Write down three things that are already ‘going right’ in your life—not achievements, but qualities: resilience, curiosity, kindness, persistence, honesty. Then ask yourself how you might build from there instead of starting from self-criticism. … By focusing on what’s going right, I’m not asking anyone to pretend that hard things haven’t happened or that suffering isn’t real. Real pain deserves real attention. But I am suggesting that the best place to start addressing your mental health isn’t in cataloging what’s gone wrong—it’s in identifying what’s already going well for you and building from there. Not because it’s more comfortable, but because it’s more effective. … When I encourage patients to examine their lives, the ones who make the most meaningful progress are never the ones who are hardest on themselves. Self-inquiry involves checking in regularly with your structure of self, function of self, and drives. It also means asking honest questions about what you find. Not to criticize yourself, but to understand yourself. This distinction changes everything. When you judge yourself for being anxious, you typically get more anxious. But when you become curious about your anxiety—when it started, what triggers it, what function it’s been serving—the resultant understanding usually calms you down and offers you leverage. One useful entry point into this kind of self-inquiry is to notice the gap in your function of self between your behaviors and your strivings. What you actually do, day to day, tells you a great deal about what you believe about yourself and what you think you deserve, as opposed to what you consciously aspire to. When these two things are aligned, life tends to flow reasonably well. When they’re in conflict, that gap is precisely where some crucial work lives. A person who says they want to build closer relationships but consistently avoids vulnerability isn’t being inconsistent because they’re weak-willed. Something inside of them has decided that closeness isn’t safe. Getting curious about that—kindly, without self-condemnation—will shift everything.” Paul Conti – U.S. psychiatrist, writer, author of “Trauma” and “What’s Going Right”, from a report posted by May 27, 2026, on Book Of The Day – The Next Big Idea Club by Michael Kovnat – U.S. podcast host/producer/director - Co-founder & SVP at Next Big Idea Club. For more Thoughts And Observations about Mental Health go to https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/thoughts-observations-mental-health-mike-temkin/

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Mike Temkin Jun 3

New update on Robots, Humanoid Robots and Robotic Technology from McKinsey now on Substack at https://substack.com/profile/23237822-mike-temkin/note/c-269951381

Mike Temkin (@miketemkin)

Update on Robots and Robotic Technology from McKinsey: “Humanoid robots are approaching an inflection point, with advances in AI, hardware, and investment accelerating their path from prototypes to real-world deployment. Venture capital funding for robotics surged more than threefold between 2023 and 2025, when it reached $40.7 billion annually. Governments have declared embodied AI a strategic priority, with China alone committing a $138 billion state venture capital guidance fund to AI and robotics, among other high-tech sectors. Both start-ups and established OEMs across Asia, Europe, and the United States are now scaling pilots in manufacturing, logistics, and industrial environments while training foundation models on real-world interaction data. The strategic question is no longer whether humanoid robots will work but whether they can scale economically—and at what cost, speed, and reliability. … For many of the most critical and costly humanoid components, the supplier ecosystem is still at the early stage for large-scale production, creating a significant opportunity for scale build-out. But as demand for humanoid hardware rises over the next few years, both suppliers and OEMs will have a greater incentive to increase investments. How the supply chain matures will shape the pace and economics of humanoid deployment over the next decade: where bottlenecks and opportunities exist, how sourcing strategies evolve, and which players will build the platforms the industry needs. … The core hardware stack of a humanoid spans five domains: actuators (40 to 60 percent of the bill of materials, or BOM), sensing and perception systems (10 to 20 percent), compute and control platforms (10 to 15 percent), structural components (5 to 10 percent), and battery modules (5 to 10 percent). Together, the five domains represent 85 to 90 percent of total unit costs, with the remainder coming from other areas, such as cooling systems and wiring harnesses. The impact of each domain on humanoid performance also varies. The humanoid robotics supply chain breaks down into eight hardware domains, with varying differentiation potential and overall cost impact. What makes the supply chain picture distinctive is the mismatch between where value concentrates and where the supplier ecosystem is ready for high-volume production. Actuators, by far the largest cost driver and primary performance differentiator, depend on one of the least developed supplier ecosystems. Sensing, particularly force and tactile, faces similar exposure. By contrast, compute and battery components benefit from deep adjacency to the electric vehicle (EV), semiconductor, and consumer electronics industries, where production infrastructure already operates at scale. Many high-impact humanoid components, including motors, actuator power electronics, permanent magnets, and precision bearings, overlap structurally with the EV value chain. This adjacency matters because it directly influences how quickly cost curves can compress as humanoid volumes increase. Subsystems with strong EV spillover benefit from existing tooling, supplier depth, and process maturity. Components without such adjacency, particularly robotics-grade force and tactile sensing, lack equivalent scale anchors and are more likely to face structural supply constraints. … As humanoid deployments scale toward 2035, supply constraints and opportunities will not appear uniformly across the hardware stack. Instead, bottlenecks will concentrate in subsystems where high-performance requirements, supplier concentration, and limited standardization intersect and reinforce one another. … Supply chain bottlenecks are most likely to emerge around actuators and sensing and perception systems.” From the report “Turning humanoid supply chain constraints into billion-dollar wins” posted April 17, 2026, on the McKinsey and Company website by Ani Kelkar - partner in McKinsey’s Boston office; Christian Jansen - partner in McKinsey’s Hamburg office; Erik Sparre - partner in McKinsey’s Tokyo office; Mark Patel - senior partner in McKinsey’s Bay Area office. For more Thoughts And Observations about Robotic Technology go to https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/next-evolution-robotic-technology-michael-temkin-qbytc/

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Mike Temkin Jun 2

New Thoughts And Observations article now on Substack looking at how businesses manage risk when evaluating new products, processes and strategies. Let me know your experience and perspective on how to appropriately manage risk in today’s business arena. https://substack.com/home/post/p-200321137

Managing The Appropriate Amount Of Risk Tolerance

Thoughts And Observations about Risk Management

Mike’s Substack

Mike Temkin Jun 1

25% of job seekers have been searching for a new job for more than a year, 45% for at least three months per new Monster survey. See more on EmploymentTrends, Recruiting and Employee Engagement on Substack at https://substack.com/profile/23237822-mike-temkin/note/c-268805269

Mike Temkin (@miketemkin)

Update on Employment Trends: “A new survey by job listing firm http://Monster.com found that 25% of job seekers have been searching for a new job for more than a year, while 45% have been searching for at least three months. The shifting landscape — combined with the rise of artificial intelligence tools — is leading to employers being flooded with job applicants, including many who are searching for roles outside of their traditional sector. http://Monster.com's survey found 46% of candidates are applying to a wider range of roles than before and 65% are applying to roles outside their industry. … 32% would accept a pay cut, and 73% would give up at least one major job benefit to get a new job. 23% say they would give up full-time hours. 22% would consider leaving their preferred industry. 18% would give up title or seniority. 15% would give up remote work options. The shifting hiring market has given employers considerably more leverage and choices, but it's also bogged down the process for hiring managers. Many companies are leaning on AI tools to streamline the process and winnow down their candidate pools — although experts have warned that companies should take care to ensure those efforts align with federal discrimination laws. … Layoff rates, which have held steady at around 1% or 1.1% for the last year, inched up slightly to 1.2% in March, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That has created a job market where employers are reluctant to hire, and workers feel more frustrated with a job market rife with ghost job postings, scams, and AI filters. The latest annual Job Search Trends Report by job tracker and resume builder Huntr found that the time from a job seeker’s first application to getting a first offer letter grew from a median 57 days in the first quarter of 2025 to 83 days by the end of 2025.” From the article “The job hunt is now a long-term effort. The tradeoffs are steep” posted May 20, 2026, on the Business Journals website by Andy Medici – U.S. journalist. For more Thoughts And Observations about Employment Trends, Recruiting and Employee Engagement go to https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/recruiting-retaining-minds-hearts-employees-mike-temkin/

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Mike Temkin May 29

"In January, it took only two weeks for an earlier version of Anthropic’s model to uncover more than 100 unsecure entry points into Mozilla’s Firefox web browser" reports the Wall Street Journal. See update on Cybersecurity now on Substack at https://substack.com/profile/23237822-mike-temkin/note/c-267172926

Mike Temkin (@miketemkin)

Update on Cybersecurity: “In January (2026), it took only two weeks for an earlier version of Anthropic’s model to uncover more than 100 unsecure entry points into Mozilla’s Firefox web browser. Mythos, the company’s unreleased model, currently in testing at JPMorgan Chase, Crowdstrike and other companies, has proven to be faster and more powerful. In the hands of cyber adversaries, the tools can be used to dig deeper into U.S. water systems, power plants, communications networks and other critical infrastructure. ‘Cyber defenders are under growing pressure as AI is being used not just to discover cyber vulnerabilities, but to actively attack and analyze network defenses in real time,’ said Robert Costello, a former chief information officer at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency. More than ever, chief information security officers will need the budget and authority to push their own AI-based defenses forward, said Costello, who is now chief digital and information officer at Merlin Group, a network that invests in and develops cyber tech companies.” From the article “Cyber Officials Brace for Lax AI Oversight” posted May 22, 2026, on the Wall Street Journal website by Angus Loten – U.S. journalist, covers cybersecurity and data privacy for the Wall Street Journal. For more Thoughts And Observations about Cybersecurity go to https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/694-data-breaches-so-far-2023-july-31-healthcare-education-temkin/

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Mike Temkin May 28

Per the MIT Sloan School Of Management - companies require three types of leadership for digital transformation:
1) Initiative leaders 2) Shared resource leaders & 3) Portfolio leaders. See advice on managing companies through digital transformation on Substack at https://substack.com/profile/23237822-mike-temkin/note/c-266614961

Mike Temkin (@miketemkin)

Advice from on Managing Companies Through Digital Transformations: “Companies that succeed with digital innovation engage leaders who have distinct areas of responsibility and complementary knowledge and expertise … (per) new research from the MIT Center for Information Systems Research. … Three types of leaders: 1) Initiative leaders are accountable for developing and operating digital offerings that contribute to the organization’s strategic objectives. They develop innovations in phases; generate evidence about a project’s desirability, feasibility, and viability; and secure resources for the next phase, when warranted. 2) Shared resource leaders assemble teams of specialists who build reusable platforms, talent pools, and other assets with cross-initiative utility — helping teams avoid duplication of work and common scaling constraints. 3) Portfolio leaders are top-level executives who regularly update strategic priorities, realign initiatives based on expected impact, reallocate resources to the highest-potential projects, and cut projects that no longer merit investment. … Traditional approaches worked when conditions were more stable, but in today’s dynamic environments, it’s impossible to assume any single leader or unit is capable of doing it all. … The most successful companies assign two initiative leaders to co-lead a cross-functional team. One leader, typically from IT or a digital group, focuses on feasibility — making sure that prototypes are working well and that the offering is equally proficient when deployed at scale. An initiative leader from the business side is tasked with making sure that end user needs are being met and that projects are aligned to the strategic ambitions of the organization. …In addition to developing these three types of leaders, organizations should take the following actions to improve digital innovation results: Link leaders to clear strategic outcomes and invest in a variety of educational resources to build skills and confidence. Empower the three leader types to embrace test-and-learn practices in a disciplined way to reduce waste and increase impact. Sync the work of all three leadership roles to the organization’s strategic ambitions so resources are prioritized toward what matters most.” From the article “3 types of leaders that drive digital innovation” posted May 4, 2026, on the MIT Sloan Thinking Forward newsletter by Beth Stackpole – U.S. journalist. For more Thoughts And Observations about Change Management go to https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/well-managed-change-can-transformational-michael-temkin-xquzc/ For more Thoughts And Observations about Leadership go to https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/thoughts-observations-leadership-michael-temkin-jjloc/

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