Mkt Wrap 14 Sep 23 - Volume rose for a 4th day but unevenly, esp active in Inds under significant pressure recently, and Telecoms and Real Estate both heavily bombed out on an IT basis. Not participating is current engine of mkt/index strength Autos where activity is certainly trailing off on the most recent leg up, while Energy is also soft as px tests 9yr highs, as is true in Internet alone among industry group setting >52wk (1.5yr) SRS highs
Rotation likely in progress
Mkt wrap 7 Sep 23 - Utils top sector Thu bouncing from nr dual SRS/px support with volume building to something potentially resembling climactic thru mid Jul after relative strength hit the worst levels since the late 50s Wed. Unloved REITs also at the top of an otherwise also defensive looking subsector leaderboard, in the area for a major LT cycle low
ST the mkt likely closed somewhere in the B leg of an ABC with the precise pattern unclear but bearish beyond the v ST
Sector Wrap 6 Sep 23 - Muted volume on the downdraft Wed albeit with weakness concentrated in megacap market darlings and Tech alone SRS- among sectors, with small- and midcaps much stronger but also succumbing after a decent open
Best rel volume in Cons Svcs tho, led by classic defensive Food Retail bouncing near possible support around the mid Jun 1yr low, in a sign of renewed caution following a lengthy sidewaysy move while the mkt rallied. . .
Sector Wrap 5 Sep 23
$RUT/Smallcaps leading down Tue with Value worst but the $DJSG DJ Smallcap Growth index not far behind SRS-1.6% painting a huge textbook Evening Star candle pattern hitting a 15m SRS low, making the point there's no consistent basis for megacap outperformance ex liquidity preference/premium, as equity 52wk lows doubled from innocuous looking levels
US Wkly subsector leaderboard - Upside leadership still extremely narrow largely driven by Autos (& Parts) with Semis also nr the top but fading post $NVDA earnings, and downside leadership much broader incl Banks, recent upside momo leader Home Builders, and Energy worst sector last wk but now entering the window for a 3m cycle low, as well as Resources also with some potential
$DWMI US Microcaps - Set a marginal new 22yr SRS/relative strength low vs the broad market extending the downtrend off the Feb '21 7yr high. Microcaps typically bottom months in advance of the broad indices and the ongoing bear market tends to confirm not only the one in the broader market, but also that we are some distance off a final bottom
Stoxx relative performance vs US peers - Overall only marginally underperforming US equities Tue largely due to Teleccoms catching up with big falls in US peers Mon slumping to a ATL. Meanwhile Retail a leader setting a marginal new 16m high, but volume pulling back after rising thu a preceding 3d abs/SRS losing streak
Sector Wrap 17 Jul 23 - Worst volume since the day before the 4th Jul holiday in spite of possibly climactic turnover in Telecoms confirms the summer doldrums have arrived!
So has a price war in #Autos apparently tho, and despite the subsector placing top 5 the internal leader $F plunged likely failing technically at the year ago high, and imv a big ABC countertrend is very, very close to complete
Market is running on fumes/options manipulation. Be afraid esp in Aug!
Trump's plan to bring authotarianism to the US
Important article in the NYT with a gift link from the lead journalist on the story, a testament to the gravity with which they view it imv
Pkease see
https://twitter.com/MarketScalpel/status/1680962699193098240?s=20
2/ Energy related Integrateds and Coal were 2nd/3rd worst subsectors but Oil Equip & Svcs diverging 9th best now at a 2yr SIRS internal rel strength high vs the sector after underperforming during the $CL runup '21 thu mid '22; a shifting perception of the pricing outlook perhaps?
If so will that be confined to a USD only phenomenon? Certainly possible with the dollar in freefall last wk; should know within days if a crash is underway or we reverse back into the range from Feb
