I didn't really drop EVERYTHING to celebrate International White Women's Day. Was that wrong?
The very essence of Front Harbor Macro Research
Gerard MacDonell
@GerardMacDonell
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Business economist
The very essence of Front Harbor Macro Research
The very essence of Front Harbor Macro Research
But they do so with Trump!
Opinions vary, but I think at the end of the day they are probably white.
Is services activity collapsing or did it just do a round trip. The series that Bloomberg allows market participants to plot out easily suggests collapse. The series that Bloomberg does not feature basically reversed a wiggle from last month. Conspiracy, I say!!
With the New Year JOLTS data out, it is time to update the Beverage Curve.
Recession view update.
I DON'T KNOW
For 10 years I did claim to know. So this has been a big change.
I challenge any of the geniuses to claim they can say more than that.
How many books a week does this guy even read? Must be some sort of huge intellectual, and yet in touch with regular folk too.
Sorry, I actually like Obama well enough. The locals bragging up his endorsement of Ducks made me want to puke is all.
This has been driven by developments in two sectors: the goods sector, even net of used cars, and housing as marginal rents, whose whose inflation rate has apparently fallen to near zero. But the peak disinflationary force from those two sectors is probably now in the data, at least on my metrics. (Official rent data are separate.) So until the labor market cools off, further disinflation from here, i.e. into a range acceptable to the Fed, seems not the base case.
The labor market is its own issue and my own guess is that it is a major issue. But within goods and services, there has been a dramatic deceleration of what we might call underlying inflation.
