I put the odds of recession at 50%. That may seem like a rather obvious cop out. And it is! The way I think about this reminds me of the behaviorists' point about illusion of control. You know, there is a jar of black marbles and red marbles but you don't know the proportion. What would you pay to receive one dollar if one draw drew a red? Would you change your price if you knew the proportions were even? Not me. The value of no clue is 50 cents.