Trump still leads in Florida, but look at that trend…

#USPol #Election2024 #Harris #Trump

https://electiongraphs.com/2024ec/polldata.php?Dem=Harris&Rep=Trump&State=FL&Days=0

With the most recent batch of polling, Trump once again takes a narrow lead over Harris in the Election Graphs "tipping point”, which is the margin in the state that would put the winner over the top in the electoral college. That now stands at Trump+0.3% in Pennsylvania.

The chart below shows how the 2024 tipping point metric has evolved over the last few months. Lines for 2020 and 2016 are included for comparison.

#USPol #Election2024 #Harris #Trump

https://electiongraphs.com/2024ec/

With today's new polls (so far anyway), the tipping point (the margin in the state that would put the winner over the top) based on the Election Graphs state poll averages, moves back to the Trump side (barely). #USPol #Election2024 #Harris #Trump

https://electiongraphs.com/2024ec/?Dem=Harris&Rep=Trump&Days=0&Format=spec

After a short time where Trump had retaken the lead, with the polls so far today Harris is ahead again in the Election Graphs poll average for Pennsylvania, and therefore is ahead for the electoral college overall as well.

(At least in the views that take the polls at face value that is. Our probabilities still give Trump a slight edge because polls have underestimated the Republican in close states in recent cycles.)

https://electiongraphs.com/2024ec/?Dem=Harris&Rep=Trump&Days=0&Format=spec

#USPol #Harris #Trump #Pennsylvania

Nevada goes to the blue side. #USPol #Harris #Trump #Nevada

https://electiongraphs.com/2024ec/polldata.php?Dem=Harris&Rep=Trump&State=NV&Days=0

Wow. Look at Arizona. #USPol #Harris #Trump #Arizona

https://electiongraphs.com/2024ec/polldata.php?Dem=Harris&Rep=Trump&State=AZ&Days=0

Oh. Never mind. New poll in PA swings it back to Harris again, it is now at Harris by 0.3% for both PA and the tipping point. It is right on the line right now. Could well bounce back and forth a bunch still. #USPol #Harris #Trump

https://electiongraphs.com/2024ec/polldata.php?Dem=Harris&Rep=Trump&State=PA&ts=1722873962
https://newsie.social/@ElectionGraphs/112910350379669635

Easy come, easy go. New polling in PA this morning moves my PA average (and the tipping point) from Harris by 0.4% to Trump by 0.4%, putting Trump back in a narrow lead in the categorization view again. #USPol #Harris #Trump

https://electiongraphs.com/2024ec/?Dem=Harris&Rep=Trump&Days=0&Format=spec
https://newsie.social/@ElectionGraphs/112887480032960260