Election Graphs

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Election Graphs is a site run by @abulsme that visually tracks state by state poll averages in US Presidential elections, as well as delegate counts during the primary season.

Yes, there are a lot of big famous sites that do this too. EG has its own twist on it, and has done pretty well since starting in the 2008 cycle.

Blog posts, daily summaries, etc will be tagged #USPol and #Election2024. Individual poll and status updates will be tagged #USPolPolls for filtering.

Websitehttps://electiongraphs.com/
Election GraphsJan 7

Sununu best case vs. Whitmer has changed:

Sununu by 112
[Whitmer 213, Sununu 325]
⇩⇩⇩⇩⇩
Sununu by 92
[Whitmer 223, Sununu 315]

More info:
https://electiongraphs.com/2024ec/?Dem=Whitmer&Rep=Sununu&ts=1767805415

#USPolPolls

2024 Electoral College - Whitmer vs Sununu - National Summary

Election GraphsJan 7

Whitmer vs. Sununu expected case change:

Whitmer/Sununu TIE
[Whitmer 269, Sununu 269]
⇩⇩⇩⇩⇩
Whitmer by 14
[Whitmer 276, Sununu 262]

More info:
https://electiongraphs.com/2024ec/?Dem=Whitmer&Rep=Sununu&ts=1767805415

#USPolPolls

2024 Electoral College - Whitmer vs Sununu - National Summary

Election GraphsJan 7

Whitmer best case vs. Sununu has changed:

Whitmer by 120
[Whitmer 329, Sununu 209]
⇩⇩⇩⇩⇩
Whitmer by 154
[Whitmer 346, Sununu 192]

More info:
https://electiongraphs.com/2024ec/?Dem=Whitmer&Rep=Sununu&ts=1767805415

#USPolPolls

2024 Electoral College - Whitmer vs Sununu - National Summary

Election GraphsJan 7

Whitmer vs. Sununu tipping point change:

Whitmer by 0.5% in IA/VA
⇩⇩⇩⇩⇩
Whitmer by 3.5% in VA

More info:
https://electiongraphs.com/2024ec/?Dem=Whitmer&Rep=Sununu&ts=1767805415

#USPolPolls

2024 Electoral College - Whitmer vs Sununu - National Summary

Show threadElection GraphsNov 9, 2024
@jenzi In terms of bias, I ( @abulsme ) am personally on the Democratic side, but I try to keep my biases out of EG. The main biases are 1) We include all polls, even the partisan ones, and 2) The probabilistic models assume previous poll errors are predictive of what may happen the current time, which in this case means they essentially assumed polls were probably underestimating Trump again. Which in this case turned out to be correct. (Although I personally wish that hadn't been the case.)
Show threadElection GraphsNov 9, 2024
@jenzi Thanks for following along. If anything, polls underestimated Trump for the third time in a row. But in the end the Election Graphs categorization view got two states wrong (Wisconsin and Michigan), but the “Uniform Swing" median case was exactly on the dot. So we didn't do that badly.
Election GraphsNov 7, 2024

There is a new blog post from Election Graphs!

Check out "Preliminary Results Comparison" now.

#USPol #Election2024 #Harris #Trump #polls

https://electiongraphs.com/blog/2024/11/07/preliminary-results-comparison/

Preliminary Results Comparison – Election Graphs

Election GraphsNov 7, 2024
And sometime since I last checked, Arizona was finally called too, so we end up with Trump winning by 86, as expected since Tuesday night. #USPol #Election2024 #Harris #Trump
Election GraphsNov 6, 2024
Election GraphsNov 6, 2024
Nevada called now too. Range of possibilities now goes from Trump by 34 to Trump by 86. But Trump leads in both uncalled states, so probably Trump by 86. #USPol #Election2024 #Harris #Trump
Election GraphsNov 6, 2024

Michigan was called too. Range of possibilities now goes from Trump by 64 to Trump by 86. Only thing that is left is Arizona, and Trump leads there, so we will probably end with Trump by 86.

Only two states (Wisconsin and Michigan) ended up different from the Election Graphs categorization model, and the median for the Uniform Swing model called the Trump by 86 exactly.

#USPol #Election2024 #Harris #Trump