Website | https://dlaa.me |
GitHub | https://github.com/DavidAnson |
Website | https://dlaa.me |
GitHub | https://github.com/DavidAnson |
@augieray @Susan60 The probability of not getting infected on each of N rides is 0.9825^N, so the probability of escaping infection after a month of rides under these conditions is ~0.35. Which leads to the conclusion that the probability of getting infected by ANY of 60 rides at 1.75% each is around 65%.
Which is uncomfortably high - but not guaranteed. :)
@augieray @Susan60 Probabilities don’t sum quite like that. In this case, a 1.75% chance of being infected per ride corresponds to a probability of 0.0175. A month of train rides is 60 trips and there are many ways to get infected in 60 random tries, but only one way to stay healthy and that’s to not get infected EVERY ride. The probability of not getting infected on a single ride is 1 - 0.0175 = 0.9825.
(cont)