John OverholtWho called it an index instead of
Brian Gordon
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I do research on strategy and innovation, work with firms innovating on the scientific and technology frontiers, have a background in the cognitive sciences, and read widely in philosophy of science, metascience, and cognitive neuroscience/cognition.
@svateboje that is what I suspected. I’m still most active over there, but mostly due to inertia. But it’s increasingly quite as the network effects go into reverse.
Brent GoldfarbThat’s about right. I learned that the narrative pushed Tesla a long way, and perhaps without it, Tesla may not have had resources to scale.
But Tesla’s mass production capabilities are not a differentiator, nor the batteries.
Adrian Saville.@brentdg2 @strategy - Musk's hype, bluster, and hubris have defied gravity and common sense for an amazingly long time, and take on proportions of the South Sea bubble. Free cashflow ROIC is like gravity. It pulls hard. As a rocketeer, Musk knows all about this fierce force - even if he pretends for a while that it doesn't exist. After the fall, the case study. #Lookingforheadshakingemoji.
@brentdg2 @strategy such a great run down of the Tesla case (and of disruption theory). What have we learned since you wrote this? The incumbents continue to invest heavily in product and manufacturing. The supply chain has developed in depth. The autonomy narrative has gone sideways and a number of players have exited (eg Uber’s Pittsburgh operations). The virtual power company story stalled. One the plus side, Tesla’s ability to scale has impressed. What am I missing?
This, written five years ago, seems to have weathered the test of time fairly well. $TSLA #tesla #musk
Of course, with a $340B valuation, this is still way above where it was in 2017, but the logic of the case I put forward holds up well. Tesla the car company is way overvalued. So expect continued free fall unless Musk can turn the magic story switch back on.
@strategy
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/6/26/15872468/tesla-gm-ford-valuation-justifying-disruption
For a long time analysts have been running around saying winter is coming. https://www.wsj.com/articles/with-new-evs-arriving-brand-loyalty-goes-out-the-window-11672182485 @stategy
LiliAcross a bunch of scientist biographies, I noticed that a lot of scientists were part of a club to discuss science. It's usually something mostly informal that meets about once a month. Some scientists that I know were part of such clubs and developed ideas there are Norbert Weiner, Ramon y Cahal, Alan Turing, Pyotr Kapitsa, among others. Counting down to the new year, I'll be posting about the societies that have fascinated me.
@rohit this really captures the essence of Knightian Uncertainty.
rohit krishnanmy current take is that business today is like science in the age of alchemy: people mixing things together going "look, phosphorus!", crediting success to their brilliant identification of universal truths and the failures to vagaries of the gods.