Brent GoldfarbDec 28, 2022

This, written five years ago, seems to have weathered the test of time fairly well. $TSLA #tesla #musk

Of course, with a $340B valuation, this is still way above where it was in 2017, but the logic of the case I put forward holds up well. Tesla the car company is way overvalued. So expect continued free fall unless Musk can turn the magic story switch back on.
@strategy

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/6/26/15872468/tesla-gm-ford-valuation-justifying-disruption

Why Tesla is overhyped — and overvalued

Tesla and the deep problems with “disruption” theory.

Vox
Show threadBrian Gordon
@brentdg2 @strategy such a great run down of the Tesla case (and of disruption theory). What have we learned since you wrote this? The incumbents continue to invest heavily in product and manufacturing. The supply chain has developed in depth. The autonomy narrative has gone sideways and a number of players have exited (eg Uber’s Pittsburgh operations). The virtual power company story stalled. One the plus side, Tesla’s ability to scale has impressed. What am I missing?
Dec 28, 2022 at 9:36pmWeb
Show threadBrent GoldfarbDec 29, 2022

@BrianRGordon @strategy

That’s about right. I learned that the narrative pushed Tesla a long way, and perhaps without it, Tesla may not have had resources to scale.

But Tesla’s mass production capabilities are not a differentiator, nor the batteries.