List out what you know for sure and what you don't. Be honest about both sides of that split. Give each unknown a range of likelihood instead of just yes or no. Figure out which gaps you can actually fill with more effort or research. Set clear signals that would tell you to change course. And write down your assumptions so you can learn from the results later, whether things go well or badly. (2/5)

Some principles worth keeping in mind: know the difference between what you believe and what you can actually prove. Aim for decisions you can walk back, not decisions that are perfect on paper. Get your information from a mix of sources so you're not just hearing one version of things. (3/5)

Here's where people often go wrong: they treat a gut feeling as if it were real analysis. They skip over how often something actually happens in the first place. They fixate on whatever number or idea showed up first and can't let it go. (4/5)