Friday 3-20 #bubblewatch

Sorry, I didn't update bubblewatch yesterday. Here is the catch-up: the market closed down in a big way yesterday, beginning the sixth straight week of general market downturn.

> Wall St Week Ahead Persistent Iran war, energy price surge set to sway wavering stocks. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-week-ahead-persistent-iran-war-energy-price-surge-set-loom-over-stocks-2026-03-20/

So, where are we now?

IDX Week Month

Dow -2.11% -8.16%
NASDAQ -2.07% -5.41%
S&P -1.90% -5.83%
FTSE -3.34% -7.19%

Saturday update:

For those playing along from home, we are more than halfway to the magic 10% drop called a 'Correction in the Market' and the weekly value drops are accelerating. The drops are across the board and Finance stocks are especially hard hit this week.

#AI, and Tech stocks in general, are down with the rest of the market, but those companies not yet making a profit and still relying on burning VC money to operate (all the non-chipmaker AI except Microsoft) are in trouble.

[contd]

With inflation fears being driven hard by oil prices and the distinct possibility the oil crisis will continue into the summer, the next one or two rounds of VC money is likely to be curtailed or even dry up as the Vulture Capitalists look to preserve their hordes from a possible market collapse.

And the chipmakers themselves are looking at significantly higher costs for their raw materials for at least a year, especially helium now that Oman's infrastructure has been bombed.

[contd]

IOW? Less money invested, higher costs all around, and banks are especially hard hit – meaning large loans more difficult to come by even if you can afford the higher interest rates.

If this doesn't pop the bubble within a month or two? Either I've been wrong about it all along or the VC are so determined to keep pumping money in they are willing to beggar themselves or a miracle occurs and the looming economic issues disappear in a puff of smoke…

[fin]

Monday 3-23 #bubblewatch

The rollercoaster is back today, and for the same reason it ran around the track last week: Trump said something they wanted to hear, even though every time he's done that in the past it turned out to be a lie.

The market has no common sense and no memory. Just kneejerk responses.

> Wall Street indexes rise after Trump postpones strikes on Iran's power plants. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-fall-escalating-iran-conflict-dims-rate-cut-hopes-2026-03-23/

As before, I fully expect the market to be down even further by the end of the week.

Tuesday 3-24 #bubblewatch

More of the rollercoaster ride today.

> Wall Street indexes mixed on rising yields, worries about Middle East war. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-dip-middle-east-uncertainty-tempers-relief-rally-2026-03-24/

Bonus stagflation mention:

> "It's sort of this double whammy ​that we've been in for the market where higher oil prices and higher rates are both putting downward pressure on equities. That's a pretty sort of stagflationary backdrop, which, needless to say, is not a positive backdrop for the stock market," said Kevin Gordon…

Wednesday 3-25 #bubblewatch

Today, again, they are believing the lies. It's entirely possible I will be wrong and they will also believe the lies tomorrow, in which case the market might break it's (going on six weeks) downturn.

> Wall Street advances as investors bet on Mideast de-escalation. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-mideast-ceasefire-prospects-lift-sentiment-2026-03-25/

Mind you, the indexes are not up *much*. Only finance stocks saw more than a 1% jump and the overall trend over the last week and month is still losses.

Thursday 3-26 #bubblewatch

And, as I expected, despite Trump goosing the market for a few days with a volley of lies the sixth week of the market downturn still ended down overall. Tech stocks took the biggest bath today, but all indexes are down for the day and for the week.

> Trading Day: Sell everything (except oil). https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-03-26/

(FWIW: The market downturn started on a Friday a month and a half ago, so I'm counting the weeks as Friday to Thursday.)

Friday 3-27 #bubblewatch

As we start the seventh straight week of market downturn the monthly value changes are inching ever closer to that magic 10% 'Market Correction' number.

> Stocks stumble to lowest levels in over six months as Middle East tensions weigh. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-subdued-iran-strike-delay-offers-limited-relief-2026-03-27/

So, where are we now?

IDX Week Month

Dow -0.88% -7.77%
NASDAQ -3.18% -7.54%
S&P -2.03% -7.35%
FTSE +0.49% -8.64%

Monday 3-30 #bubblewatch

Looks like Trump is finally losing credibility with the market, as today's Iran War lies failed to cause a rally and only reduced the losses a bit.

> S&P 500, Nasdaq ease as investors weigh Middle East conflict outlook. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-stock-futures-edge-up-after-selloff-mideast-conflict-remains-focus-2026-03-30/

> "When the messages seem good, *to the extent they are believed*, it helps ​the market. If something they say implies a more aggressive approach, the market sells off." [emphasis added]

Related:

> Exclusive: US Treasury to consult with insurance regulators on private credit lenders, sources say. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-treasury-consult-with-insurance-regulators-private-credit-lenders-sources-say-2026-03-30/

There are two areas where private credit is overextended: #RealEstate (as in 2008) and #AI. For this we can thank deregulation and lack of oversight. This seems like a signal the oversight is coming back.

The question is? Are we talking, 'too little, too late'?

Tuesday 3-31 #bubblewatch

Days like today I don't even want to post a bubblewatch. Not because the market is doing something I think is incredibly stupid (it is), but because it's meaningless in the long run and I fully expect a reversal within days.

But anyway? They are back to believing the lies about Iran again…

> Trading Day: Q1 ends with a BANG! https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-03-31/

FWIW? Values are mostly still down for the week and entirely down for the month.

Bubblewatch followup:

Queued up for pulling the markets down tomorrow? The February USA jobs report is out – and it's grim reading.

> U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/february-2026-jobs-report.html

The hiring rate is just 3.1%, the worst since April 2020 at the height of the COVID shutdown.

> “We do not think that this is a harbinger of progressively worse jobs prints coming down the road, but the risk of a downturn has certainly increased.”

Wednesday 4-01 #bubblewatch

I guess this is an appropriate day for the market to show us how easily it is fooled.

> Wall Street ends higher on speculation about end to Iran war. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-climb-iran-war-de-escalation-optimism-lifts-sentiment-2026-04-01/

That said? They aren't all fooled. Values didn't jump near as much as they did yesterday. Yesterday's USA Jobs Report may have something to do with that.

FWIW? CNN's 'Fear and Greed Index' is still firmly stuck in 'Extreme Fear'. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

Also? here's some quick #bubblewatch reading for you!

> US financial advisors brace for growing array of risks in second quarter. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-financial-advisors-brace-growing-array-risks-second-quarter-2026-04-01/

Thursday 4-02 #bubblewatch

NOTE: Reuters is now requiring a subscription, so I'm switching to CNN for the daily market recap.

This is the first week in the last month and a half which ended up, theoretically breaking the down streak. That said, the irrational exuberance of earlier in the week has ended, with today a bit more restrained.

> Stocks are volatile, oil soars as Trump rattles markets with lack of clear exit plan. https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/02/investing/us-stocks-iran

Oil prices are up.

Friday 4-03 #bubblewatch

I was busy and didn't update bubblewatch yesterday. So this is a catch-up. But nothing really new to report anyway.

Note: I'm using Reuters for the recap, it's free to read again.

> Wall St Week Ahead Inflation in focus for markets jostled by Middle East war signals. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/wall-st-week-ahead-inflation-focus-markets-jostled-by-middle-east-war-signals-2026-04-03/

So, where are we now?

IDX Week Month

Dow +2.86% -4.12%
NASDAQ +2.20% -3.82%
S&P +3.36% -3.43%
FTSE +4.70% -0.46%

Monday 4-06 #bubblewatch

Stock market mixed today, but even the gainers aren't gaining much.

> Equities gain, oil settles higher as investors watch US-Iran standoff. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-04-06/

Surprisingly the Orange One's Easter 'mad king' outburst hasn't sent the market into a tailspin. Meanwhile the dollar is tanking and oil prices continue to rise.

There is some #AI-specific news today.

> Nvidia acquisition of SchedMD sparks worry among AI specialists about software access. https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-acquisition-schedmd-sparks-worry-among-ai-specialists-about-software-2026-04-06/

Nvidia now controls the widely used utility 'Slurm':

> "A niche acquisition by Nvidia (NVDA.O), has raised concerns among artificial-intelligence and supercomputer specialists who see the move as a test of the biggest AI chip company's commitment to maintaining ​a fair playing field for chip rivals and AI data center builders."

Tuesday 4-07 #bubblewatch

Today (and finally), Trump's threats to 'destroy an entire civilization' have reversed the market's recent gains.

> Wall Street off session lows as Trump's Iran deadline looms. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-inch-lower-investors-assess-mideast-developments-2026-04-07/

Meanwhile oil prices continue to rise.

Related:

> The vibes are off at #OpenAI. OpenAI is juggling public controversies, strategy shifts, and increasing competition. https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/908513/the-vibes-are-off-at-openai

Given recent reporting about Sam Altman (and his lack of ethics or truthfulness) this reporting about his company isn't surprising. I honestly believe OpenAI, and many/most other #AI companies) are 'paper edifices' soaking up investor money without the ability to pay *any* return, much less pay off their bets.

Which is why I bubblewatch…

Wednesday 4-08 #bubblewatch

The market went completely nuts today, with huge gains; all predicated on the announcement of a ceasefire in the #Iran war.

> Wall Street ends sharply higher on US-Iran ceasefire. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-jump-relief-middle-east-ceasefire-2026-04-08/

Given the ceasefire is already being violated it seems possible we might see an equivalent crash tomorrow. Especially if there is another deranged Truth Social rant overnight.

All this is making it hard to separate out #AI #bubble action from general market crazy.

Related:

> OpenAI IPO proceeds — even as CFO says the company is ‘not ready’. https://pivot-to-ai.com/2026/04/08/openai-ipo-proceeds-even-as-cfo-says-the-company-is-not-ready/

*They are actually excluding their Chief Financial Officer from some discussions as they ramp up for the IPO.*

To my mind, no further proof is needed of the impending implosion of the company and/or the #AI #bubble in general. This is what you do when you are in a rush to cash in before your whole house of cards collapses.

Thursday 4-09 #bubblewatch

The headline says 'ends higher' and it's mostly true. But, in fact, it is 'barely higher' and some indexes are losers – it should read 'mixed'.

> Wall Street ends higher as Middle East peace talks lift sentiment. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-dip-over-shaky-mideast-truce-inflation-focus-2026-04-09/

Since the USA Administration is continuing to pretend the ceasefire is operational, despite both Iran and Israel violating it and no ships through the Strait, apparently the market has decided to go along and pretend as well.

Friday 4-10 #bubblewatch

In February and March we had a six-week long downturn which nearly brought the market into 'Correction' territory. Then the Iran war upended the table and the market has been scrambling back and forth as the Whitehouse lies and reality disproves them. Today is more of the same:

> Wall St mixed, set for weekly gains as investors watch Middle East negotiations. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-subdued-ahead-inflation-data-mideast-focus-2026-04-10/

Maybe we should just lean back and enjoy the rollercoaster ride?

Monday 4-13 #bubblewatch

Stocks mixed again today, oil prices up. The triumph of hope and manipulation over cold reality continues.

> Wall Street indexes gain as investors hold out hope for US-Iran resolution. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/wall-street-futures-drop-after-us-iran-peace-talks-fail-2026-04-13/

Again I feel like I should suspend bubblewatch until the market starts acting with a minimal degree of rationality. None of the market moves for the last two plus weeks have made sense or been meaningful.

Tuesday 4-14 #bubblewatch *suspended*

After much consideration – and today's publication of the following article – I am suspending daily bubblewatch market recaps.

> War is over for Wall Street, while oil drags down bonds and gold. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/war-is-over-wall-street-while-oil-drags-down-bonds-gold-2026-04-14/

I mean, to begin with? The war is *not over*. This is just more of the market going by vibes and not rational thinking. Moreover, this was true since the war started and will likely continue to be true for the foreseeable future.

[contd]

Because of these weird market dynamics and because the goal of #bubblewatch is to see if I can capture the moment the #AI #bubble is punctured, I see no value in wasting my time talking about an irrational market driven by non-AI forces.

Still, couldn't an irrational market puncture the bubble as a side effect? Certainly! And I'll be looking for such market moves and will update this thread if I the see signs, along with any other related AI news.

But the daily recap is on hold.

[fin]

#bubblewatch update:

The market is still flailing wildly from the Iran war, but at least we are starting to get a little more high-level attention to the #AI #bubble.

> Warren draws ‘parallels’ between AI ‘bubble’ and financial crisis. https://thehill.com/business/5846721-warren-ai-debt-risk-crash/

> “The parallels to the 2008 financial crisis are striking: the reckless behavior of a few billionaires and Big Tech CEOs has turned a promising technology into a structural risk to our financial system…”

#economy

#bubblewatch update:

One of the early #AI VCs says it's nearly time to cash out.

> The AI boom won't last, a top VC warns, as he urges startups to cash out. https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-startup-founders-warning-elad-gilsell-while-boom-lasts-2026-4

> "In the AI era, most companies, including those that are ramping revenue today, will see the market, competition, and adoption, turn on them."

> For founders, that creates a narrow window. Selling or merging while valuations remain high could maximize returns before conditions shift.

#bubblewatch update:

Churn from the Iran war and energy markets aside, the #AI #bubble is still there and the question of eventual profitability has not gone away.

> Nasdaq, S&P 500 end lower on renewed AI growth worries ahead of big tech earnings. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-index-futures-fall-middle-east-stalemate-keeps-oil-risks-focus-2026-04-28/

This week it's the big players on deck:

> First-quarter earnings ​season shifts into overdrive this week, with five of the companies in the Magnificent Seven group of AI-related megacap firms expected to post results.

#bubblewatch update:

Some #AI #bubble weekend reading for you.

> Is the AI bubble about to burst, or is it recalibrating? Massive investment is flowing into AI, but rising costs and inconsistent returns are testing whether the boom is sustainable and can deliver long-term business value. https://www.techtarget.com/searchenterpriseai/feature/Is-the-AI-bubble-about-to-burst-or-is-it-recalibrating

> A famed permabear says a pattern forming in markets shows how the stock bubble could ultimately burst. https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-bubble-burst-pattern-outlook-john-hussman-government-debt-2026-4

#bubblewatch update:

Haven't updated bubblewatch in a while because the stock market is still stupid from war and oil shocks. But Gold and Geopolitics has an interesting post about how NVidia's earnings reports are *great*, but their stock values aren't quite reflecting the great.

> Last call. https://no01.substack.com/p/last-call

> "… it’s not a stock market, is it, it’s two factories in a trench coat pretending to be an economy, and not one person looked under the coat."

#AI

#bubblewatch update:

Michael Burry is comparing rising computer hardware demand in 2000 to the same today. But he's quite deliberately leaving something unsaid…

> https://substack.com/@michaeljburry/note/c-264498926

The unsaid part? The 2000 demand evaporated within months as the economy #crashed from the dotcom collapse…

#AI #bubble

#bubblewatch update:

Ed Zitron, again, points out the obvious.

> #AI Doesn't Have ROI. https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-doesnt-have-roi/

> If you can’t measure how good something is, how much it might cost, or what your return on investment might be, it’s fair to ask why you’re even paying for it in the first place.

> … AI companies have actively conspired to mislead the world about the true costs of AI, and it was working great right up until they decided to try charging what it actually cost.

#bubblewatch update:

> Chip slump erases $1.3 trillion in stock market value.

> U.S.-traded chipmakers plunged on Friday, losing about $1.3 trillion in market value, with deep losses in AI heavy ​hitters including Nvidia, Micron Technolog, and Advanced Micro Devices as Broadcom's weak report earlier this week reverberated across Wall Street.

So, Broadcom has a fever and the entire stock market get sick?

[contd]

One reason #AI is a #bubble is the extent to which LLM providers and chipmakers represent effectively a third of the entire value of the stock market. They are the tail waving the whole dog.

In a healthy market one sector hitting headwinds doesn't represent a huge loss for entire indexes. But when that sector is overinflated in value – and that value can evaporate overnight *because it is inflated* – this is *exactly* what happens.

[fin]

#bubblewatch update:

Ed Zitron again with the must-reads:

> #AI Is Slowing Down. https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-is-slowing-down/

The problem, as stated by Ed?

> AI Cannot Afford To Slow Down — It Needs $3 Trillion Or More In Revenue By End Of 2030 To Sustain Its Existence.

And yet.

> … the combined compute demand of every single AI company in the world doesn’t currently reach $100 billion …

Meanwhile.

> [There] are signs that AI’s revenue growth is slowing, and it’s likely going to slow further …

#bubblewatch update:

As SpaceX slouches it's way towards an unearned IPO, #AI stocks in general fall flat.

> Trading Day: Sizzling AI now fizzling. https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-06-10/

> The AI frenzy is losing its luster, ironically just as the world's biggest IPO is about to land. Or perhaps they're not totally unconnected. Either way, AI and tech stocks are under pressure and are dragging the broader indices down ​with them.

Rip off the bandaid! Just pop the damn #bubble now!

Jeez…

#bubblewatch update:

As they near their IPOs, #AI companies must choose between increasing prices to shore up their balance sheets or losing customers as prices approach their actual costs.

It's a lose/lose situation.

> OpenAI Execs Are Panicking. https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/openai-execs-panicking-price-anthropic

> Put simply, the horrible economics of AI are finally starting to rear their ugly head. Astronomical capital expenditures by AI companies are starting to trickle down to users — and they’re not liking what they’re seeing.