Even if it doesn't crash, unless something changes soon there are likely to be effects on the market ranging from a 'Correction' to a 'Bear Market'.
And there's a good chance the coming global hiccup in the market is the final straw required for people to start pulling their money out of the AI bubble.
Meaning we might be in for a more general market crash and associated global economic impacts, but even if not? The AI bubble is that much more likely to pop.
Because of war…
[fin]
Monday 3-09 #bubblewatch
So, one serving of TACO and the market rallies.
> Wall St ends higher as hopes of Iran war resolution offset inflation fears. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-slump-iran-war-drags-oil-near-120-stokes-inflation-worries-2026-03-09/
This thread is about the #AI #bubble and economics, not politics. So I'll skip editorializing and instead complain about the idiots running market values up and down based on their feelings and the promises of a known serial liar.
Also? It's not over. I fully expect more rollercoaster action over the next week…
Tuesday 3-10 #bubblewatch
More of yesterday. I'm not going to bother commenting.
> Wall Street gains as oil slides, markets monitor Middle Eastern developments. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-hopes-early-end-middle-east-conflict-2026-03-10/
Tech shares led U.S. stocks modestly higher on Tuesday as hopes for an earlier-than-expected end to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran persisted against a backdrop of renewed military threats and ongoing worries of economic stagflation.
Update for 3-10:
After I posted today's #bubblewatch the market went kerblewie. (kerblooie?)
> Wall St closes mixed on ramped-up Middle East tensions. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-hopes-early-end-middle-east-conflict-2026-03-10/
NOTE: The spellchecker is proposing 'bloodsucker' as the proper spelling for 'kerblooie'. I'm not sure what to make of that…
Tech shares led U.S. stocks modestly higher on Tuesday as hopes for an earlier-than-expected end to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran persisted against a backdrop of renewed military threats and ongoing worries of economic stagflation.
Wednesday 3-11 #bubblewatch
More rollercoaster. The USA Administration lies about the Iran war, stocks go up; oil goes down. The lies are exposed, stocks go down; oil goes up. It must be stomach churning for the traders on that ride – but I want to know why they buy the lies in the first place.
> S&P 500, Dow end lower as escalating Iran war sours risk appetite. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-rise-hopes-early-end-middle-east-conflict-2026-03-10/
Note that this is actually from early morning YESTERDAY, simply updated for today's market close.
Tech shares led U.S. stocks modestly higher on Tuesday as hopes for an earlier-than-expected end to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran persisted against a backdrop of renewed military threats and ongoing worries of economic stagflation.
But that's not all. First? CNN's 'Fear and Greed Index' is hovering right above 'Extreme Fear' and only current stock prices and market churn are keeping it from bottoming out.
> https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
And pulling that needle down? The smart money is moving to 'safe havens' in a big way.
But all of this is about general market forces, not the #AI #bubble specifically. So, what about that?
Well, for that I'm going to pass the baton over to Ed Zitron; who, once again, is doing the math and showing us the other journalists and analysts are failures who simply report the BS numbers they were fed; not bothering to verify them against reality.
> The AI Bubble Is An Information War. https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-bubble-is-an-information-war/
> "Yet again, the media is simply repeating what they’ve been told versus reading publicly-available information."
> "… this sounds exactly like a ponzi scheme!"
Read it all.
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If you are paying attention you may have already noticed, but the common thread for today is people uncritically believing outright lies, then being slapped with the reality fish in the face, and then believing the next set of lies.
Round and round and up and down the rollercoaster goes. But you always end up in the same place as if you had never gotten on in the first place.
Thursday 3-12 #bubblewatch
You know that big drop before the rollercoaster inverts and screams around a corner with you hanging upside down?
We just went over the top and started dropping. Don't be surprised if you lose your keys and wallet. And don't look at your investments today…
> Wall St dives as Iran war heats up, soaring crude prompts flight to safety. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-futures-drop-middle-east-tensions-lift-oil-above-100-2026-03-12/
The CNN 'Fear and Greed Index' has dropped all the way down to 'Extreme Fear'.
Friday 3-13 #bubblewatch
Friday the 13th is an unlucky day for stock values as we enter a fifth straight week of market downturn.
> Wall St drops, set for weekly loss as war on Iran fuels inflation worries. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-subdued-middle-east-unrest-fuels-inflation-worries-data-awaited-2026-03-13/
So, where are we now?
IDX Week Month
Dow -1.76% -5.74%
NASDAQ -1.13% -1.84%
S&P -1.37% -2.78%
FTSE -0.23% -1.77%
Weekend #bubblewatch reading. The thesis? "Because bubbles are good, really."
> Even Silicon Valley Says That AI Is a Bubble. An AI crash could bring down the economy. Some in the tech world think that’s the price of progress. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2026/03/ai-bubble-defenders-silicon-valley/686340/
Archive link:
Monday 3-16 #bubblewatch
And the rollercoaster goes for yet another round. Up today.
> Stocks rise as oil prices fall; flurry of central bank meetings on tap. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-03-16/
Once again? This is just stupid people believing obvious lies.
> "There's things out there that are leading people to believe that we're going to be able to open and defend the Straits of Hormuz. I don't know that I'm buying that one, but that's what's causing the rally," said Stephen Massocca…
NOTE: If it hasn't happened already, expect Iran to start accepting million dollar 'tolls' for ships to safely transit the Straits of Hormuz. This seems like an obvious next move since they have limited options for getting money right now, other than handouts from Russia and China.
This war isn't ending anytime soon unless the USA Administration is willing to unilaterally back off and walk away.
Tuesday 3-17 #bubblewatch
Slight gains today. But no indication gains will continue through the week.
> Wall Street ends up as traders focus on Fed. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-futures-slip-higher-oil-prices-fuel-inflation-worries-ahead-fed-2026-03-17/
In fact, there is even some #AI #bubble action as:
> "Worries about pricey AI-related stocks, along with uncertainty about the Middle East conflict, have dropped the S&P 500 about 4% from its record high close on January 27."
Some #bubblewatch reading.
> AI still doesn't work very well, businesses are faking it, and a reckoning is coming. https://www.theregister.com/2026/03/17/ai_businesses_faking_it_reckoning_coming_codestrap/
> Deeks argues that if you built an AI system from first principles, it would look drastically different from what's offered today. All the talk about the disappearance of software engineering and office work, he said, "we don't subscribe to any of that."
The central thesis? We don't even know the right metrics to apply to #AI use in #business.
[contd]
And then there's the whole issue of liability and insurance coverage.
> Smiley added: "The question here is if it's all so great, why are the insurance underwriters going to great lengths to prohibit coverage for these things? They're generally pretty good at risk profiling."
[fin]
Wednesday 3-18 #bubblewatch
And now we see why I barely reacted to the market being a bit up Monday and yesterday … today it's down further than those two days pushed it up. We remain on track for a fifth straight week of market downturn.
> Wall Street ends sharply lower after Fed keeps rates unchanged. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/wall-st-futures-gain-oil-prices-slip-focus-fed-outlook-2026-03-18/
Also? Treasury yields are up in anticipation of higher inflation and no interest cut from the Fed.
NOTE: Higher interest rates are bad for #AI infra buildout.
Thursday 3-19 #bubblewatch
And today ends the fifth straight week of general market downturn.
> Wall Street ends down as traders see no rate cuts before 2027. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-dip-soaring-oil-prices-fed-outlook-spook-investors-2026-03-19/
FWIW? When the Fed and other central banks say 'inflation risk'? What they mean is, "Here it comes."
[contd]
Meanwhile, even chipmakers touting profits from the #AI #bubble are taking hits:
> "Micron Technology dropped after the memory chipmaker's quarterly forecast failed to impress investors who have sent its shares soaring over 50% this year on strong demand related to AI. Nvidia, the world's most valuable company, also lost ground."
But hardest hit seems to be finance stocks. Which is also not good for AI, as banks pull out of financing debt for data center buildouts.
[fin]
Friday 3-20 #bubblewatch
Sorry, I didn't update bubblewatch yesterday. Here is the catch-up: the market closed down in a big way yesterday, beginning the sixth straight week of general market downturn.
> Wall St Week Ahead Persistent Iran war, energy price surge set to sway wavering stocks. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-week-ahead-persistent-iran-war-energy-price-surge-set-loom-over-stocks-2026-03-20/
So, where are we now?
IDX Week Month
Dow -2.11% -8.16%
NASDAQ -2.07% -5.41%
S&P -1.90% -5.83%
FTSE -3.34% -7.19%
Saturday update:
For those playing along from home, we are more than halfway to the magic 10% drop called a 'Correction in the Market' and the weekly value drops are accelerating. The drops are across the board and Finance stocks are especially hard hit this week.
#AI, and Tech stocks in general, are down with the rest of the market, but those companies not yet making a profit and still relying on burning VC money to operate (all the non-chipmaker AI except Microsoft) are in trouble.
[contd]
With inflation fears being driven hard by oil prices and the distinct possibility the oil crisis will continue into the summer, the next one or two rounds of VC money is likely to be curtailed or even dry up as the Vulture Capitalists look to preserve their hordes from a possible market collapse.
And the chipmakers themselves are looking at significantly higher costs for their raw materials for at least a year, especially helium now that Oman's infrastructure has been bombed.
[contd]
IOW? Less money invested, higher costs all around, and banks are especially hard hit – meaning large loans more difficult to come by even if you can afford the higher interest rates.
If this doesn't pop the bubble within a month or two? Either I've been wrong about it all along or the VC are so determined to keep pumping money in they are willing to beggar themselves or a miracle occurs and the looming economic issues disappear in a puff of smoke…
[fin]
Monday 3-23 #bubblewatch
The rollercoaster is back today, and for the same reason it ran around the track last week: Trump said something they wanted to hear, even though every time he's done that in the past it turned out to be a lie.
The market has no common sense and no memory. Just kneejerk responses.
> Wall Street indexes rise after Trump postpones strikes on Iran's power plants. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-fall-escalating-iran-conflict-dims-rate-cut-hopes-2026-03-23/
As before, I fully expect the market to be down even further by the end of the week.
Tuesday 3-24 #bubblewatch
More of the rollercoaster ride today.
> Wall Street indexes mixed on rising yields, worries about Middle East war. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-dip-middle-east-uncertainty-tempers-relief-rally-2026-03-24/
Bonus stagflation mention:
> "It's sort of this double whammy that we've been in for the market where higher oil prices and higher rates are both putting downward pressure on equities. That's a pretty sort of stagflationary backdrop, which, needless to say, is not a positive backdrop for the stock market," said Kevin Gordon…
Wednesday 3-25 #bubblewatch
Today, again, they are believing the lies. It's entirely possible I will be wrong and they will also believe the lies tomorrow, in which case the market might break it's (going on six weeks) downturn.
> Wall Street advances as investors bet on Mideast de-escalation. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-rise-mideast-ceasefire-prospects-lift-sentiment-2026-03-25/
Mind you, the indexes are not up *much*. Only finance stocks saw more than a 1% jump and the overall trend over the last week and month is still losses.
Thursday 3-26 #bubblewatch
And, as I expected, despite Trump goosing the market for a few days with a volley of lies the sixth week of the market downturn still ended down overall. Tech stocks took the biggest bath today, but all indexes are down for the day and for the week.
> Trading Day: Sell everything (except oil). https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-03-26/
(FWIW: The market downturn started on a Friday a month and a half ago, so I'm counting the weeks as Friday to Thursday.)
Friday 3-27 #bubblewatch
As we start the seventh straight week of market downturn the monthly value changes are inching ever closer to that magic 10% 'Market Correction' number.
> Stocks stumble to lowest levels in over six months as Middle East tensions weigh. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-subdued-iran-strike-delay-offers-limited-relief-2026-03-27/
So, where are we now?
IDX Week Month
Dow -0.88% -7.77%
NASDAQ -3.18% -7.54%
S&P -2.03% -7.35%
FTSE +0.49% -8.64%
Monday 3-30 #bubblewatch
Looks like Trump is finally losing credibility with the market, as today's Iran War lies failed to cause a rally and only reduced the losses a bit.
> S&P 500, Nasdaq ease as investors weigh Middle East conflict outlook. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/us-stock-futures-edge-up-after-selloff-mideast-conflict-remains-focus-2026-03-30/
> "When the messages seem good, *to the extent they are believed*, it helps the market. If something they say implies a more aggressive approach, the market sells off." [emphasis added]
Related:
> Exclusive: US Treasury to consult with insurance regulators on private credit lenders, sources say. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-treasury-consult-with-insurance-regulators-private-credit-lenders-sources-say-2026-03-30/
There are two areas where private credit is overextended: #RealEstate (as in 2008) and #AI. For this we can thank deregulation and lack of oversight. This seems like a signal the oversight is coming back.
The question is? Are we talking, 'too little, too late'?
Tuesday 3-31 #bubblewatch
Days like today I don't even want to post a bubblewatch. Not because the market is doing something I think is incredibly stupid (it is), but because it's meaningless in the long run and I fully expect a reversal within days.
But anyway? They are back to believing the lies about Iran again…
> Trading Day: Q1 ends with a BANG! https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-03-31/
FWIW? Values are mostly still down for the week and entirely down for the month.
Bubblewatch followup:
Queued up for pulling the markets down tomorrow? The February USA jobs report is out – and it's grim reading.
> U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/february-2026-jobs-report.html
The hiring rate is just 3.1%, the worst since April 2020 at the height of the COVID shutdown.
> “We do not think that this is a harbinger of progressively worse jobs prints coming down the road, but the risk of a downturn has certainly increased.”
Wednesday 4-01 #bubblewatch
I guess this is an appropriate day for the market to show us how easily it is fooled.
> Wall Street ends higher on speculation about end to Iran war. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-climb-iran-war-de-escalation-optimism-lifts-sentiment-2026-04-01/
That said? They aren't all fooled. Values didn't jump near as much as they did yesterday. Yesterday's USA Jobs Report may have something to do with that.
FWIW? CNN's 'Fear and Greed Index' is still firmly stuck in 'Extreme Fear'. https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
Also? here's some quick #bubblewatch reading for you!
> US financial advisors brace for growing array of risks in second quarter. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-financial-advisors-brace-growing-array-risks-second-quarter-2026-04-01/
Thursday 4-02 #bubblewatch
NOTE: Reuters is now requiring a subscription, so I'm switching to CNN for the daily market recap.
This is the first week in the last month and a half which ended up, theoretically breaking the down streak. That said, the irrational exuberance of earlier in the week has ended, with today a bit more restrained.
> Stocks are volatile, oil soars as Trump rattles markets with lack of clear exit plan. https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/02/investing/us-stocks-iran
Oil prices are up.
Friday 4-03 #bubblewatch
I was busy and didn't update bubblewatch yesterday. So this is a catch-up. But nothing really new to report anyway.
Note: I'm using Reuters for the recap, it's free to read again.
> Wall St Week Ahead Inflation in focus for markets jostled by Middle East war signals. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/wall-st-week-ahead-inflation-focus-markets-jostled-by-middle-east-war-signals-2026-04-03/
So, where are we now?
IDX Week Month
Dow +2.86% -4.12%
NASDAQ +2.20% -3.82%
S&P +3.36% -3.43%
FTSE +4.70% -0.46%
Monday 4-06 #bubblewatch
Stock market mixed today, but even the gainers aren't gaining much.
> Equities gain, oil settles higher as investors watch US-Iran standoff. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2026-04-06/
Surprisingly the Orange One's Easter 'mad king' outburst hasn't sent the market into a tailspin. Meanwhile the dollar is tanking and oil prices continue to rise.
There is some #AI-specific news today.
> Nvidia acquisition of SchedMD sparks worry among AI specialists about software access. https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-acquisition-schedmd-sparks-worry-among-ai-specialists-about-software-2026-04-06/
Nvidia now controls the widely used utility 'Slurm':
> "A niche acquisition by Nvidia (NVDA.O), has raised concerns among artificial-intelligence and supercomputer specialists who see the move as a test of the biggest AI chip company's commitment to maintaining a fair playing field for chip rivals and AI data center builders."
Tuesday 4-07 #bubblewatch
Today (and finally), Trump's threats to 'destroy an entire civilization' have reversed the market's recent gains.
> Wall Street off session lows as Trump's Iran deadline looms. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-inch-lower-investors-assess-mideast-developments-2026-04-07/
Meanwhile oil prices continue to rise.
Related:
> The vibes are off at #OpenAI. OpenAI is juggling public controversies, strategy shifts, and increasing competition. https://www.theverge.com/ai-artificial-intelligence/908513/the-vibes-are-off-at-openai
Given recent reporting about Sam Altman (and his lack of ethics or truthfulness) this reporting about his company isn't surprising. I honestly believe OpenAI, and many/most other #AI companies) are 'paper edifices' soaking up investor money without the ability to pay *any* return, much less pay off their bets.
Which is why I bubblewatch…
Wednesday 4-08 #bubblewatch
The market went completely nuts today, with huge gains; all predicated on the announcement of a ceasefire in the #Iran war.
> Wall Street ends sharply higher on US-Iran ceasefire. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-jump-relief-middle-east-ceasefire-2026-04-08/
Given the ceasefire is already being violated it seems possible we might see an equivalent crash tomorrow. Especially if there is another deranged Truth Social rant overnight.
All this is making it hard to separate out #AI #bubble action from general market crazy.
Related:
> OpenAI IPO proceeds — even as CFO says the company is ‘not ready’. https://pivot-to-ai.com/2026/04/08/openai-ipo-proceeds-even-as-cfo-says-the-company-is-not-ready/
*They are actually excluding their Chief Financial Officer from some discussions as they ramp up for the IPO.*
To my mind, no further proof is needed of the impending implosion of the company and/or the #AI #bubble in general. This is what you do when you are in a rush to cash in before your whole house of cards collapses.
Thursday 4-09 #bubblewatch
The headline says 'ends higher' and it's mostly true. But, in fact, it is 'barely higher' and some indexes are losers – it should read 'mixed'.
> Wall Street ends higher as Middle East peace talks lift sentiment. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-dip-over-shaky-mideast-truce-inflation-focus-2026-04-09/
Since the USA Administration is continuing to pretend the ceasefire is operational, despite both Iran and Israel violating it and no ships through the Strait, apparently the market has decided to go along and pretend as well.
Friday 4-10 #bubblewatch
In February and March we had a six-week long downturn which nearly brought the market into 'Correction' territory. Then the Iran war upended the table and the market has been scrambling back and forth as the Whitehouse lies and reality disproves them. Today is more of the same:
> Wall St mixed, set for weekly gains as investors watch Middle East negotiations. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-futures-subdued-ahead-inflation-data-mideast-focus-2026-04-10/
Maybe we should just lean back and enjoy the rollercoaster ride?
Monday 4-13 #bubblewatch
Stocks mixed again today, oil prices up. The triumph of hope and manipulation over cold reality continues.
> Wall Street indexes gain as investors hold out hope for US-Iran resolution. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/wall-street-futures-drop-after-us-iran-peace-talks-fail-2026-04-13/
Again I feel like I should suspend bubblewatch until the market starts acting with a minimal degree of rationality. None of the market moves for the last two plus weeks have made sense or been meaningful.
Tuesday 4-14 #bubblewatch *suspended*
After much consideration – and today's publication of the following article – I am suspending daily bubblewatch market recaps.
> War is over for Wall Street, while oil drags down bonds and gold. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/war-is-over-wall-street-while-oil-drags-down-bonds-gold-2026-04-14/
I mean, to begin with? The war is *not over*. This is just more of the market going by vibes and not rational thinking. Moreover, this was true since the war started and will likely continue to be true for the foreseeable future.
[contd]
Because of these weird market dynamics and because the goal of #bubblewatch is to see if I can capture the moment the #AI #bubble is punctured, I see no value in wasting my time talking about an irrational market driven by non-AI forces.
Still, couldn't an irrational market puncture the bubble as a side effect? Certainly! And I'll be looking for such market moves and will update this thread if I the see signs, along with any other related AI news.
But the daily recap is on hold.
[fin]
#bubblewatch update:
The market is still flailing wildly from the Iran war, but at least we are starting to get a little more high-level attention to the #AI #bubble.
> Warren draws ‘parallels’ between AI ‘bubble’ and financial crisis. https://thehill.com/business/5846721-warren-ai-debt-risk-crash/
> “The parallels to the 2008 financial crisis are striking: the reckless behavior of a few billionaires and Big Tech CEOs has turned a promising technology into a structural risk to our financial system…”
#bubblewatch update:
One of the early #AI VCs says it's nearly time to cash out.
> The AI boom won't last, a top VC warns, as he urges startups to cash out. https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-startup-founders-warning-elad-gilsell-while-boom-lasts-2026-4
> "In the AI era, most companies, including those that are ramping revenue today, will see the market, competition, and adoption, turn on them."
> For founders, that creates a narrow window. Selling or merging while valuations remain high could maximize returns before conditions shift.
#bubblewatch update:
Churn from the Iran war and energy markets aside, the #AI #bubble is still there and the question of eventual profitability has not gone away.
> Nasdaq, S&P 500 end lower on renewed AI growth worries ahead of big tech earnings. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-index-futures-fall-middle-east-stalemate-keeps-oil-risks-focus-2026-04-28/
This week it's the big players on deck:
> First-quarter earnings season shifts into overdrive this week, with five of the companies in the Magnificent Seven group of AI-related megacap firms expected to post results.
#bubblewatch update:
Some #AI #bubble weekend reading for you.
> Is the AI bubble about to burst, or is it recalibrating? Massive investment is flowing into AI, but rising costs and inconsistent returns are testing whether the boom is sustainable and can deliver long-term business value. https://www.techtarget.com/searchenterpriseai/feature/Is-the-AI-bubble-about-to-burst-or-is-it-recalibrating
> A famed permabear says a pattern forming in markets shows how the stock bubble could ultimately burst. https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-bubble-burst-pattern-outlook-john-hussman-government-debt-2026-4
#bubblewatch update:
Haven't updated bubblewatch in a while because the stock market is still stupid from war and oil shocks. But Gold and Geopolitics has an interesting post about how NVidia's earnings reports are *great*, but their stock values aren't quite reflecting the great.
> Last call. https://no01.substack.com/p/last-call
> "… it’s not a stock market, is it, it’s two factories in a trench coat pretending to be an economy, and not one person looked under the coat."
#bubblewatch update:
Michael Burry is comparing rising computer hardware demand in 2000 to the same today. But he's quite deliberately leaving something unsaid…
> https://substack.com/@michaeljburry/note/c-264498926
The unsaid part? The 2000 demand evaporated within months as the economy #crashed from the dotcom collapse…
Jack William Bell
