RE: https://mastodon.social/@arstechnica/116755644758510150

Kessler Syndome Collision?

Apparently a Chinese rocket has 'broken apart' at an altitude coincident with some Starlink satellites.

What is not stated is the cause of the 'break up'. Which raises the question if the rocket collided with a SpaceX Starlink satellite?

Are we seeing a Kessler Syndrome event?

cc: @sundogplanets @AkaSci

#SpaceX #KesslerSyndrome

@mastodonmigration @sundogplanets

Since the notice at Space-Track.org mentions the breakup of the Chinese Zhuque-2E rocket body, but does not mention Starlink, we should wait for more info before we can conclude or suspect whether Starlink was involved.

News orgs have been slow to pick up on the story.

Jonathan McDowell reported it on Jun 12 referring to the notice from Space-Track.org.

https://www.space-track.org/auth/login

@AkaSci @sundogplanets

Seems like it is very reasonable to ask the question. The cause of the break-up must be known. Is it just a coincidence that it has occurred at the same orbital altitude as a Starlink constellation or is there more to the story?

@AkaSci @mastodonmigration @sundogplanets There is speculation that the breakup came around the time the stage would have relit its engines for disposal.

https://arstechnica.com/space/2026/06/a-chinese-rocket-breaks-apart-dangerously-close-to-the-starlink-constellation/

A Chinese rocket breaks apart dangerously close to the Starlink constellation

The rocket's breakup likely generated 100 to 150 new pieces of space junk.

Ars Technica

@michaelgemar @AkaSci @sundogplanets

"...perhaps around the time the upper stage was expected to perform a disposal burn."

Who is it that is doing this speculating? The ARS Technica author? Or is there some more authoritative source?

@mastodonmigration @sundogplanets @AkaSci

They're trapping us on the hellhole they've turned the Earth into.

@mastodonmigration @sundogplanets @AkaSci Maybe but this orbit is self cleaning to a point where atmosperic drag tends to do orbit things. But SSO on the other hand where they want to put AI server sats stuff can stay up for decades or centuries.
The first Landsat satellite from 1972 is still up there.

@Luna @sundogplanets @AkaSci

Yes. Starlinks mostly orbit at about 550 km. Natural deorbit from there is between 5 and 25 years depending on mass and cross sectional area. Above 1000 km where they want to put their stupid Data Centers In Space is centuries...

https://mastodon.online/@mastodonmigration/116407343907282036

@Luna @sundogplanets @AkaSci

It seems this accident happened at even lower orbit, something do do with cell phone stuff, so it may deorbit even faster.

They say it is below the ISS, which is about 400 km.

@mastodonmigration @sundogplanets @AkaSci

If I were to write an article I would now call it Waiting For Kessler.
It would mention how happy I am that a bunch of stupid ideas will now never get off the ground. (See data centres, reflect orbital)
It would also mention how happy I am about Space X and Starlink being worth nothing just like that.
I would lament, though, about my imminent loss of internet connection (not Starlink) because I live in the bush.

@Arapalla @sundogplanets @AkaSci

It you use one of the geosync services like DirectTV, that will be fine, as they are in a much much higher orbit.

@mastodonmigration @Arapalla @sundogplanets @AkaSci

It's not Friday.
You can push to Kessler unless it's a Friday.

@Arapalla @mastodonmigration @sundogplanets @[email protected] What about ICBMs? Would it make that type of nuclear war impossible?

@mastodonmigration @sundogplanets @AkaSci

Coincidently????

My internet is out and I'm having to drive up my hill to get mobile service and data. 🤷

@mastodonmigration sounds very unlikely: "The good news is that this altitude is low enough for aerodynamic drag to cause most of the Zhuque-2E debris to reenter the atmosphere within a matter of months." @sundogplanets @AkaSci
@benni @mastodonmigration @AkaSci Low orbits are good for not having debris stick around. However, that debris will make many MANY many orbits and cross the orbits of many other functional satellites in those few months.