The strength of your conviction tells you nothing about whether you're right.
It tells you about your appetite.

Be thou not pilled
A Scottish journalist named Charles Mackay published a book about the way crowds lose their minds. Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1841) catalogued tulip speculation, alchemy, the South Sea Bubble, witch hunts, and the slow-burn lunacy of people who grow so attached to an idea that they