RDNA new model of human population and resource usage estimates that population will peak at 11.7-12.4 billion people between 2067 and 2076. Resource replenishment capacity was estimated to be exceeded in 1970. The estimated maximum sustainable population is estimated as 2.5 billion (as in 1950).
Summary: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/05/260526022021.htm
Original paper: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae51aa
Humanity has already exceeded Earth’s limits, study warns
Humanity may already be living far beyond what Earth can sustainably support, according to a sweeping new study analyzing more than 200 years of population and environmental data. Researchers found that while population growth once fueled innovation and expansion, the trend shifted decades ago as the planet’s resources became increasingly strained.