Anthropic: Major software vendors will be bug free in 24 months.
I mean, look, I only have 50+ years of evidence, but I’m just a little doubtful of your marketing team’s laughable assertions.
@petrillic Cocaine does, as cocaine will...

@petrillic I am not defending the overhype nor am I excusing the externalities

Bugs are not unique constructs. They follow common patterns (eg failure to sanitize input). With a large enough corpus, building statistical models of the common failure patterns can lead to identifying other things that have those patterns.

All bugs… no.

30%-50% of common bugs patterns identified… that’s reasonable

@dpp @petrillic there’s another variable you’re not accounting for
@petrillic sign up for Anthropic's incidents email and you will see they themselves do not make even three 9s. Or maybe they don't count unavailability as a bug.

@petrillic Lolol. Really? This was a statement? Omg. No way.

I watched hundreds if not thousands of bugs timeout and get archived after years. 1. No one is going back for those. 2. They are and always have come in faster than the engineering systems can support. LLM or not, there are limits.

Regardless, humans will still be the limitation.

3. Fixing bugs always adds new ones.

@jpsays and then there’s the Slurm machine that is “vibe coding”.
@petrillic uh huh and how's that going to happen
@gildilinie @petrillic Step 1: Be a True Believer™
@drahardja @petrillic maybe the power of fixing bugs was inside of us all along
@gildilinie @drahardja @petrillic yeah it's called testing. That bit I get told by everyone "a couple day's plenty!"

@petrillic earlier this year I asked a stakeholder three questions. The answer to number 2 was fine, but the answers to 1 and 3 were self contradictory

It took quite a bit of follow up to fix the self contradictory nature of the spec I was given

With that in mind, what is a bug?

@petrillic Even if I took that at face value, the absolute hell we’d have to go through for the next 24 months to get there make me want to put down my phone and just walk into the sea.
@petrillic truth is more like “all software becomes completely broken and unusable in under 24 months”
@petrillic Um, what? I will believe that when the someone shows that there's been one claim of that which was actually true...