Mastodawn

https://www.journeyman.cc/~simon/tmp/holyrood_election_2026_wikipedia.ods

Right, I've put a spreadsheet of #Holyrood election data up here that I've reverse engineered from Wikipedia data. It's not perfect but at least it does give numbers to do some analysis from. Feel free to use it in any way you like; but if anyone has a better spreadsheet, I would be really grateful.

#ScotPol
#Holyrood2026

To my surprise, there were a total of 6,353 MORE list votes, across the whole of #Scotland, than constituency votes: that is, someone who DID vote on the list who DID NOT vote on the constituency ballot.

I'm going to guess that those were probably mainly @ScottishGreens voters who could not bring themselves to vote #SNP

The @ScottishGreens received 269,436 FEWER votes on the constituency ballot than they did on the list; the SNP received 251,128 MORE. So that's probably something fairly close to quarter of a million votes -- or 28% of the SNP's total vote -- that #Greens voters lent to the SNP on the constituency.

Right, so, hypothetically, supposing that @ScottishGreens had stood candidates in all constituencies, and supposing that all those quarter million people had voted #Green on the constituency vote, the #SNP would have LOST 17 constituencies as compared to their actual score, and the Greens would have won only 2 additional constituencies -- a net loss on the constituencies of 15 seats for #ScottishIndependence.

/Continued

It's worth pointing out that Angus Robertson did not come second behind Lorna Slater, but third, so if @ScottishGreens had not stood in Edinburgh Central, he might still not have won, and indeed #ScottishLabour might have got it.

Barney Dellar (he/him)

@simon_brooke @ScottishGreens It’s probably hard to tell how people would have voted if the Greens had stood constituency candidates everywhere. A lot of SNP voters would maybe be scared that the SNP wouldn’t do so well in the constituency, so would have voted SNP 1 and 2, for example.

@BarneyDellar @ScottishGreens I think that virtually all of the actual #SNP voters did vote #BothVotesSNP.

Mind you, only very detailed polling could test whether that hunch is true.

@BarneyDellar @ScottishGreens

Interesting side note on this question: the percentage difference between list and constituency votes, be party, was as follows:

SNP: 28.63%
Labour: 17.32%
#ReformUKLtd: 5.92%
#Tories: 0.007% <<<<< tribal or what?!?
#LibDems: 17.28%
#Green: -512.9%

I'd always had Labour down as the most tribal party in Scotland, but look at those Tories go!

#ScotPol
#Holyrood2026