Eniko Fox"AI is here to stay": never backed by any actual evidence
"AI is a bubble": backed by the actual economics playing out in the real world
j_bertolotti@eniko True, but I'd like to add: "AI existed before ChatGPT and will keep existing well after OpenAI is relegated to the history books."
Pete Alex Harris🦡🕸️🌲/∞🪐∫You can still make expert systems with Prolog, but nobody's going to give you $100B to do it.
@petealexharris And that is indeed part of the problem. Increasingly large and power-hungry deep neural networks have sucked all the oxygen from other forms of AI.
@eniko
@eniko
Neo Ehproque@j_bertolotti @petealexharris @eniko you should promise shareholders they won't have to pay humans anymore, that seems to motivate them for *some reason*
AndrocatBut the term "AI" was crafted as a bit of petty politicizing, and does not refer to a single technology, making it redundant.
That redundancy is why LLM reference was able to successfully usurp the term.
If we need to relinquish the term along with the bursting of the bubble, we will be no worse off for it.
Sjoerd Stendahl@eniko It **A**in't **I**nevitable. (not sure if the markdown gets rendered)
Last line from Luke Nickle's latest living rent-free in my mind: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_mzYS-ET8o
There will be some residue when this pops, I don't think the technique will disappear from the face of the earth. But the fact that it's still a fringe opinion to call the most obvious bubble in my lifetime for what it is, is just baffling to me.
F**k Your AI
@eniko
Expenditures: >650 bln per year
Revenue: <60 bln per year.
And that revenue includes the 10 bln that Microsoft hands to OpenAI and OpenAI hands back to Microsoft. As @pluralistic said, to call that an accounting trick is doing injustice to the noble accounting trick. This is just ordinary fraud.
This clearly can't go on forever. And as Stein's law has it, anything that can't go on forever eventually stops. The bubble will pop, and given the state of the stock-market it will be ugly.
drs1969 (David Smith) 🇬🇧@sstendahl @eniko @pluralistic According to Ed Zitron, it's 1 Trillion of investment next year. Or $125 for every living human on earth...
Bj�rn@sstendahl @eniko Thanks for making me aware of him. Instant-buy on bandcamp!
https://lukenickled.bandcamp.com/album/singing-in-the-woods-vol-i
https://lukenickled.bandcamp.com/album/singing-in-the-woods-vol-i
Singing in the Woods Vol. I, by Luke Nickle
17 track album
6@eniko @sstendahl it'll be just like NFT or "blockchain" or dotcom or so on, yeah
still a thing, but slinking in the background, not the main focus
still a thing, but slinking in the background, not the main focus
Oscar Civit Flores@eniko the logical conclusion of those two premises is: "bubbles are here to stay"
Cogito ergo mecagoendios@eniko "But I asked the AI to write a datepicker UI element in BigFramework with lots of special constraints such as leap years and it made in a week a junior's year of work"
And so could a well-trained monkey. Making yet another rewrite of something that has been rewritten and documented ad nauseam and calling libraries specially designed to make such a rewrite as automatic as stamping license plates is no proof of work ability.
Joel LuukkaThe inevitability message is designed to grab media space and silence any discussion about alternatives. They too are afraid the bubble is going to burst.
Nikkileah 🎮🚄🏳️⚧️🇬🇧@eniko but economics itself is a bullshit science...
Nadia/Надя/नाडिया/娜迪亚/ نادية@eniko Or perhaps was a bubble, if this is right about its popping:
I wonder if it'll be remembered alongside the South Sea Bubble and the Tulip Mania. Maybe the Mechanical Türk and ELIZA too. And potentially even Heaven's Gate or something on that order for the TESCREAL techbro lot.
The AI bubble won’t survive this question | Ed Zitron
🍁voilà-DCKIM🍁@eniko it's well to be described as a 'mad race to the plateau'.
Marty Fouts@eniko Actual evidence: CorridorKey. If you equate “AI” with the subset consisting of large language models, ignoring 60+years of computer science, then sure, there is a bubble and it’s going to pop because LLMs are an unethical environmental disaster of a dead end.
If you look at the entire 60+ years, though it becomes hard to imagine things like machine vision or go players or even green screen removal going away.
@MartyFouts when i say AI i mean the things that are labeled AI and not the things that are not labeled AI
Kaito@eniko @MartyFouts that's one way to put it 😁
@eniko So do I. Machine vision has been a branch of AI since the 60s. Deep Blue’s Chess program, AlphaGo, and CorridorKey are all examples of machine learning, a branch of AI since the 50s. All of these are labeled AI in the literature.
Whatever you label it, the research field isn’t going away, its researchers are going to continue to call it AI, and it will still produce good results like CorridorKey, long after the LLM bubble bursts.
Lord Caramac the Clueless, KSC@eniko The technology won't go away, but the bubble will burst, and most of the companies will go out of business. However, smaller open source models that anybody can download and install on any sufficiently powerful machine will remain. And for the smallest of those models, even a Raspberry Pi can be sufficient.
What will go away is the hype. The frenzy. The attempts to shoehorn AI into everything whether it makes sense or no.
What will go away is the hype. The frenzy. The attempts to shoehorn AI into everything whether it makes sense or no.
trenchworms@eniko "the cat is out of the bag" my guy. the cat is running an extortion racket. it is sitting on a leather couch filing its nails saying "gee, that's a nice bag youze got there, would be a damn shame if little old me was to jumps back in there" while you sob and shovel a billion dollars a day into its litter box.
@eniko "this ship has sailed' yes straight into fucking charybdis