We’ve gone from "this is too ghoulish to exist" in 2003 to "this is the new wisdom-of-crowds infrastructure" in 2026. And it's a symptom of how we, all of us, are coming apart.

Prediction markets are, I think, the clearest single sign that our civilisation has entered a late and decadent stage.

https://www.joanwestenberg.com/why-prediction-markets-are-a-sure-sign-that-our-civilisation-is-in-decay/

Why prediction markets are a sure sign that our civilisation is in decay

Prediction markets are the clearest single sign our civilisation has entered a late and decadent stage. The reason isn't that they're new or sinister. It's that the case for them is defensible, the technology works, the outputs are useful, but the long-term effect is corrosive anyway.

Westenberg.
@Daojoan did the Romans wager on which gladiator would survive or be killed?

@sumisu3 @Daojoan

I would need to consult my bricks from Edward Gibbon about it, but I wager that may have indeed been the case (pun intended).