The same OIS-CFTC gap that preceded the August 2024 crash is reopening. Speculators added 20,000 yen shorts in a single week — and Ueda's cautious speech just gave them permission to add more.
But Bessent has seen this pattern before. He used to profit from it. Now he's the one trying to prevent it.
The poacher became the gamekeeper. The BOJ meets in 14 days.
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The Poacher's Dilemma: Bessent, the BOJ and the Carry Trade Trap Before April 28
Scott Bessent made his fortune trading the kind of central bank dislocation now building ahead of the BOJ's April 28 meeting. Now he's the one trying to prevent it. The CFTC-OIS gap that preceded August 2024 is reopening — and Ueda's cautious speech just made it worse.