Jan Wildeboer 😷
Ah, there's the TACO. Two weeks. #WhereIsMySurprisedFace
So if I understand correctly (it's all still in flux): Two weeks cease fire between Iran and USA (unclear what Israel will do). Strait of Hormuz to be opened during these two weeks. Pakistan brokered the deal.
Israel's Netanyahu declares that his war against Lebanon is NOT part of the cease-fire. #WhereIsMySurprisedFace
Thus the TL;DR in my opinion: A cease-fire but the war is not really over, 21st of April is the new deadline #5, Pakistan has emerged as deal broker, the Strait of Hormuz is open, but under Iranian control, the flow of fossil fuel however will not simply recover as a lot of infrastructure in the region has been bombed and it will need months to be repaired, Iran's leadership stays in control, no regime change in sight and Israel continues to fight in Lebanon.
My expectations: This is enough for Trump to pull out of the region, declare some sort of win that only he and his regime believe in. He will leave the fallout to the rest of the world to deal with. The planned show of power has however completely failed. The US military could not prove its superiority. Ultimately Trump has caused more damage to the role of the US than anyone dares to admit right now.
IF (and that's a huge if) the democrats in the US get their act together, this will mean the midterms are lost for Trump and the republicans. Good spin doctors could turn this around, but Trump will never accept good spin doctors in his vicinity. Europe and NATO members made the right decision to stay out of all of this. Time for my first coffee. The world is a bit safer today but far from stability.
Ed@jwildeboer Lets also hope the Tr*mp touch will hurt Orban's chances.
grouchox@jwildeboer absolutely catastrophic. There will have to be a new world order after this.