RE: https://mas.to/@Aubreader/116330793703168577

This article is a must read.

An excerpt: “Why would anyone fund an Atmosphere project if #Bluesky, with $100 million in the bank, might ship a competing feature at any moment? Why would a founder bet their career on this ecosystem? The presentation didn't just hurt Graze. It made the entire ecosystem look unfundable.”

Why do I keep bringing up this topic?

Because #ATproto is often put in the same category as #ActivityPub (“open protocols yay”) but I strongly disagree with that stance

@_elena it's a mess that keeps growing, and we will be left to compost it, too much #techshit, and we all start to stink - why would anyone use the #openweb with that bad smell. The last time this happened was the #encryptionists with the #blockchain mess, there is a big overlap with #bluesky
@hamishcampbell I'm getting big EEE vibes from Bluesky - I hope my instinct is wrong

@_elena Sadly, it isn’t - and it’s painfully visible. @evan called this right from the start, and he was right on this.

This is #techshit, spreading a miasma over the #openweb. And when it inevitably fails, the rotting stink will linger, making it even harder for people to take the step they need to take.

@hamishcampbell @_elena

I see three outcomes for Bluesky:

1. They keep working on opening up the ATmosphere.
2. They try to claw back value from the developer ecosystem (FB and Twitter did this in early 2010s).
3. They run out of money and shut down.

Here, "they" means the current corporate entity or an acquirer. If there's another outcome I'm missing, lmk!

@evan @hamishcampbell @_elena

Actually think the most likely scenario is that they continue to operate at a loss and are funded by crypto VC interests, or outright billionaire oligarchs, with the purpose of coralling liberal voices and managing their reach through increasingly restrictive algorithmic manipulations.

-more-

@evan @hamishcampbell @_elena

The real benefit to the corporate and oligarchic owners is that the existence of Bluesky inhibits the growth of a truly open, defensible and powerful public social media.

Everyone who participates on that platform is effectively working against the interest of building a strong alternative to corporate domination of the public's access to information.

@mastodonmigration @hamishcampbell @_elena I won't argue with this. Having two incompatible stacks hurts the entire ecosystem. When developers and decisionmakers see that, it makes them want to sit back and wait to see what comes out on top.

I think our best mitigation for that right now is reassurance that investing time, energy and money into ActivityPub will not be a waste.

@evan @hamishcampbell @_elena

💯 Slow and steady wins the race. It is just frustrating that people are so easily distracted by bright shiny objects.