anlomedad

Interesting study!
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07147-z
An all-Chinese team at Kings College in London. ^^

Prose press release by the university: https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/climate-disruption-to-global-supply-chains-could-lead-to-25-trillion-net-losses-by-mid-century

Focusses on heatwaves and cascading effects on supply chains and distant societies across ‘144 regions’.

However, they use regions to calculate global averages for the impact on global GDP. ‘By 2060, total GDP losses will amount to 0.8% under 1.5 degrees of warming, 2.0% under 3 degrees of warming and 3.9% under 7 degrees of warming.’

-3.9% GDP due to heatwaves, at global warming of +7°C 😁

*****

But regions directly affected by heat (plus infrastructure damage from drought and heavy rain) are destabilised in the long term = production capacity is lost when – how many? – states there become ungovernable because people can no longer get to work/have lost their jobs and have to find food for their families.

Some regions are themselves directly more important for the complex supply chains of our tech-driven civilisation. Namely regions with a large workforce, such as Asian countries like China, Korea, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, etc., but also Brazil.
If the infrastructure and workforce there disappear, the other countries cannot compensate for this at all, because their populations are not large enough to manufacture the complex products without interruption.
Africa’s regions are of secondary importance.

-3.9% GDP at global +7°C😁
Interesting nonetheless. Perhaps one could use their breakdown of supply chain dependencies as a basis for a more realistic analysis.

Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk - Nature

A global high-resolution disaster footprint analytical model is developed to show substantial socioeconomic impacts from climatic change-driven heat stress through the global supply chain by 2060 due to direct and indirect effects on health and labour productivity.

Nature
Mar 28 at 10:15amWeb
Show threadanlomedad16h ago

2/
Suspicious because it sounds so much like Nordhaus: their outdoor focus on agriculture and mining.
These were also the only 2 sectors where Nordhaus saw harm to "the economy" from climate change.

Also Nordhaus-like suspicious: for them, heat stress only makes humans suffer.
No word of crop losses or loss of insect life due to heat stress.
Change in soil microbe composition and changed soil capillaries makes access to water ever more difficult for plants.

High temperature also drives drought via evaporation, so heat stress also causes drought-related damages in crops, soils, insects,
hinders electricity generation with water, nuclear and fossil fuels,
and disrupts water-dependent industry.

Heat stress and its drought-related stress cause built infrastructure to crumble, damages roads, rail tracks, and buildings.

All this has no impact on "the economy". Because economists don't know it, they still merely juggle with Nordhaus' DICE.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-07147-z

#climateEconomics #ClimateChange #Heatwave #heatstress #ExtremeWeather

Global supply chains amplify economic costs of future extreme heat risk - Nature

A global high-resolution disaster footprint analytical model is developed to show substantial socioeconomic impacts from climatic change-driven heat stress through the global supply chain by 2060 due to direct and indirect effects on health and labour productivity.

Nature