uncomfortably numb4h ago
Baldur Bjarnason

The US basically isn't enforcing a whole host of laws and regulations regarding finance (hasn't since the 2007 bubble, even less so these days) which means the current bubble probably has a bunch of fraud going on—sorry, "poor information environment" is, I think, the euphemism du jour

Since online advertising has basically been filled with I Can't Believe This Is Legal™ fraud-adjacent behaviour for years, I'm personally taking the numbers coming out of tech with a grain of salt

11:02amWeb
Show threadBaldur Bjarnason7h ago

The difference between the tech industry and, say, Enron is that the tech industry is a cluster of very large, deeply intertwined megacorporations. They're like the 2007 era banks in terms of their interconnectedness: big tech orbiting Nvidia and smaller startups orbiting the big tech planets.

You only need fraud to thrive in one corner of this system to create a cascading risk for them all.

Show threadCraig P7h ago
@baldur i think fraud has become the defining feature of this era, yeah.
Show threadarrbee6h ago
@baldur
One problem is that those megacorporations are mature, stable companies who should have a P/E ratio to match. As this would lower their share price they frantically adopt any new tech to convince the market they should have the ratio of a successful startup.
The alternative is lower value share options and having to pay real money instead of shares to buy out competitors - which they will do anything to avoid.
The actual profitability of a company is no longer important to its "value".
Show threadBob Thomson5h ago
@baldur @Zitron has lots on this, the fantasy numbers and how it differs from
Dot com, 2008 and Enron, and is, if anything worse.
Show threadPratik Patel4h ago
@baldur I'm pretty sure you're going to get "too big to fail" problems.
Show threadParttimesailor6h ago
@baldur maybe a few kg’s of salt…
Show threadSimon MacDonald5h ago
@baldur been bracing for the bubble pop since last year. I’m not an economist but it’s pretty obvious there is a ton of fraud going on right now. It’s funny to have conversations with people at my bank and draw comparisons to the dot-com and housing bubbles. They just look at me like I’m crazy. I might be too old or have too good of a memory.
Show threadMacCruiskeen5h ago
@macdonst @baldur One thing one has learned from remembering prior bubbles is that they have a lot of self-sustaining momentum. They'll run until even the fumes are exhausted, might be two or three years past the point of no return. But yeah, the only rational response is to try to insulate yourself as much as possible and hunker down.
Show threadmike8053h ago

@baldur "When the tide goes out you find out who was swimming naked." -- Warren Buffett

If AI is successful, nobody will ever be accountable for the fraud. If AI fails, there will be a regretful morning. With handcuffs.