"Trump’s sudden climb-down [from his threat to bomb Iranian power plants] was startling. Who could have seen this coming?

The answer is, the person or people who bought large quantities of stock market futures and sold large quantities of oil futures around 15 minutes before Trump’s announcement."

~ Paul Krugman

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/2

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/treason-in-the-futures-markets

"This 'sharp and isolated jump in volume' — which you can see for the oil futures market in the chart at the top of this post — was especially bizarre because there were no major news items — no major publicly available news items — to drive sudden big market transactions. The story would be baffling, except that there’s an obvious explanation:"

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/3

"Somebody close to Trump knew what he was about to do, and exploited that inside information to make huge, instant profits."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/4

"According to the Financial Times, traders placed about $580 million in oil futures bets roughly 15 minutes before a social media post by Donald Trump about Iran talks, which later caused oil prices to drop sharply."

~ Aaron Parnas

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/5

https://aaronparnas.substack.com/p/news-americans-furious-over-tsa-shutdown

"The five-day period in which Trump promised to hold off on this particular threat—the war itself continues—coincides with the days the stock market is open.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, which analyzes the stock market, the S&P 500 surged upward by 240 points. The price of Brent crude oil dropped to $96 a barrel."

~ Heather Cox Richardson

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/6

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/march-23-2026

"Then Iran denied Trump’s claims and said its leaders had had 'no direct or indirect contact' with Trump’s people. Iran’s foreign ministry suggested Trump was trying 'to reduce energy prices and to buy time for implementing his military plans.' It said that countries in the region had approached Iran to begin negotiations" (continued in /8)

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/7

(continued from /7)

"and that 'our response to all of them is clear: we are not the party that started this war, and all such requests should be directed to Washington.'

The S&P fell 120 points and the price of Brent crude rose to about $100 a barrel.

'What is happening here?' wrote Adam Kobeissi about the stock market in his newsletter."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/8

"The answer to which social media posters jumped was market manipulation. ...

Today, at the Palm Beach airport, a reporter asked Trump: 'If the war is ending, do you still need $200 billion?' Trump answered: 'We, ah, it’s always nice to have. It’s always nice to have. It’s a very inflamed world.”'

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/9

"The defining characteristic of the Trump administration is corruption. But Trump’s corruption reached new heights on Monday. Trump caused a $3 trillion swing in the capitalization of the US securities markets with a claim that the US had made" (continued in /11)

~ Robert B. Hubbell

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/10

https://roberthubbell.substack.com/p/trump-uses-war-as-a-tool-for-market

(continued from /10)

"'very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,' a claim that Iran categorically rejected 27 minutes later."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/11

"With Donald Trump in the White House, the markets have never been a stronger indication of which direction the wind is blowing across the top of the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office."

~ Lucian K. Truscott

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/12

https://luciantruscott.substack.com/p/who-gets-a-vote-about-how-this-war

"Several accounts on the online platform Polymarket laid bets on a US-Iran ceasefire over the weekend that appeared to show signs of insider knowledge, according to experts.

Eight accounts, all newly created around 21 March, bet a total of nearly $70,000 (£52,000) on there being a ceasefire."

~ Aisha Down

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/13

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/23/bets-us-iran-ceasefire-show-signs-of-insider-knowledge-say-experts-polymarket

"They stand to make nearly $820,000 if such a deal is reached before 31 March.

An account that made the same bet was created shortly before the US struck Iran on 28 February. It also placed a winning bet on those strikes, which raised similar questions around insider trading, and so far has bet on nothing else."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/14

"The new accounts all appear to have been created late last week, around the time when the US president, Donald Trump, appeared to first double down on war with Iran, then suggest in an after-markets Truth Social post that he was considering 'winding down' military operations."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/15

"Last month, as American forces gathered in the Middle East in obvious preparation for an attack on Iran, you could’ve made a small fortune gambling on when exactly the bombing would begin. ...

Their boosters [of online prediction markets] tell us, grandly, that the sum of all those bets gives us our best forecast of the future — even a workable approximation of the truth.

~ David Wallace-Wells

#Trump #Iran #war #PredictionMarkets #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/16

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/23/opinion/prediction-markets-gambling.html?unlocked_article_code=1.VlA.vlfN.dXBo0YSnmpOy&smid=url-share

"They also offer an unnerving implicit philosophy: that we should relate to the future not as citizens or moralists, problem solvers or advocates, but as gamblers, each of us surveying the horizon of possibility somewhat indifferent to human outcomes and looking instead for a betting edge."

#Trump #Iran #war #markets #StockMarket #PredictionMarkets #futures #oil #gas #InsiderTrading
/17

"In the space of 24 hours, Trump went from threatening to knock out Iran’s power plants to insisting that the U.S. was engaged in 'constructive' talks with Iran. He therefore put the 'destroy the power plants' on hold for 5 days. While Trump may have simply lied (as is his way) about talks to excuse delaying an ill-conceived major escalation, his latest announcement underscores just how frantic he is to get out of this debacle."

~ Jennifer Rubin

#Trump #Iran #war
/18

https://www.contrariannews.org/p/words-and-phrases-9dd

"However, Trump cannot simply 'leave' now that he is sick of the collapsing polls, public ridicule, rotten press coverage, absurdly high oil prices, aggrieved allies, and whiny MAGA isolationists."

#Trump #Iran #war
/19

"Since the outset of the Iran War on February 28, President Donald Trump has repeatedly insisted that things are going well. Within a few days, Trump began declaring that the war was 'won' and nearly over. ...

Despite Trump’s claims, the war in Iran is not going well. ...In sum, the U.S. military is mired in a deadly conflict with no clear objectives or exit strategy."

~ Judd Legum and Rebecca Crosby

#Trump #Iran #war
/20

https://popular.info/p/the-unraveling-of-the-war-in-iran

"On Monday morning, with markets poised to plummet on the prospect of an indefinite and economically damaging war, Trump made a surprise announcement. The United States and Iran had a diplomatic breakthrough and, as a result, were poised to end the war. Trump said the strikes on Iranian power plants would be postponed for five days."

#Trump #Iran #war
/21

"The fact that, at this point, Iran is contesting the existence of negotiations raises significant doubt that the United States and Iran have reached a comprehensive agreement that could end the war."

#Trump #Iran #war
/22