Dave Rahardja

#Iran’s successful hit on a Qatari natural gas facility looks to me like brilliant strategy.

#Qatar supplies 30% of the world’s helium. The gas is used for everything from inflating party balloons, to running MRI machines, to manufacturing silicon wafers. That last use case is why I think this is an especially astute move. Without Qatar’s helium, chip manufacturing would have to slow down massively; without chips, there would be no GPUs; and without GPUs, the AI industry cannot continue its bubblesome growth.

I read that helium is extremely difficult to stockpile, so it must be constantly shipped in liquid form in massive refrigerated containers (some of which are stuck behind the Hormuz strait blockade). So at any point, it appears that the world has about 4–6 weeks of helium supply. By destroying Qatar’s natural gas plant, Iran has effectively started a countdown timer on the world economy.

Masterful gambit.

https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/iran-war-halts-qatar-helium-output-threatening-global-131278124

Iran war halts Qatar helium output, threatening global tech supply chains

The Iran war is tightening global tech supply chains by cutting off helium from Qatar, a key source of the gas used in advanced industries like chipmaking

ABC News
Mar 23 at 6:15pmWeb
Show threadDave Rahardja1d ago

Iran is quite literally manipulating the world’s economy in this war by commandeering a strategic part of its supply chain. Gasoline is already expensive and in short supply. In a few weeks, everything from fertilizer to silicon chip manufacturing must ramp down. Then, food prices will rise everywhere due to fertilizer and transportation costs. And they’re making it clear that the US and Israel are to blame.

They are so good at this game.

And can we talk about how good their drones and missiles seem to be? There is plenty of footage floating around now that show these craft evading the Iron Dome interceptors. I wonder if both the US and Israel were surprised by just how sophisticated Iran’s (cheap) missiles are and how many of them have penetrated the (expensive) defense systems.

#iran #iranWar

Show threadChris Pitts1d ago

@drahardja “the AI industry cannot continue its bubblesome growth”

So there are upsides then? 😁

Show threadDave Rahardja1d ago
@thirstybear Yes!
Show threadDan Sugalski1d ago
@drahardja I keep seeing reports of Iran hitting facilities that are going to take months to years to repair. When this stupidity finally ebbs we're going to feel the effects for a long time. I suspect the short term pain the gulf states are feeling will be nothing compared to the long term hit they take as the inexorable pivot away from fossil fuels happens but the transition will be messy and really suck for ages.
Show threadDave Rahardja1d ago
@wordshaper The irony is that I think Iran is holding back. They are deploying their attacks in measured amounts to exact the highest bargaining leverage. I suspect there will be more damage in the days to come.
Show threadDan Sugalski1d ago
@drahardja Oh, I am 100% sure they're holding back. Given the relative closeness of all the facilities and (lack of) hardness... they could blow up basically every facility on the Saudi side of the gulf in a couple of days. Oil and gas facilities are notoriously prone to explode in ginormous fireballs if even a small part of them goes bang, and Iran has a *lot* of drone-bang on hand.
Show threadDave Rahardja1d ago

@wordshaper The next strategic targets I hear people talking about are desalination plants. Most of the Arabian gulf nations live on desalinated water. By taking out only a few plants, Iran can force a migration of millions of people from cities as their drinking water gets cut off.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/23/iran-threat-to-destroy-water-facilities-gulf

Why Iran’s threat to destroy water facilities could spell disaster for Gulf countries

Desalination infrastructure is crucial in arid region with very little rainfall and few rivers or lakes

The Guardian
Show threadDan Sugalski1d ago
@drahardja I could absolutely see the desalination plants getting hit, though I suspect that'll be reserved until it's time to escalate. Blowing up water plants is more of an attack against the citizenry, where the oil terminals are just economic. That will get them blowback in a way that just hitting the money won't and it'll be harder to come back from that.