Mastodawn

Prof. Sam Lawler 2d ago

I presented at the local planetary journal club this morning about the 3 articles I co-authored for The Conversation in the past weeks about the effects that one million satellites would have on the night sky, the atmosphere, and the orbital environment (spoiler alert: all very very bad)

https://theconversation.com/a-new-space-race-could-turn-our-atmosphere-into-a-crematorium-for-satellites-276366

https://theconversation.com/too-many-satellites-earths-orbit-is-on-track-for-a-catastrophe-but-we-can-stop-it-275430

And one on light pollution that I thought would get published today but might not be out until after the weekend.

A new space race could turn our atmosphere into a ‘crematorium for satellites’

Planned ‘megaconstellations’ of satellites could cause unforeseen harm to the ozone layer and climate systems. Global regulation is needed before it’s too late.

The Conversation

Prof. Sam Lawler 3h ago

The third article in this (horrible) series of articles I've co-authored is now out. https://theconversation.com/a-million-new-spacex-satellites-will-destroy-the-night-sky-for-everyone-on-earth-277938

A million satellites of the size required for "AI data centers" would mean that everyone in the world would have more visible satellites than stars for most of the night and most of the year.

But don't worry, we'll be in Kessler Syndrome WAY before we get to a million satellites!

A million new SpaceX satellites will destroy the night sky — for everyone on Earth

If SpaceX launches one million new satellites, it will increase atmospheric pollution and risk of falling debris. And we will see more satellites than stars.

The Conversation

Prof. Sam Lawler 3h ago

RE: https://mastodon.social/@sundogplanets/116152057176915428

I've got a thread here where I more carefully explain the prediction plot, and post a bunch of sky predictions for many latitudes around the world, just to make the point of how incredibly stupid the idea of a million satellites is.

McRocker 🇨🇦🍁2h ago

Prof. Sam Lawler

Oh and fun fact, 2 people have sent me this terrifyingly stupid graphic from SpaceX this morning, showing that we actually significantly *underestimated* the reflecting area of these absolutely fucking enormous satellites they're planning. This is so stupid.

@sundogplanets logistical question: is there a starship now that doesn't reliably fall apart?

Dr. Eric J. Fielding, PhD 2h ago

@hllizi @sundogplanets The figure shows Starship V3 that has not yet been tested, so we don’t know if it will blow up or not. They plan to launch it next month

Martin Schröder 🇺🇳2h ago

@EricFielding
And Musk talks about an even bigger v4. Which will ofc work. 🤷‍♂️
@hllizi @sundogplanets

Michael Busch 1h ago

@EricFielding @hllizi @sundogplanets

The figure also imagines magically launching 5,000 Starships per year from a launch pad that keeps having to be rebuilt.

This scam keeps getting more absurd.

Wasn't there something about a need to increase planetary albedo? Is this a help with that?

Ray McCarthy 2h ago

@sundogplanets
But do the Optimus robots work?
Will they ever work because they rely only on vision and not 100s of touch sensors and distance measurement sensors?

It all seems like fantasy.

Benjamin Knispel 2h ago

@sundogplanets OMFSM, this is stupid on so many levels? How many Optimus robots to do the work? m(

Edit: typo

Prof. Sam Lawler 2h ago

@benknispel I know I feel gross sharing it. But it's literally the only information they've given publicly about the size of these satellites. Ugh.

GadgetGav 2h ago

@sundogplanets At least can take comfort in the fact like, like most of Elon’s promises, it’ll never happen. 1 billion Optimus robots?🤣

@gadgetgav @sundogplanets

Perhaps they filed for permission for 1 million satellites, more so that they would not need to ask for permission again for a long time (no matter the purpose of the satellite), than to actually launch 1 million satellites in the near-to-mid-term.

No matter the goals of the administration, they would be stupid to give that away.

@gadgetgav @sundogplanets

"Data center" satellite. Any satellite with a computer in it.

Rob Pumphrey 2h ago

@sundogplanets
Fingers crossed this goes as far as the Hyperloop

Jack William Bell 2h ago

Plus they are hugely vulnerable to any number of disruptions, including to anyone with a launcher and a bucket of ball bearings.

Anyone who thinks these won't be a target in future wars isn't paying attention to the way infrastructure is destroyed in modern asymmetric warfare – despite the fact we have an object lesson going right now. And the number of small nations with a big enough launcher increases every year.

James Helferty 2h ago

@jackwilliambell @sundogplanets I am frankly surprised Iran hasn't done this yet.

Jack William Bell 2h ago

@sirspate @sundogplanets

Yeah. One good Starlink hit could trigger a whole Kessler Syndrome cascade.

And I really doubt Musk has them insured for 'acts of war'. (If he has them insured at all.)

I'm also surprised North Korea hasn't threatened to do something like this.

Wulfy—Speaker to the machines 2h ago

STOP AI DATACENTRES USING COMMUNITY POWER AND WATER!!!

Ok

NOT LIKE THAT!!!!!

Time to admit if you're opposed to orbital #Ai your opposition to Ai wasn't about environmental damage.