Amateur analysis of SA election. A big Labor win is a foregone conclusion, so main question is Libs vs One Nation. Given far-right control of SA Libs by Antic’s MAGA faction, not much to choose between them. #auspol#sapol
Final three most places. will be Libs, ON and Labor, with Labor first or second nearly everywhere. Leakage of ON and Lib prefs means Labor will mostly win if first. If Labor second, whichever right party comes first will win. Looks as if this will mostly be ON #auspol#sapol
So, my guess is that ON will be the official opposition, but with only a handful of seats. On past experience, they will make an awful hash of it, even worse than Libs. #auspol#sapol
@johnquiggin It sucks for all of us that they get that next step of legitimacy, but feel kinda sad for the people who live there knowing that governments are better with strong opposition, and that's going to be - well, 'an awful hash of it'
John Quiggin
lachlan slowly taming rust