KimMar 18

I've been looking at a 2025 US Army unclas intelligence assesment (as you do) on how Iran would defend itself if attacked.

Not sure if the US Administration bothered to read this first but apparently they have barely reached the halfway point of defeat. They're only in the 'Crisis' phase using long range missiles, its not even a real 'Conflict' yet. #Iran https://g2webcontent.z2.web.core.usgovcloudapi.net/OEE/Iran%20LZ/2025JUN17_TiP_Defense_Warfare_Taber_anonymous.pdf

Show threadColinMar 18
@Ex_spurt Large empires getting sulky that people don't fight in ways that play to the empire's strengths is weird.
Show threadKimMar 18
@abstractcode its even funnier* that they knew this was going to happen
Show threadMH SustainabilityMar 18

@Ex_spurt @abstractcode

Odd that they don't mention mobile artillery which would always be a factor in creating a checkpoint to control the Strait of Hormuz for either side.

Show threadKim

@MathewHounsell their mobile tube artillery supports their conventional forces and falls into the defence-in-depth phase.

I would say that despite Trump's promise that he would "bomb the hell out of the beaches", the strikes on shipping in the straight would come from longer range assets. If you have a big, slow, easily seen target that can't manoeuvre you don't need to risk a weapon sytem by shooting it from close in.

Mar 18 at 3:38amWeb