Reed MidekeNYT live coverage of one man's ongoing quest for the Nobel Peace Prize
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/02/28/world/iran-strikes-trump?unlocked_article_code=1.PlA.GxET.WCyiQFiRZLKK&smid=url-share
There's comments going around about how Trump started the war to boost GOP chances in the midterms (and indeed, he himself has a long record of accusing others* of that kind if thing) but one problem with that theory is that it's really not popular. Of course, that could change if it turns out to be wildly successful, but at the moment there's little reason to think he's gonna git a big rally around the flag
Even among people who are in principle on board with the idea of regime change in Iran, this is pretty obviously a war of choice with no clear end game. As FT puts it "The US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq in 2001 and 2003 underlined the dangers of “regime change” wars. But those operations look meticulously planned, compared to the current US and Israeli assault on Iran"
https://www.ft.com/content/437130e7-ed4e-4919-8bf3-ac38c2eed6af
Trump has suggested an outcome like Venezuela, but it's hard to see getting there, and not clear whether the public would view that as much of a success. Any, welcome to the 4-5 week SMO, America!
For those skeptical of US friendly fire losses https://www.twz.com/air/tragic-friendly-fire-incidents-are-nothing-new-in-modern-air-warfare
Friendly-Fire Incidents Are Nothing New In Modern Air Warfare
The loss of three F-15Es to friendly fire today is far from the first time similar combat accidents have happened in the post Cold War era. The loss of three F-15Es to friendly fire today is far from the first time similar combat accidents have happened in the post Cold War era.
Now reported that one Kuwaiti F-18 downed those US F-15s. AAM rather than Patriot would explain the high survival rate of the crews
So apparently the CIA is plotting a Kurdish uprising in western Iran. Which to be fair, is 1000% more coherent than anything the rest of the administration has suggested. A self-governing Kurdish enclave could be a fairly good outcome for them, and has relatively successful precedent in Iraq and Syria. But…
https://www.itv.com/news/2026-03-03/united-states-seeking-an-armed-uprising-inside-iran
1) It doesn't obviously support an end game for the war as a whole, aside from the suggestion it could provide a diversion to support a broader uprising
2) Turkey and the Iraqi central government are unlikely to be on board, and Turkey in particular has a history of intervening militarily
3) The US, and Trump in particular have a rather long history of throwing Kurds under the bus when priorities change
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-iran
CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say
The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran and the Trump administration has been in active discussions with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq about providing them with military support, multiple people familiar with the talks told CNN.
NYT catalogues Iranian hits on US communication infrastructure. Unlikely to change the big picture, but they're not just lobbing Shaheds at luxury hotels
Arash Azizi on the Kurdish insurgency plan, the groups involved (notably heavy on nominally left-wing factions), and highlighting the extremely obvious risk of things descending into sectarian civil war. Good thing that has never been a problem in the middle east before!
Also notes Iran is already carrying out preemptive strikes in Iraqi Kurdish territory
As this AP story points out, there is also substantial risk of spillover into Iraq, given the large presence of Iran-friendly groups there
https://apnews.com/article/kurdish-dissident-groups-iran-war-iraq-f76efe372becb7d80d3ed026791e67ba
Kurdish dissident groups say they are on standby to join fight against Iran
Kurdish Iranian dissident groups based in northern Iraq are preparing for a potential cross-border military operation in Iran, and the U.S. has asked Iraqi Kurds to support them, Kurdish officials have told The Associated Press. Kurdish party leaders have also discussed the Iran crisis with President Donald Trump, according to Iraqi Kurdish officials. One official says Trump has asked them to open the border and back the groups militarily. Iraqi Kurdish leaders fear Iranian retaliation. Recent drone and missile strikes have already hit the region, damaging homes, and disrupting electricity. Iraq also reinforces the border and the Iraqi government has vowed to stop infiltrations.
Israel's take on the end game: "If we can have a coup, great. If we can have people on the streets, great. If we can have a civil war, great. Israel couldn’t care less about the future . . . [or] the stability of Iran" - Which even leaving aside disregard for millions of human lives seems short sighted. The impacts of Iran becoming a failed state would extend far beyond its borders, likely for decades
https://www.ft.com/content/dd070ee7-7021-4f90-86ec-690fe6aa34e6
The Trump admin has also at times expressed the "we'll smash up their weapons and don't care what happens next" theory which really seems like a hell of take coming on the heals of 9/11 and the 20+ years to GWOT that was so deeply connected with things festering in failed states
OK, they're not exactly friends, but you'd think Iran would have higher priority targets than Azerbaijan these days.
I'd say someone got their coordinates mixed up, but hitting a major airport by chance would be incredibly bad luck 🤔
I Can't Believe It's Not Regime Change™
"I’m not going through this to end up with another Khamenei. I want to be involved in the selection. They can select, but we have to make sure it’s somebody that’s reasonable to the United States"
The most unpopular US war in the Middle East (so far)
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/polls-us-iran-attack-2026-03-06
Who could have predicted that an all-out war in the Persian Gulf would affect gasoline prices?!
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/05/iran-energy-prices-trump-wiles-00813710
Sean Parnell wants you to know that on the 6th day of America's SMO in Iran, everything is going according to plan
https://xcancel.com/SeanParnellASW/status/2030067692477239807
Totally unsurprising Russia is supplying Iran with intel (would be surprising if they weren't!) and geopolitically symmetrical with the west in Ukraine (though likely less effective in practice), so I wouldn't really expect a big reaction from Washington, but… can you imagine the shitstorm if the Obama or Biden admin had said "it does not really matter?"
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-reportedly-provides-iran-intelligence/
On the less effective part: Ukraine has had very good missile warnings from the first moments of the war, presumably in a large part thanks to Western assets, whereas in Iran, the initial strikes appear to have been a total surprise. Allies have also almost continuously flown ISR assets near Ukrainian airspace, which Russia has far less capability to do for Iran
Russia could cover quite a bit including a lot of area around Tehran flying in international airspace over the Caspian sea, similar to the British Rivet Joint and US drone flights near Crimea, but I haven't seen any reports that they are
Cycling through the various purported goals, we've reached "There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!"
"In conversations with their US counterparts, Arab and European officials say they haven’t detected what exactly Trump’s endgame looks like, or if it exists at all"
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/07/politics/donald-trump-iran-war-endgame-demands
Backing up much earlier reporting* Belingcat finds additional evidence the Minab girls schools strike was US
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2026/03/08/video-shows-us-tomahawk-missile-strike-next-to-girls-school-in-iran/
* NYT https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/world/middleeast/iran-school-us-strikes-naval-base.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Q1A.iDYk.Q91DlPE9JfKc&smid=url-share (email-walled #GiftLink)
NPR https://www.npr.org/2026/03/04/nx-s1-5735801/satellite-imagery-shows-strike-that-destroyed-iranian-school-was-more-extensive-than-first-reported
Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-investigation-points-likely-us-responsibility-iran-school-strike-sources-say-2026-03-06/
BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yqqyly9n0o
Video Shows US Tomahawk Missile Strike Next to Girls’ School in Iran - bellingcat
New video footage shows a US Tomahawk missile hitting an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility in Minab, Iran, on Feb 28, showing for the first time that the US struck the area. The footage, released by Mehr News and geolocated by Bellingcat, also shows smoke already rising from the vicinity of the girls’ school […]
Trump 'then said that Iran “also has some Tomahawks” and he didn’t rule out that they struck the school'
Well that would certainly be big if true! I suppose we are overdue for an Iran / Contra reboot
It also seems kinda absurd the US officials leaking on background are sticking to the "likely" line. While the investigation into the details may be ongoing, one would expect all the targets for pre-programmed munitions like Tomahawk to recorded and (absent a deliberate coverup involving a bunch of people) relatively easy to retrieve
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-iran-war-bombing-girls-school-assessment/
United States was "likely" responsible for bombing of girls' school in Iran, per early U.S. assessment
The preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment suggests that the U.S. is "likely" responsible for the bombing of the girls' school in Iran on Feb. 28.
While Trump continues to throw shit at the wall* trying to calm markets, Iran seems to have a coherent theory of victory: Hang on and drive up the economic cost until Trump gives up
Not that it will necessarily succeed, but using air power alone to stop them from hitting oil infrastructure and ships in the Straits of Hormuz seems like a pretty tall order
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/09/middleeast/iran-long-war-kamal-kharazi-interview-intl
Exclusive: Iran is ready for a long war with the US and only economic pain will end it, senior official tells CNN
A top Iranian official has warned that the government is prepared for a long war with the US and signaled that it is willing to continue attacking Gulf countries in an effort to persuade them to convince President Donald Trump to step back from the conflict.
Ignatius reports some senior Israeli officials (not Bibi) are getting twitchy about the lack of clear exit strategy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/03/09/israel-us-iran-war-trump-netanyahu-endgame/
Ben Brockert@reedmideke Iraqi Kurdistan sounds like one of the successes of the region, from what I've heard. It's calm enough to be popular for tourism, though probably not as much right now.