With 16 games remaining in their regular season, the #CBJ sit one point out of WC2 (with 1 game in hand) and 2 points out of 3rd in the Metro (also with 1 game in hand).
Instead of looking at magic numbers today, I looked at what the results would be if each team continued to:
1) win at the same rate they had all season
2) win at the same rate they had in their last 10
3) win at the average of the rate all season and the rate in their last 10
If each team continues to win at the same rate they have all season, there isn’t any movement in the standings, which I expected this far into the season.
The sample size is so big and there simply are not enough difference in number of games remaining. It would put both Detroit and the #CBJ in a points tie at 88 for the WC2 (with the Jackets losing the tie breaker).
If each team continues to win at the same rate they have in the last 10, there would be some movement:
BUF - 115
MON - 101
TBL - 94
CAR - 112
NYI - 102
#CBJ - 101
PIT - 99
BOS - 99
OTT - 98
A pretty nice outcome from a small sample size.
So, what happens if each team gains points somewhere between what they have been all season and what they have been in the last 10? If you look at the average of the points each team is gaining between those two, we get:
BUF - 106
MON - 96
TBL - 94
CAR - 106
NYI - 96
#CBJ - 95
BOS - 94
PIT - 94
OTT - 91
So, the #CBJ are right in there.
One of the teams projected in that 94 - 96 range will go on a 3-game losing streak that will most likely sink their season.
If you are the CBJ and can avoid that, those 4 OTL points in the last 10 games are likely to have been the difference between making the playoffs and not.
Brock Rogers