Mastodawn

When trying to explain Trump's decisions, always start with "how does Putin benefit." As I predicted on Monday, this week #oil price reversed a year-long declining trend and started going back up.

While we keep hearing how Trump seized a Russia-flagged tanker, oil price delta this week alone is worth more than that to Putler.

And while protests in Iran are contributing, #Venezuela war remains a major factor, and one that is entirely a consequence of Trump's decisions.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-rises-3-this-week-and-not-just-because-of-venezuela-3e2e63df

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Dmitry Borodaenko Jan 18

A week later, oil price is up almost 5% month over month, which coincidentally keeps it in the range Russia's 2026 budget is planned for.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/12/19/russian-oil-prices-sink-below-35-per-barrel-a91496

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Dmitry Borodaenko

And once again, the world is struggling to explain Trump's #EpsteinFury #ThirdGulfWar, when the reason can be plainly observed in every gas station in the world: oil crossing $90 per barrel is hard to ignore.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-oligarchical-corridor

"The war serves Israeli, Saudi, and (with qualifications) Russian interests; the war has led the White House to share Israeli, Saudi, and Russian messaging."

What qualifications? Russia has the most to gain from this war, more even than Israel.

The Oligarchical Corridor

A Source of War

Thinking about...

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Dmitry Borodaenko Mar 17

I'm beginning to get annoyed with serious journalists (even @juddlegum in https://popular.info/p/planning-to-fail) describing the #EpsteinFury #Iran #war in terms of lack of preparation and lack of purpose. #AgentKrasnov had an overarching goal for this war and he achieved it: drive up #oil prices and lift #sanctions on #Russia.

This is it. Everything else is fluff.

Decommissioning mine countermeasure ships stationed in #Bahrain was not incompetence. Getting the Strait of #Hormuz blocked was always the plan.

Planning to fail

Shortly after the start of the war in Iran on February 28, Iran declared that the Strait of Hormuz — which is used to transport about 20% of the world’s oil — was closed.

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