NonilexMar 7

And yet…

#Intelligence report warns large-scale #war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime

A classified report by the #NIC found that even a large-scale assault on #Iran launched by the #US would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic’s entrenched military & clerical establishment, a sobering assessment as the #Trump admin raises the specter of an extended #military campaign that officials say has “only just begun.”

#RegimeChange #law #Congress #WarPowers #geopolitics
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/07/iran-intelligence-report-unlikely-oust-regime/

Intel report warns large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime

A classified U.S. report doubts that Iran’s opposition would take power following either a short or extended U.S. military campaign.

The Washington Post
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The findings, confirmed to WaPo by 3 people familiar with the report’s contents, raise doubts about #Trump’s declared plan to “clean out” #Iran’s leadership structure & install a ruler of his choosing.

The report, completed ~1 week before the #US & #Israel initiated the #war on Feb 28, outlined succession scenarios stemming from either a narrowly tailored campaign against Iran’s leaders or a broader assault against its leadership & govt institutions, the people familiar with its findings said.
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In both cases, the #intelligence concluded that Iran’s clerical & military establishment would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali #Khamenei by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power, these people said.

The prospect of Iran’s fragmented opposition taking control of the country was described as “unlikely,” said the people….

#ForeverWars #US #Iran #war #Trump #warmonger #RegimeChange #RulesOfWar #law #Congress #WarPowers #geopolitics #MiddleEast

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The #NIC is composed of veteran analysts who produce classified assessments meant to represent the collective wisdom of Washington’s 18 #intelligence agencies.
The #CIA referred questions to the #ODNI [#TulsiGabbard], which declined to comment. The White House did not say if #Trump was briefed on this assessment before approving the #military operation, which has quickly expanded east to include submarine warfare in the #IndianOcean & west to counter-missile showdowns near #NATO member #Turkey.​
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…#US spy agencies’ doubts about Iran’s opposition seizing power have been referenced in the NYT & the WSJ. The #NIC’s involvement, & its analyses of the potential outcomes of small- & large-scale offensives, have not been previously reported.

Suzanne Maloney, an #Iran scholar & vp at the Brookings Institution, said the NIC’s prediction that Iran’s institutions will endure stems from its rigorous knowledge of the Islamic republic.

#war #Trump #RegimeChange #law #Congress #WarPowers #geopolitics

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“It sounds like a deeply informed assessment of the Iranian system & the institutions & processes that have been established for many years,” she said.

…The Iranian succession process that the report anticipated is now playing out but under duress from the extensive #US - #Israel bombing campaign from the air & sea.

#ForeverWars #Iran #war #Trump #warmonger #RegimeChange #RulesOfWar #law #Congress #WarPowers #geopolitics #MiddleEast

Show threadNonilexMar 7

The replacement of the supreme leader rests with Iran’s powerful clerical body, the Assembly of Experts. But members of the #IRGC & others within the country’s security establishment also play an influential role.

There has been intense speculation that the assembly will anoint the late supreme leader’s son, Mojtaba #Khamenei, but no official announcement has been made.

#ForeverWars #US #Iran #war #Trump #warmonger #RegimeChange #RulesOfWar #law #Congress #WarPowers #geopolitics #MiddleEast

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The #IRGC has been pushing #Khamenei’s candidacy but has encountered resistance from other power brokers, including Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of #Iran, a Western security official said.

As the war enters its second week, #Trump continues to demand Iran’s “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,” as he put it in a Truth Social post, & has suggested he should have a role in picking the country’s next leader.

#US #war #Trump #warmonger #RegimeChange #law #WarPowers

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#Trump told journalists that the younger #Khamenei is “incompetent” & a “lightweight,” & that he doesn’t want Iranian leaders who will simply “rebuild” the country’s nuclear & ballistic missile infrastructure.

“We want them to have a good leader. We have some people who I think would do a good job,” he told NBC News.

#ForeverWars #US #Iran #war #warmonger #RegimeChange #RulesOfWar #law #Congress #WarPowers #geopolitics #MiddleEast

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Iran’s Parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, rejected the notion that #Trump will play any role in appointing Iran’s next leader.

“The fate of dear #Iran, which is more precious than life, will be determined solely by the proud Iranian nation, not by [Jeffrey] #Epstein’s gang,” Ghalibaf said on X, referring to the late #SexOffender who was close friends with Trump for several years….

#ForeverWars #US #war #RegimeChange #RulesOfWar #law #Congress #WarPowers #geopolitics #MiddleEast

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Current & fmr #US officials say they see little sign, at least so far, of a mass popular uprising in #Iran or of significant fissures within the government or security forces that will result in a new regime. Iran’s security forces killed thousands of protesters during demonstrations in January fueled by the country’s poor #economy. The “guidance” from #Trump to the Iranian people has been to shelter in place until the US - #Israel bombing campaign concludes.

#war #RegimeChange #law #WarPowers

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With #Iran’s clerical & military establishment still in control, experts say Trump’s ability to dictate political outcomes is limited.
“Bending the knee to #Trump would go against everything they stand for,” said Holly Dagres, a snr fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The upper echelons of the clerical establishment are ideological, & so their modus operandi is to resist American #imperialism.”

#US #Iran #war #RegimeChange #law #Congress #WarPowers #geopolitics #MiddleEast

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#Trump could [try to] play kingmaker if the regime were to crumble, but the #NIC report does not view the establishment’s hold on power as brittle.

“There’s no other force within #Iran that can confront the remaining power that the regime has,” said Maloney. “Even if they’re not able to project that power very effectively against their neighbors, they can certainly dominate inside the country.”

#ForeverWars #US #war #RegimeChange #RulesOfWar #law #Congress #WarPowers #geopolitics #MiddleEast

Mar 7 at 2:33pmWeb