Good morning. 💮💮💮

23 June 2026

I was hoping to get this written before I head out this morning. There’s a lot going on — we’re getting ready to head to the airport because our granddaughter is flying in from Georgia and will be staying with us for the summer.

I’ve said this before, but it’s worth repeating: “We’re not all issued the same tool kit.” Physiologically, we’re all different. Some people are more capable in certain ways than others — that’s just the way it is, and it isn’t good or bad. The same goes for mental capacity. If you use yourself as the mean, and you’re honest about it, you’ll notice that some people are naturally more capable than you are.

There are a lot of facets to this. Education is theoretically available to everyone, but the ability to recall information quickly and accurately is an advantage all its own. Good recall makes learning easier, and learning makes everything easier.

And if you’re honest — again using yourself as the mean — you’ll also notice people who just can’t quite grasp concepts that seem obvious to you, like understanding why 2 + 2 = 4. Their strengths simply lie elsewhere.

I’ve heard people complain that “education doesn’t make people smart.” In one sense, sure — there are different kinds of intelligence. But the people who say that are usually the ones with less education. There’s a reason for that. It’s often the Dunning–Kruger effect at work: the well‑documented cognitive bias where people with low skill or knowledge in a domain overestimate their ability because they lack the very skills needed to recognize their own mistakes.

In other words, sometimes the loudest critics of education are the ones least equipped to understand what they’re missing.

“Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing it is stupid.” - Albert Einstein

#photo #photography #photographer #nature #flowers #abstract #intelligence

IC Brief Morning — 2026-06-23

ODNI's workforce reductions concentrated at NCTC and NCSC are unlikely to face judicial constraint before September 30. Moderate confidence reflects the absence of a filed legal challenge and the narrow history of courts blocking executive IC personnel actions. The reductions began the same day two quantum executive orders imposed 30-day PQC lead designation and 2030 migration compliance deadlines on surviving coordination staff. Whether agencies designate PQC leads by late July is the first observable compliance test for an IC coordination layer now losing personnel.

France's DGSI dismantlement of nine clandestine Chinese police stations establishes a replicable enforcement template for allied services. At least one additional EU member state will likely announce a formal investigation into Chinese police infrastructure within 90 days. Moderate confidence rests on the 2022 Safeguard Defenders cascade precedent and several states retaining active investigative files from that cycle. The MSS published a defense researcher leniency case on June 22, deploying a behavioral incentive as the new quantum executive order expands FBI counterintelligence coverage of the same academic recruitment vector.

https://icbrief.org/icbrief/

#Intelligence #OSINT #NationalSecurity

IC Brief Evening — 2026-06-22

Bill Pulte will likely serve as acting DNI through year-end 2026. High confidence rests on two observable blocking conditions: Trump has conditioned Clayton's confirmation on unrelated legislation that lacks the votes to advance, and no alternative path has opened. The vacancy compounds ODNI's structural degradation: three coordination centers and the NIC's senior analytic leadership have been eliminated, removing capacity acting leadership cannot restore.

ODNI will very likely not produce a coordinated assessment on AI-enabled cyber threats by year-end despite the Five Eyes warning this week that frontier hacking tools will reach broad availability within months. Moderate confidence reflects the loss of the Cyber Threat Intelligence Integration Center. Allied services are building autonomous capability in parallel: Germany's BND reform is likely to enter formal coordination by year-end, and Canada's CSIS has established the first judicial model for domestic active cyber remediation.

Russian intelligence services are likely to execute at least one sabotage attack against Ukrainian infrastructure by September 30, with Telegram-based recruitment and structured espionage networks sustaining operations despite SSU interdictions. The CIA-GUR intelligence channel will likely remain operational through year-end as the primary US-Ukraine strategic mechanism, though its persistence depends on CIA Director Ratcliffe's continued personal intervention with Trump. Moderate confidence on both assessments reflects observable operational patterns.

https://icbrief.org/icbrief/

#Intelligence #OSINT #NationalSecurity

The Warrior-Witches of #Ukraine’s Resistance

An underground #intelligence network uses subterfuge and honey traps to direct #drone strikes deep inside #russian-occupied territory.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/06/underground-intelligence-network-russia-ukraine/687578/

Former CIA operations officer Ed Bogan: “Ukrainians approached the challenge with the same sense of determination many Americans felt after 9/11 … There was an understanding that the stakes were existential and the only option was to keep moving forward."

#Ukraine #CIA #intelligence

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidkirichenko/2026/06/22/how-the-cia-helped-build-ukraines-intelligence-advantage/

IC Brief Morning — 2026-06-22

IC counterterrorism capacity will likely contract over the next six months. Pulte's 300-candidate NCTC dismissal list compounds Section 702's lapse, which Congress cannot resolve while the DNI impasse persists. Moderate confidence in the personnel reductions reflects Pulte's pre-start firing assessments. Reauthorization before September is unlikely: the SAVE America Act precondition has failed twice, and Cotton's attempt to advance Clayton's hearing was vetoed when Trump directed his nominee not to testify. High confidence rests on two blocking conditions that Cotton's failed hearing attempt confirmed.

The Dialog data exposure has placed NATO SACEUR and the HPSCI ranking member on a foreign intelligence targeting surface. A formal counterintelligence review is unlikely before September, as HPSCI is consumed by the DNI leadership crisis and personally compromised by the breach.

DOJ enforcement of Russia export controls remains intact despite IC leadership disruption: additional criminal actions targeting unlicensed technology transfers through intermediary brokers are very likely by year-end, reflecting five to eight annual enforcement actions since 2022. Moderate confidence draws from active cases at multiple pre-trial stages. Settlement in the UK's MI6/MI5 rendition case is unlikely within six months; Jay's pending ruling on policy-document sufficiency is the indicator that would sharpen settlement incentives.

https://icbrief.org/icbrief/

#Intelligence #OSINT #NationalSecurity

The two signs someone is incredibly intelligent, according to philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer

https://fed.brid.gy/r/https://www.upworthy.com/signs-of-intelligence-ex1/