"The present article provides an integrated review of the current state of social science about the ex ante function of legal punishment in affecting criminal behavior."
CONCLUSION
"Unfortunately, so far, the existing empirical work has not had a central place in policy, legislation, and political discourse (Loughran 2019, Nelken & Hamilton 2022). Unsurprisingly, scholars have been frustrated that their insights on, for instance, the inconclusive evidence for the deterrent effect of #incarceration on violent crime or the evidence that treatment can help to rehabilitate have not had sufficient impact (Cullen et al. 2011, McGuire 2013). Empirical research has failed to sway policymakers and political leaders for many reasons, too many to cover fully here."
"Researchers must not give up but instead continue to engage with the public and with policy makers. They also must accept that although many policy makers (or their staffers) may be aware of these conclusions, the accumulated science may not change policy for various reasons, including their constituents’ viewpoints, their perception that being tough on crime will sway voters, and so forth. Yet, researchers should not throw in the towel."
"Given the various costs associated with punishment, this seems to be a paramount consideration."
Benjamin van Rooij, Malouke E. Kuiper, Alex R. Piquero. 2025. How Legal Punishment Affects Crime: An Integrated Understanding of the Law's Punitive Behavioral Mechanisms. Annual Review Law and Social Science. 21:509-526. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-lawsocsci-111524-094646

How Legal Punishment Affects Crime: An Integrated Understanding of the Law's Punitive Behavioral Mechanisms
Punishment plays a major function in preventing crime. Punishment can potentially shape criminal conduct through at least 13 different mechanisms: 5 have a positive effect, reducing crime, and 8 have a negative effect, stimulating offending. This article explains what these 13 potential effects of punishment are and how they have been theorized. It further reviews the body of available empirical evidence for each of these mechanisms. It finds that for many mechanisms there is mixed and inconclusive evidence with major methodological challenges. The article further analyzes the conditions under which punishment affects crime, including the type of crime, offender, and underlying causes and correlates of crime. It also explores the time frames through which punishment affects crime, as well as the ways in which different behavioral effects of punishment interact. The conclusion develops ideas about how this body of empirical work can come to shape criminal justice practice.