Reed MidekeNYT live coverage of one man's ongoing quest for the Nobel Peace Prize
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/02/28/world/iran-strikes-trump?unlocked_article_code=1.PlA.GxET.WCyiQFiRZLKK&smid=url-share
There's comments going around about how Trump started the war to boost GOP chances in the midterms (and indeed, he himself has a long record of accusing others* of that kind if thing) but one problem with that theory is that it's really not popular. Of course, that could change if it turns out to be wildly successful, but at the moment there's little reason to think he's gonna git a big rally around the flag
Even among people who are in principle on board with the idea of regime change in Iran, this is pretty obviously a war of choice with no clear end game. As FT puts it "The US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq in 2001 and 2003 underlined the dangers of “regime change” wars. But those operations look meticulously planned, compared to the current US and Israeli assault on Iran"
https://www.ft.com/content/437130e7-ed4e-4919-8bf3-ac38c2eed6af
Trump has suggested an outcome like Venezuela, but it's hard to see getting there, and not clear whether the public would view that as much of a success. Any, welcome to the 4-5 week SMO, America!
For those skeptical of US friendly fire losses https://www.twz.com/air/tragic-friendly-fire-incidents-are-nothing-new-in-modern-air-warfare
Friendly-Fire Incidents Are Nothing New In Modern Air Warfare
The loss of three F-15Es to friendly fire today is far from the first time similar combat accidents have happened in the post Cold War era. The loss of three F-15Es to friendly fire today is far from the first time similar combat accidents have happened in the post Cold War era.
Now reported that one Kuwaiti F-18 downed those US F-15s. AAM rather than Patriot would explain the high survival rate of the crews
So apparently the CIA is plotting a Kurdish uprising in western Iran. Which to be fair, is 1000% more coherent than anything the rest of the administration has suggested. A self-governing Kurdish enclave could be a fairly good outcome for them, and has relatively successful precedent in Iraq and Syria. But…
https://www.itv.com/news/2026-03-03/united-states-seeking-an-armed-uprising-inside-iran
1) It doesn't obviously support an end game for the war as a whole, aside from the suggestion it could provide a diversion to support a broader uprising
2) Turkey and the Iraqi central government are unlikely to be on board, and Turkey in particular has a history of intervening militarily
3) The US, and Trump in particular have a rather long history of throwing Kurds under the bus when priorities change
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/cia-arming-kurds-iran
CIA working to arm Kurdish forces to spark uprising in Iran, sources say
The CIA is working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising in Iran and the Trump administration has been in active discussions with Iranian opposition groups and Kurdish leaders in Iraq about providing them with military support, multiple people familiar with the talks told CNN.
NYT catalogues Iranian hits on US communication infrastructure. Unlikely to change the big picture, but they're not just lobbing Shaheds at luxury hotels
Arash Azizi on the Kurdish insurgency plan, the groups involved (notably heavy on nominally left-wing factions), and highlighting the extremely obvious risk of things descending into sectarian civil war. Good thing that has never been a problem in the middle east before!
Also notes Iran is already carrying out preemptive strikes in Iraqi Kurdish territory
As this AP story points out, there is also substantial risk of spillover into Iraq, given the large presence of Iran-friendly groups there
https://apnews.com/article/kurdish-dissident-groups-iran-war-iraq-f76efe372becb7d80d3ed026791e67ba
Kurdish dissident groups say they are on standby to join fight against Iran
Kurdish Iranian dissident groups based in northern Iraq are preparing for a potential cross-border military operation in Iran, and the U.S. has asked Iraqi Kurds to support them, Kurdish officials have told The Associated Press. Kurdish party leaders have also discussed the Iran crisis with President Donald Trump, according to Iraqi Kurdish officials. One official says Trump has asked them to open the border and back the groups militarily. Iraqi Kurdish leaders fear Iranian retaliation. Recent drone and missile strikes have already hit the region, damaging homes, and disrupting electricity. Iraq also reinforces the border and the Iraqi government has vowed to stop infiltrations.
Ben Brockert@reedmideke Iraqi Kurdistan sounds like one of the successes of the region, from what I've heard. It's calm enough to be popular for tourism, though probably not as much right now.