Jenny Chase

BNEF's forecasts for solar build over time. We *drastically* underpredicted the amount of solar China would deploy in 2023 and 2024, and also the effect of Russia invading Ukraine.

We cut forecasts a little in late 2025 because the long-expected cannibalization and curtailment is really biting obviously. But now there is a new fossil fuel squeeze so all bets are off really.

Mar 4 at 5:11pmWeb
Show threadJenny ChaseMar 4

Also the rule is that if you want to do this better, you need to specify which markets >80% of it goes to.

(I do have a lever called 'buffer / unknown' which is currently 52GW for 2026 and 147GW for 2030. However clients start asking tough questions if the buffer gets too big, and I can't persuade local analysts to take any more capacity, since they are the actual experts in their markets. They are cowards though.)

Show threadnotsoloudMar 4
@solar_chase
Provide beer for clients
Show threadMartin CiganMar 4
@solar_chase
The question is, what would be a limiting factor for solar deoloyment and what is the level where it would be reached.
Show threadJenny ChaseMar 4

@martincigan curtailment and cannibalisation: we see this widely in individual markets.

Individual markets go down all the time. It's just that new, unsaturated ones rise. But China is probably going down about 60GW this year, and that's a whopper.

Batteries can reverse some of this, but you need a lot of batteries. In 2026, new battery build is expected to hold about 33 minutes of new solar build's peak output. Not bad, not trend-reversing. (Also possibly a cowards' forecast).

Show threadMartin CiganMar 4
@solar_chase I thought that there might, again be some increase in the price of panels or some other equipment due to high demand.
Now I see, this will not be the case.
Show threadLeon OverweelMar 5
@solar_chase is the black line also the actual up to 2025?
Show threadJenny ChaseMar 5
@leonoverweel yes, sorry if that isn't clear. (It's also our best estimate as of 1Q 2026, unfortunately this estimate ALSO swings around a bit as new data is disclosed. My 2025 buffer is down to 3GW).