BNEF's forecasts for solar build over time. We *drastically* underpredicted the amount of solar China would deploy in 2023 and 2024, and also the effect of Russia invading Ukraine.
We cut forecasts a little in late 2025 because the long-expected cannibalization and curtailment is really biting obviously. But now there is a new fossil fuel squeeze so all bets are off really.
@martincigan curtailment and cannibalisation: we see this widely in individual markets.
Individual markets go down all the time. It's just that new, unsaturated ones rise. But China is probably going down about 60GW this year, and that's a whopper.
Batteries can reverse some of this, but you need a lot of batteries. In 2026, new battery build is expected to hold about 33 minutes of new solar build's peak output. Not bad, not trend-reversing. (Also possibly a cowards' forecast).
Jenny Chase
Martin Cigan