I am paying attention to the Likely Republican races this year, as I raise money for Democrats in competitive races, so Democrats can maximize their chances of flipping as many seats as possible if 2026 turns out to be a wave year for Democrats, as early indications show it could be.
18/x
Republican Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz is running for reelection in TX-15.
Cook Political Report considers her race to be Likely Republican.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/485291
19/x
Republican Congressman Chuck Edwards is running for reelection in NC-11.
Cook Political Report considers the race to be Likely Republican.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483756
20/x
From Cook Political Report's page on the US House race in NC-11:
"Jamie Ager, a farmer from Fairview and grandson of a former congressman, is poised to win the Democratic primary next week to take on GOP Rep. Chuck Edwards."
https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483756
21/x
Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34), Henry Cuellar (TX-28), and Don Davis (NC-1) are incumbent Democrats running for reelection in Texas and North Carolina.
The Democratic Primaries for all three candidates are being held today.
22/x
I examined the voting records of Gonzalez, Cuellar, and Davis in the US House in the latest article on my blog, Meticulous Musings.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2026/02/vicente-gonzalez.html
23/x
Don Davis is running unopposed in the Democratic Primary for NC-1.
Cook Political Report considers NC-1 to Lean Republican.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483706
24/x
From Cook Political Report's page on the US House race in NC-1:
"Rep. Don Davis is, without a doubt, the most vulnerable House Democrat in the country."
https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/483706
25/x
Vicente Gonzalez faces a challenge from Etienne Rosas, a progressive, in the Democratic primary in the South Texas District of TX-34.
I discussed Gonzalez and Rosas in the latest article on my blog, Meticulous Musings.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2026/02/vicente-gonzalez.html
26/x
Cook Political Report considers the US House race in TX-34 to be a tossup.
https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/485386
27/x
Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar faces two challengers in the Democratic primary in Texas-28: Ricardo Villarreal and Andrew Vantine.
Texas-28 is located in South Texas.
28/x
The Democratic Victory Fund, an ActBlue Supporter Form that I maintain, has raised money for Ricardo Villarreal.
29/x
In 2024, Henry Cuellar was indicted on conspiracy and bribery charges.
From the AP:
"From 2014 to 2021, Cuellar, 68, and his wife accepted nearly $600,000 in bribes from an Azerbaijan-controlled energy company and a bank in Mexico, and in exchange, Cuellar agreed to advance the interests of the country and the bank in the U.S., according to the indictment."
https://apnews.com/article/henry-cuellar-texas-azerbaijan-ddb1dea393ba88d8d823557ec6c0d93a
30/x
Democratic U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas and his wife have been indicted on conspiracy and bribery charges in connection with a federal probe into their ties with the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan. The U.S. Department of Justice said the couple surrendered to authorities on Friday and were taken into custody. It said they made an initial appearance before a federal judge in Houston and were each released on $100,000 bond. Cuellar released a statement Friday denying any wrongdoing. According to the federal indictment, the couple accepted nearly $600,000 in bribes from an Azerbaijan-controlled energy company and a bank in Mexico in exchange for advancing the interests of the country and the bank in the U.S.
The AP continued:
"Among other things, Cuellar agreed to influence legislation favorable to Azerbaijan and deliver a pro-Azerbaijan speech on the floor of the U.S. House, the indictment states."
31/x
In December, President Trump pardoned Cuellar and his wife.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-pardons-texas-congressman-cuellar-wife-2025-12-03/
32/x
After granting Cuellar a pardon, Trump learned Cuellar was going to run for reelection as a Democrat.
So, Trump threw a hissy fit on Truth Social, a very presidential thing to do.
33/x
Cuellar has maintained that he and his wife are innocent of the charges that were brought against them.
34/x
I donated to Jessica Cisneros, a progressive who challenged Cuellar in the 2022 Democratic Primary.
The race proceeded to a runoff, where Cuellar won by only 281 votes, or 0.6%.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2022/12/my-2022-political-donations.html
35/x
Cook Political Report considers the US House race in TX-28 to Lean Democrat.
CPR:
"Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina is guaranteed to win the Republican primary for Texas-28, setting him up for a tough fight against Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in November."
https://www.cookpolitical.com/house/race/485356
36/x
If you appreciate my political coverage, you can support my work on Patreon.
https://www.patreon.com/cw/MeticulousMusings
37/x
If you'd like to support Democrats running in important and competitive races in 2026, you can donate to the Democratic Victory Fund.
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/democraticvictoryfund
38/x
The Democratic Victory Fund has raised $106.19 for Roy Cooper, who is running for the US Senate in North Carolina.
39/x
The Democratic Victory fund has raised $28.75 for Ricardo Villarreal, who is running against Henry Cuellar.
The fund has raised $28.74 for Etienne Rosas, who is running against Vicente Gonzalez.
The fund has raised $14.70 for James Talarico, who is running for the US Senate in Texas.
40/x
Now, let's take a closer look at the US House members who are taking part in today's primaries.
43/x
Jasmine Crockett was first elected to Congress in 2022.
Crockett was reelected to congress in 2024 by a margin of 70%.
44/x
Jasmine Crockett voted against a federal transgender sports ban in 2023.
Crockett voted against blocking student debt relief, which means she voted to allow student debt relief.
She voted for military aid to Ukraine, and for military aid to Israel.
45/x
Jasmine Crockett voted against a federal transgender sports ban in 2025.
Crockett voted against the big ugly bill, and against cutting funding for NPR & PBS.
She signed the Epstein discharge petition, and she voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act.
She also voted against a trans youth gender-affirming healthcare ban.
46/x
I dislike that Jasmine Crockett voted to approve military aid to Israel in April 2024.
But her overall voting record in Congress is outstanding.
She voted the right way on the other nine votes included in the tables above.
47/x
Chuck Edwards (R) was first elected to Congress in 2022.
He was reelected in 2024 by a margin of 13.5%.
48/x
Chuck Edwards (R) voted in favor of a federal transgender sports ban in 2023.
Edwards voted to block student debt relief.
He voted to approve military aid to Ukraine and Israel.
49/x
Chuck Edwards (R) voted in favor of a federal transgender sports ban in 2025.
Edwards voted for the Big Ugly Bill, and voted to cut NPR & PBS.
He didn't sign the Epstein Discharge Petition, but he did vote for the Epstein Files Transparency Act.
He voted in favor of a trans youth gender-affirming healthcare ban.
50/x
I like that Chuck Edwards (R) voted for military aid to Ukraine, and for the Epstein Files Transparency Act.
But his overall voting record in Congress is quite bad.
He voted the wrong way on eight of the ten key votes included in the tables above.
51/x
Monica De La Cruz (R) was first elected to Congress in 2022.
She was reelected in 2024 by 14.2%.
52/x
Monica De La Cruz (R) voted in favor of a federal trans sports ban in 2023.
De La Cruz voted to block student debt relief.
She voted against military aid to Ukraine, and for military aid to Israel.
53/x
Monica De La Cruz (R) voted in favor of a federal trans sports ban in 2025.
De La Cruz voted for the Big Ugly Bill, and for cuts to NPR & PBS.
She didn't sign the Epstein Discharge Petition, but she did vote for the Epstein Files Transparency Act.
She voted in favor of a trans youth gender-affirming healthcare ban.
54/x
Monica De La Cruz voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act.
But her overall voting record in Congress is quite bad.
She voted the wrong way on 9 out of 10 key votes included in the tables above.
55/x
Roy Cooper has won the Democratic Primary in the US Senate election in North Carolina.
56/x
With 74% of votes counted,
Roy Cooper: 92.3%
Justin Dues: 2.5%
Marcus Williams: 2.4%
57/x
Cooper leads by a margin of 89.8%.
58/x
Michael Whatley has won the Republican Primary for the US Senate election in North Carolina.
59/x
With 87% of votes counted,
Michael Whatley: 64.4%
Donald Brown: 15.7%
Thomas Johnson: 5.7%
60/x
Whatley leads by a margin of 48.7%.
61/x
In the US House race in NC-11, Republican Congressman Chuck Edwards will run against Democrat Jamie Ager in the general election.
Cook Political Report considers the House race to be Likely Republican.
62/x
With 47% of votes counted, John Cornyn leads in the Republican primary in the US Senate election in Texas.
John Cornyn: 42.8%
Ken Paxton: 40.6%
Wesley Hunt: 13.1%
If no candidate receives more than 50%, the primary will proceed to a runoff.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/us/elections/results-texas-primary.html
63/x
With 46% of votes counted, James Talarico leads in the Democratic primary in thee US Senate election in Texas.
James Talarico: 53.1%
Jasmine Crockett: 45.8%
Ahmad Hassan: 1.2%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/us/elections/results-texas-primary.html
64/x
Cuellar and Gonzalez are ahead in their Democratic primaries.
Neither race has yet been called.
65/x
Neither the Democratic nor Republican primaries in the open US House race in TX-35 has been called.
66/x
You can support Democrats running in important and competitive races in 2026 by donating to the Democratic Victory Fund.
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/democraticvictoryfund
67/x
Democratic Congressman Vicente Gonzalez has won the Democratic primary in TX-34, in South Texas.
Cook Political Report considers the race to be a tossup in the general election.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/us/elections/results-texas-us-house-34-primary.html
68/x
You can learn all about Vicente Gonzalez on my blog, Meticulous Musings.
https://jasonbeets.blogspot.com/2026/02/vicente-gonzalez.html
69/x
With 64% of votes counted,
Vicente Gonzalez: 62.8%
Etienne Rosas: 37.2%
Gonzalez leads by a margin of 25.6%.
70/x
Etienne Rosas has been removed from the Democratic Victory Fund, following his loss in the Democratic Primary in TX-34.
71/x
John Cornyn and Ken Paxton will compete in a May 26 runoff election, the New York Times reports.
72/x
His race against Jasmine Crockett was called late after confusion over legal challenges about voting in Dallas County. Senator John Cornyn, a four-term Republican, was forced into a runoff with Ken Paxton.
With 87% of votes counted,
James Talarico: 53.0%
Jasmine Crockett: 45.6%
Ahmad Hassan: 1.3%
Talarico leads by a margin of 7.4%.
74/x
A map created by the New York Times shows Crockett doing better in the eastern third of Texas, and Talarico doing better in the western two-thirds of Texas.
75/x
Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar has won his primary in Texas-28, in South Texas.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/us/elections/results-texas-us-house-28-primary.html
76/x
With more than 95% of votes counted,
Henry Cuellar: 58.1%
Ricardo Villarreal: 36.9%
Andrew Vantine: 5.0%
Cuellar leads by a margin of 21.2%.
77/x
Republican Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz will run against Democrat Bobby Pulido in the general election in TX-15.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/us/elections/results-texas-us-house-15-primary.html
78/x
Jason Beets
