David Sirota

Polymarket has created a market that would monetize a nuclear attack amid increasing concerns that bets are happening among government insiders who can make military decisions.

What stage of the apocalypse is this?

https://polymarket.com/event/nuclear-weapon-detonation-by-562

Mar 4 at 12:11amWeb
Show threadKNovaMar 4
@davidsirota So when it becomes financially appealing to someone in the upper echelons of government, this is definitely happening.
Show threadsu_liamMar 4
@knova @davidsirota That Fallout show really had the motivations of psychopathic billionaires pegged.
Show threadBo TallyMar 4
@davidsirota I wonder what would happen if America ever elected a crazed ,disreputable , greed-ridden casino owner as president.
Show threadCapt. TonyMar 4
@BoTally54
Casino bankruptor
@davidsirota
Show threadBeccaMar 4
@davidsirota fucked?
Show threadpelhaMar 4
@davidsirota arrgghh, AI doesn't care if the whole earth becomes radioactive
Show threadsu_liamMar 4
@davidsirota In the event that I survive, I will walk the wasteland and one by one crush the heads of the winners of this wager.
Show threadJudah The MacMar 4
@davidsirota it's the stage where the purposefully guillible start posting the most paranoid shit possible to get upvotes
Show thread✨buff dog himbo✨Mar 4
@judah @davidsirota "purposefully gullible" is not a thing the way "willfully ignorant" is lmao.
Show thread✨buff dog himbo✨Mar 4
@[email protected] @davidsirota they described themselves as a "big ole gnarly Zionist" so that's gonna be an insta-block from me, babe
Show threadEdelruth, PBS Passport HolderMar 4

@davidsirota

Which 'side' has players dumb enough to believe the winners of the bet will be able to collect their winnings?

Show threadPorkrollPosadistMar 4
@davidsirota
Show threadLIPSERVANTMar 4

@davidsirota

As they say in the ads, even when you win, you lose.

Show threadankiadictMar 4
@davidsirota this issue with people making money off betting about bad things in the future cna be really easily fixed by just not using money.
if people bet with monopoly money on the future you could still get acurate odds without the ethical fallout (no pun intended)
Show threadJargogglesMar 4
@davidsirota
I'll bet a million billion gajillion dollars that a nuclear exchange doesn't happen. Who's going to come collect if it does?
Show threadAndrew Benedict-NelsonMar 4
@jargoggles @davidsirota the Oankali, but it's complicated https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lilith%27s_Brood
Lilith's Brood - Wikipedia

Show threadbkMar 4
@davidsirota
This needs to stop.
Show threadAndrew Benedict-NelsonMar 4
@davidsirota since no one else said it, I had better: the dumbest stage
Show threaddisorderlyfMar 4
@davidsirota wait, do tests count or is this just "a nuke is used against a specific target"?
Show threadChilly  🛡️ Mar 4
@davidsirota
Polymarkets are terrible and shouldn't exist but the bet has been removed
Show thread2rad0Mar 4

@davidsirota

We're right about mid-stage. Only textual sources I can find point to around July 2028.

Show threadMaho PachecoMar 4
@davidsirota that is from the documentary fallout
Show threadRobert [KJ5ELX] Mar 4
@davidsirota it's the apocalypse-bro stage.
Show threadRobert JamesMar 4
@davidsirota I don't think the profits even for told this.
Show threadFrançois @JuraMar 4
@davidsirota Trump would detonate a nuclear bomb if it could earn him billions on the betting market.
Show threadD. G. MarshallMar 4

@davidsirota

So far, the 1980s dystopian comedy Whoops Apocalypse has been pretty prophetic for this timeline.

Imbecile Republican President.

Staged assassination attempt to raise his polling for re-election.

Regime change to put the son of the Shah of Iran on the throne.

Now it looks like one of the darkest bits is about to happen.

No, no betting on nuclear war.

They had a nuclear war that started with: "The missing nuke has been found. It was seen going off in Israel."

Show threadguentherMar 4
@davidsirota Can we reduce the risk of nuclear war by betting on it happening (thus making it more attractive for inside traders to prevent it)?
Show threadUltra Verified 🇺🇦 🇬🇱Mar 4

@davidsirota

3 hours

Any takers?

Show threadsonja dolinsekMar 4
@davidsirota ,"the event has been archived"
Show threadMaksiSanctum has movedMar 4
@davidsirota WTF?
Show threadMarjorieRMar 4

@davidsirota well Polymarket finally wised up and pulled the bet.
Too much as temptation for someone to engineer a nuclear 'incident' so they could make a little money.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/polymarket-quietly-pulls-nuclear-detonation-145615266.html

Polymarket quietly pulls nuclear detonation prediction market after it draws nearly $850K in bets

"This is worse than any dystopia we could've imagined."

Yahoo News