🦋 Ben West - 🐒🌻Mar 3
BrianKrebs

Saw a few videos this morning of Iranian drones targeting US military bases and blowing shit up. I was struck by how loud and slow these things are. It's as if the loudest leafblower on the planet had wings and a propeller.

This AP News story has some good detail on Iran's response to its neighbors, which indicates the majority of the many, many missiles and drones Iran sent at or near the UAE were intercepted, but that some less defended places were still hit due to the volume of the missile/drone volley.

"Officials in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates said Sunday that air defenses had dealt with 165 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles and more than 540 Iranian drones over two days. While officials said they intercepted all air attacks Saturday, debris from the knocked-down weapons sparked blazes at some of Dubai’s most iconic locations."

"Some Iranian drones flew as far as a U.K. military base in Cyprus. The runway at the Royal Air Force base in Akrotiri was struck by an Iranian drone Sunday, according to U.K. officials, and sirens blared there again Monday when two more drones heading toward the base were intercepted."

"State-of-the-art U.S. and Israeli air defense assets have proven efficient in intercepting most of Iran’s ballistic missiles launched at Israel. But the attacks using large numbers of cheap drones hit some softer targets lacking the same level of protection."

https://apnews.com/article/iran-us-israel-gulf-war-drone-49c8ea76358e579447ff839485f394ac

Iranian drones buzz across the Persian Gulf after their pivotal use by Russia in Ukraine

The distinctive buzz of the Iranian-designed drones has become a familiar sound in Ukraine over the past four years. Now, it’s increasingly heard across the Persian Gulf as Tehran strikes back with the cheap but effective weapons following the attack by the U.S. and Israel against Iran. The Shahed drones have made a transformative impact on the modern battlefield, with Russia sending swarms of the deadly weapons into the skies above Ukraine on nightly missions. While ballistic and cruise missiles fly much faster and pack a bigger punch, they cost millions and are available only in limited quantities. A Shahed drone costs only tens of thousands of dollars — a tiny fraction of a ballistic missile.

AP News
Mar 3 at 4:21pmWeb
Show threada high doomMar 3
@briankrebs ive heard a few refer to them as flying lawnmowers. Operators make them loud as an anxiety/fear amplifier.
Show threadVissMar 3
@h2onolan @briankrebs the hobby ones, the ones i call quads, the 5" acro drones i used to flip over trees and stuff - those are similar. they are the opposite of covert. flying blenders. you can hear them for blocks in every direction, and thats not even when they're going full tilt.
Show threadErik AblesonMar 3
@h2onolan @briankrebs That seems correct from the pictures I’ve seen. Simple two-stroke lawnmower engines that probably cost about $5 to produce
Show threadJojo Mar 3

@briankrebs

How much cost, effort, stress, time to make and launch one of those drones?

How much cost, effort, stress, time to make the intercept equipment and operate it sufficiently?

Show threadJestbillMar 3
@jojo @briankrebs Since they've been making 'em for Russia, they likely have efficient factories, stockpiles.
Show threadferricoxideMar 3
@briankrebs

The three F15Es that got killed were supposedly due to there being so much flight-activity in the intercept control-zone. Basically, so much that the IFF method the F15Es were using got lost in the signal-clutter.

That the US is now deploying LUCAS is really going to accelerate the need for markedly more-capable signals-processing (to increase the saturation-threshold). If there wasn't so much destruction, casualties and loss of life, it'd be purely academically interesting.
Show threadAcalarchMar 3
@briankrebs I guess CRAM is too old school? I dont get it.
Show threadJoão Tiago Rebelo (NAFO J-121)Mar 3
@acalarch the Centurion/LPWX (not the Phalanx CIWS) has been made in numbers so low that even the US didn't (doesn't?) have enough for all of its branches (I remember the US Navy having to wait for them in 2008, so no kinectic C-RAM on several ships for months/years, the CIWS stayed or was installed to make up for it). Israel's Iron Dome uses a variation on some AA batteries if I'm not wrong, but apart from that, C-RAM is still a US4.000.000 missiles vs US35.000 targets domain.
Even the US used their own Shahed copy to swarm Iran's AA defenses.
@briankrebs
Show threadSystem AdminihaterMar 3
@briankrebs Those drones only cost like $30k and you can buy them on Temu (not really but basically) and they take out things that cost millions of dollars.
Show threadDarwin WoodkaMar 3

@briankrebs

But Ukraine is now building "quiet" drones, so this drone technology is going to improve rapidly as the drone wars escalate...

Show threadcrispy branzino ☭ (sold out forever)Mar 3
@darwinwoodka @briankrebs reminder that upwards of four interceptors are fired for every projectile, drone, or loitering munition detected and tracked. Iran knows this, and is using old stock. Unguided missiles and kamikaze drones.

At up to 4:1 burn rate the USA will run out of intercept capability well before Iran runs out of ordinance, and the USA only has one supplier for its 2.5 million dollar interceptors.

Iran is backed by Russian geospatial intelligence. Once launchers are confirmed depleted, they will switch to high explosive guided cruise missiles and more advanced weapons systems. Iranian TELAR, guided weapons and radar technology comes from 3 suppliers (China, Iran, and Russia) so the resupply and replacement is more resilient than Americas patriot.

I postulate contrary to potus, we cannot sustain our ops tempo for five months.
Show threadSterlingMar 4
@briankrebs