Many countries have nuclear weapons and all of them make me uncomfortable. Russia, North Korea, the US...
Is "this country might get a powerful bomb, possibly maybe later, we swear to God it's real this time" a good reason to attack them? Is anyone buying this at all?
I think attacking a country gives them *more* reasons to make bigger bombs and ... attack back?
Am I too naive to understand international politics?
I think I'm being gaslit by the media into feeling like this is too complicated for me to understand when it's really very simple. Nothing the US is doing is about pursuing peace, or making the lives of any ordinary person in any country (especially the US) any better.
These guys are excited to have control of the US military and all of that power and are just making up excuses to do things with it.
There is no justification. No benefit.
@futurebird Oh, I'm sure that there's a bunch of other reasons in there, too from various parties. I just don't know whether those are at the forefront of the "reasoning" of the decision-makers, or just in the minds of the people feeding them ideas.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves_in_Iran
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/science/why-venezuela-has-more-oil-than-any-country-on-earth/articleshow/128499683.cms
"follow the money" is often a good way to understand the truth.
But I don't even think this makes sense from that standpoint. Not totally.
This is more like what would happen if you gave me a big box of fireworks and told me to "keep them safe"
After a few weeks you'd hear the cracks and booms of me setting them off just to see what happened.
only, this is a lot less fun.
@futurebird @darkling I believe there are many factors at work. Yes, there is the hind-brain, emotional high of "We have power now, let's show it off!"
But there's also "Why do people in my country not understand I'm saving them? I should explain it louder."
And all the rationalizations: "But Iran is a bad guy! They might get dangerous!" and "We need to demonstrate power so people will know how strong we are!"
And the unstated motivations: "If we're at war, we can declare a state of emergency and force the country to vote for us. We have the power, so we must be the good guys, and what we want is obviously good for everyone, therefore it's in everyone's best interest for us to control everything forever." and "Israel has good ideas!" and "It feels good when I can be mean to people and they can't fight back."
Ick. I'm not sure "uncomfortable" really captures my level of nausea and worry after writing this.
It's weird how there's been pretty much nothing at all done to even try to justify these strikes.
The build-up to the Iraq war had all kinds of dossiers and presentations at the UN etc, now they aren't even bothering and just going straight to the bombings without any discussion.
The Iranians were literally in the middle of negotiating with the US government when Trump started bombing them:
Why would anyone negotiate with Trump ever again?
Most people are not paying attention. I think they have realized that.
But we could change this I think.
@futurebird @FediThing it was pretty clear the negotiations didn't yield the results the admin expected though (realistic or not), so many people are unsurprised by the escalation, and certainly the iranian gov isn't either.
recent events globally made it clear nukes are the only real garantee of not being attacked (ukraine/russia, but also the dprk), and everyone who doesn't have them certainly want them now.
my only hope is that this get rid of this terrible regime and make the iranian free
@tshirtman @futurebird @FediThing I don't know how bombing primary schools and killing children will make people who are getting bombed free.
Especially because these people still remember what it was like for them to live under dictatorship installed by those who are currently doing the bombing.
I'm not a geopolitician but I have a vague suspicion that if anything, this war will set back the fight of Iranian people against their regime, because they now have some more pressing goals (not to be killed in the strikes, also maybe not becoming US puppet state because it worked so well for Iran the last time).
@IngaLovinde @futurebird @FediThing The people i know closer to this (iranian expats, people of iranian descent, generally coworkers and friends), people want this regime to fall, and even if not everyone is onboard with the old shah's son as a successor, far from it, they are very much down with anything to replace the mollahs and any self proclaimed islamist, really.
And they tried to rise, but the regim is brutal, and has a lot of goons (basijs) ready to do the dirty work of keeping "order".
@IngaLovinde @futurebird @FediThing I don't know if that's what's happened—and we must be extremely careful with information— but weeks ago, someone i follow warned against the risk of the regime bombarding its own civilians (we know they don't care about them, given the recent heavy repression), for propaganda reasons, to turn the opinion against the US (and Israel, etc), by accusing them of this crime.
I wouldn't put it past either side to kill civilians, but the US knows it would be bad PR.
@IngaLovinde @futurebird @FediThing I'm not alleging, i'm not accusing, i'm saying that it would make sense for iranian rulers to bomb their own people when the USA and Israel are bombing legitimate military targets, to delegitimize the operation, so that, we, the people in EU and US, ask the war to stop.
Again, i don't *know* that it happened, i'm saying, we must be careful.
And yes, this accusation is also used by russia against ukraine, but i give it any air in this case.
I hope this is true.
@FediThing
@FediThing @futurebird and they were in the middle of negotiating with the US government when the strikes started the last year, too!
Not to mention that years before that, they negotiated to the end, signed the deal, fulfilled their part of the deal, and then US just said "you know what, we changed our mind, we're cancelling the deal", and all the other signatories in EU went like "well, if Trump said so, guess we won't be fulfilling our part either".
Yup, Trump threw away a peace deal that everyone had already agreed to for no proper reason.
.. nobody expected the spanisch inquisition ..
@futurebird "These guys are excited to have control of the US military and all of that power and are just making up excuses to do things with it."
THIS. TOTALLY. Not only is it not well-intentioned benevolence, it isn't even competent amoral imperialist realpolitik. It's a schoolyard bully's idea of what imperialism would look like. Real American imperialists like James K. Polk, William McKinley, and Henry Kissinger would be appalled at the squandering of resources and of the good will of allies for no gain.
This is the exact opposite of making America great.
@futurebird Even here in the UK this is painfully obvious. Literally intoxicated by power to 100% blindsight themselves to what they are really doing to millions of decent Americans .. and now Iranians ... and indirectly to Palestinians via Israel.
If only we could have political systems across the world that vetted EVERY candidate at every level to weed out psychopaths and the like and ensured they attracted people who care and want to help others.
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