RE: https://mastodon.social/@blogdiva/116127740444038853

The unadmitted reason this is happening (and the AI bubble besides): Moore's Law *has ended*. The only way for hardware sales to go in future is *down* because your next PC or Mac will work just fine until it breaks or dies of old age. So by ramping prices artificially via this RAM/SSD futures bullshit, they're keeping profits high for as long as possible.

@cstross I am willing to entertain the "we're going to get rid of consumer computer hardware that isn't rented" scenario.

In the 1970s, there was a thriving market for making, selling, and applying custom/aftermarket car parts. The entire auto industry systematically murdered it by successively moving cars into a space where you couldn't do that. It's not like we don't know a large market can't be expunged.

The incumbents have a strong general incentive to keep people from having options.

@graydon @cstross that's not fair - there was no attempt to kill aftermarket parts, the aftermarket is thriving.

A poor comparison

@furicle @graydon @cstross indeed. My car is in the shop *right now* having 3rd party parking sensors added.
@falken @furicle @graydon @cstross Speaking of parking sensors, my mother bought a new car 3 years ago. The model she chose included parking sensors, and had to be sold with them – except thanks to the shortages, Opel couldn't actually include them, so the dealership had to add aftermarket sensors to the car.
@jernej__s @falken @graydon @cstross
GM supplied them for my truck a good nine months after purchase, along with the seat warmer controller computer.
Gave me a discount for it at least.

@furicle @cstross It is not what it was and a whole lot of effort has gone into, e.g. doing things with on board computers to prevent off-brand parts. (Not, in autos, as much as in heavy machinery including farm machinery.) "Right to repair" didn't start with small electronic gadgets.

Or look at the cost of replacing a headlight; lots of effort has gone into making you buy the big assembly and not either a standard headlight or replacing a bulb.

@graydon @furicle This goes back a long way, though. I remember being appalled in 1991 when the windscreen wiper on my car packed up and discovering it needed a sealed assembly with motor, gearing, and two arms to fix it—it wasn't designed to be repairable. (I shared a house with a car kitbasher, though, so he got it working again: opened it up and replaced the stripped plastic gear.)

@cstross @furicle Back to at least to the 1970s!

The core point I'm after is that collusion across entire industries to prevent unwanted behavior (that is, not giving them maximal money) has a deep history of being found completely legal and proper and more or less working.

A combination of pricing people out of the market and pressure to make every device a managed device has been going on about personal computing hardware for at least ten years. Turning that up to 11 isn't implausible.

@graydon @cstross @furicle There's a reason I'm not too upset about a supply chain collapse. (Although I'm watching food distribution closely.)

A raspberry pi is an outright miracle of computing... by 1990s standards. It can be a media center, server, gaming, the works. The sane open source people make the same hardware do more over time.

Alas Linux stopped being sane ~10 years ago, because https://www.zdnet.com/article/graying-linux-developers-look-for-new-blood/ eventually became the "here's a nickel kid" dilbert strip unix greybeards.

Graying Linux developers look for new blood

The top Linux developers are getting older and The Linux Foundation is addressing the issue.

ZDNET

@cstross @graydon

The parts are bought by the OEMs as assemblies, and installed as assemblies. They aren't interested in fixing them as it's cheaper to use whole units that robots assemble.

No attempt to kill the aftermarket - the aftermarket is happy to sell whole wiper motors instead of almost zero profit bushings springs and brushes, and one part instead of 1000 per car.

Lots of things have changed, and may be anti consumer, not arguing that, but it's driven by costs and requirements.

@furicle @cstross @graydon
I think it is actually easier to get one bushing etc than it was in 1985 (the last time I rebuilt an engine)
@furicle @cstross @graydon
For two reasons: a record that a bushing is in stock in the warehouse is more likely to mean it is in stock in the warehouse;
All bushings in the world can be found, and posted.
@cstross @graydon @furicle At various repair cafés over the past year I've fixed 3 Kenwood mixers, the oldest from 1950 was easy to disassemble and repair with common parts, the second from the 1990s or early 2000 had a simple break away pin to save the gear box if you overstressed it and the latest one from 2020 had a sealed gearbox where the drive shaft had bent £70 to replace. Planned obsolescence.

@ianturton @cstross @graydon @furicle

gorilla amps were usually 25 watts, if not 50 watts. they shipped with 15 watt speakers. blew 'em out. i replaced the blown speakers with ones rated for the amps. nice little second income for a year or so.

@cstross @graydon @furicle one of the brake lights on my previous car broke. What should have been a $5 bulb, instead I was quoted $700 to import the assembly from Japan, plus labour. For a brake light, likely illegal for me to drive it without paying $700 to fix it.
@graydon @furicle @cstross The headlight thing is less bad in the USA today than it was in, say, the 80s, when all cars had “sealed beam” headlights by law. With ordinary headlights today, you can buy just the bulb. I’m guessing that LED headlights require you to buy the whole unit.

@graydon @cstross again, wasn't the intention.

Modern headlights throw a lot more light than any old headlamp, and aerodynamic styling and mileage drives custom swept shapes that aren't standard

We used to replace bulbs often, now it's only when defective or damaged.

There was no conspiracy to kill the aftermarket

@graydon @furicle @cstross Obama's "cash for clunkers" program was another direct attack on aftermarket parts, by eliminating working vehicles that predated the Digital Millennium Copyright Act's anti-circumvention provisions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-JOYGlsnKw

Late stage capitalism performing regulatory capture literally bought them and destroyed them en masse.

Government "Helps" By Destroying 700,000 Working Cars - Cash For Clunkers

YouTube