Ron JeffriesRE: https://mastodon.social/@searls/116115186760077991
I'm afraid that Justin is onto something here. If these AI things ever work - and surely someday they will - they are going to be more disruptive than anything in our lifetimes.
Stephen 🌈 (he/him)@RonJeffries Ironically I voted for Andrew Yang b/c I saw this coming. 😂😢😭
Brian Marick@RonJeffries The history of the revolutionary 19th century is relevant. “The revolutions were shaped by a wide variety of causes, which were linked to the short- and long-term socioeconomic transformations brought about by industrialization and the political legacy of the French Revolution.”
Those revolutions all failed, even when people *had* a political legacy to look back to and were under a far weaker surveillance state. I suspect the oligarchs agree w/ Justin, and think they’re safe.
@marick are we then, fucked in your view?
Spoofer3I like to put these kinds of questions onto a Wardley Map. Which basically says that some things that were previously expensive become more commodity like, which enable a new wave of innovation because the enabling technology is no longer cost prohibitive.
I tend to agree that there will be significant job restructuring and society can make the transition in a slow and steady way or an abrupt and sudden way. What I don't know is to what degree or what time frame it will happen over.
@Spoofer3 @RonJeffries Argh. I have some thoughts about the dynamics of definitions that may be relevant, but I am struggling to express them. (Not just here, but in a draft blog post.)
In the meantime, your note has an actual hyperlink. Does this imply that [markdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Pierson) works on Mastodon?
@Spoofer3 @RonJeffries Apparently not. Are you using <a> tags, like a savage?
<a href=“https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Pierson”>Let’s see.</a>
@Spoofer3 @RonJeffries OK, what black magic did you do to get `Wardley Map` be a hyperlink?
@marick @RonJeffries Pretty sure it was markdown ala
[markdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Markdown) but I'll try again here and see if it works. It might be a feature of the instance my account is from?@marick @RonJeffries In my mastodon settings -> preferences -> posting defaults, I've selected markdown...but that is likely an instance enabled feature.
@Spoofer3 @RonJeffries Alas, there’s nothing like that in the mstdn.social preferences.
Bill Seitz@marick @Spoofer3 @RonJeffries I think the markdown links come from non-mastodon systems that publish to Mastodon over ActivityPub.
@RonJeffries I have no idea.
I wish I did. Even if wrong, certainty is comfortable.
Martijn FaassenYou can't sell anything if nobody has the money to buy anything.
I'd also argue there were plenty of positive social changes in 19th century Europe that stuck. A revolutionary government failing doesn't mean no changes happen. Ask the French revolution.
If indeed we get massive unemployment of most office workers, something I worry about but I'm definitely not certain about (cheap computation didn't make accountants redundant, for instance), I'm convinced we're in for a wild ride.
Data centers are concentrated, and have power plugs.
@faassen @RonJeffries I think the original quote (“short-term and long-term socioeconomic transformations”) agrees with you.
What the history of revolution says, I guess, is that while what you say about data centers is true, we should realize it’s easy to hire vast numbers of people with guns to defend the power plugs.
The point of a surveillance state is efficiency: you need fewer guns to maintain the desirable social order.
Yes. Like Pinkerton detectives to crush labor strikes.
History will only rhyme as always. I do suspect people will find new, unusual ways to reclaim power.