Charlie Stross

Welp, it's all kicking off this week in AI!

Nvidia is going all squishy over a planned $100Bn investment in OpenAI:

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/02/nvidia-stock-price-openai-funding.html

Microsoft Azure income shrank 2% despite huge investment by MSFT and knocked a $375Bn hole in their finances: MSFT shares down 10% in 3 days:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/02/02/shares-down-10-earnings-call-microsoft-stock/

… Is the AI bubble over?

Feb 4 at 8:42pmWeb
Show threadPeterFeb 4
@cstross you'll know when the DJI drops 25%
Show threadMichael W Lucas Feb 4

@cstross

here we go again!

Show threadadamriceFeb 4
@cstross Nvidia investing in OpenAI sounds like blowing smoke up your own ass in order to levitate.
Show threadCharlie StrossFeb 4
@adamrice Exactly! How come you spotted it while all the blue chip funds didn't notice?
Show threadBruno NicolettiFeb 4
@cstross @adamrice Fear of missing out on the upswing. Most investors are not driven by any rational analysis but by two instincts, greed and fear. Looks like we are in the middle of the flip from one mode to the other.
Show threadBecca 🌳🚀🛀Feb 4
@bjn @cstross @adamrice It's a promo to drive sales yet again. I'm looking forward to the GPU and RAM flash sales. I have some nice local model things I wanna try, without data sharing across the interwebs.
Show threadLichoFeb 4

@cstross
1. The classic game of chicken
2. Echo chamber of yes men
3. They have the insider knowledge when the dump will happen.

That's my experience from the crypto world. That's how it usually happens. They will be the ones to scream "buy the dip, the upside is still unlimited" while emptying their bags on the retail investors.

@adamrice

Show threadFi 🏳️‍⚧️Feb 4

@cstross

the rocket motor's burned out and the vehicle is coasting; we'll have to wait a bit before we see how hard it comes down I expect.

Show threadlemgandiFeb 4

@cstross

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Show threadSeán FenianFeb 4
@cstross Meanwhile Mozilla promised a one-step 'AI kill switch' in Firefox 148, and Vivaldi's CEO said "We've learned that frankly, people hate AI."
Show threadSteve DowneyFeb 4

@cstross But simultaneously the debt market is selling off bonds from SaaS companies on the panic that AI will replace them.

Two crashes on opposite sides of the same bet.

yay

Show threadDan SugalskiFeb 4
@Sdowney @cstross Every time anyone talks about the invisible hand of the market, or the wisdom of the markets, I just... point them at what the actual market does and laugh.
Show threadJohn GriffithsFeb 4
@Sdowney @cstross both sides can be insanely overvalued at the same time!
Show threadcliffordheathFeb 4
@johnboy @Sdowney @cstross It's almost like both sides provide things that won't be needed when everyone is suddenly reduced to subsistence farming
Show threadJohn GriffithsFeb 4
@cliffordheath @Sdowney @cstross and 7 billion people die in a year :-(
Show threadJim JonesFeb 4
@cstross Oof. That Microsoft dip is not pretty.
Show threadCharlie StrossFeb 4
@GreatBigTable Palantir are down a similar amount!
Show threadJim JonesFeb 4
@cstross You hate to see it. Really.
Show threadJürgen HubertFeb 5

@cstross @GreatBigTable

In both cases, the founders appeared in the Epstein files.

Show threadcubeosFeb 4
@cstross Microsoft Azure Income grew. by 39% year over year. It just grew 2% less than some people expected.
Show threadDianne HackbornFeb 4

@cstross

"The longtime chief also criticized a lack of discipline in OpenAI’s business strategy"

Meaning they wouldn't be spending enough of that money on Nvidia's GPUs?

Show threadS. LottFeb 4
@cstross What’s A16Z going to throw money at next? Have they started burning piles of money in worship of some other Big New Thing™? Until the A16Z rocket fuel dries up, I think we’re stuck watching this mess.
Show threadJamesFeb 4

@cstross

I asked ChatGPT:
Bottom line:
Yes, in the last 48 hours there are clear signs of stress across AI-linked stocks, rising skepticism, and valuation readjustment — which feels bubble-ish. But no, there’s not yet decisive evidence that the entire AI boom is bursting. It’s more like a market correction and repricing, with risk shifting from hype toward real earnings and competition.

If you want, I can break this down by specific companies, sectors (chips vs. software vs. services), or what this might mean for investing or the broader economy.

Bubble-ish….like ChatGPT is a 45 yo guy from Brooklyn.

And then it requested access to my microphone.

Maybe the day will come when it doesn’t ask.

Show threadthe esoteric programmerFeb 4
@cstross nah, it's probably not over, at least not yet
Show threadHTPC NZFeb 4
@cstross think it is just going to normalise along what it is always about... Existing advertising corps will run the bullshit generators baked into their honeypots - search, social media etc. Others who foolishly tried to incorporate it into their products without really having this reach already will scale down. Masses will by default increase the use of BS generators as it will be at the core of their tech use.
Show threadKilla KoalaFeb 4
@cstross Jensen, are you seriously telling us you didn't think OpenAI were dodgy before today? I don't believe you, no one believes you.
Show threadJürgen HubertFeb 5

@cstross

I hope so. I am finally in a position to invest in stocks, but the blatant AI bubble has made me leery of doing that just now.

Show threadStarkRGFeb 5
@cstross Not fast enough. With a bubble this distended, it needs to pop violently, maiming everyone involved with it, not just slowly deflate, giving the people who caused it time to escape to the next bubble.
Show threadJohn GordonFeb 5
@cstross It’s not over until the players are done carving up OpenAI.
Show threadWilhelm GereFeb 8

@cstross

I'd go back to tulip bulbs if I were them.