another attempt to explain to myself why the worldview of so many of the #systemsdynamics people started to collide with reality since COVID or so, and many lost their marbles in sad and creative ways:
THIS is just not what most of us expected. these people are seeing everything through an #energy lense, for a justified reason, but also bc this group came out of the #peakoil crowd.
1/
so we were not wrong, finite resources peak, that is just the way it is, but ALL the factors that led to industry going: "yes we should try out shale rock" and kept the whole thing going to this day were not considered.
that should have been the first indicator that the #energy lense has been incomplete. not wrong, just not telling the whole story.
we have been the closest to the point of real energy price causing societal #collapse right before the 2008 crisis. some say it significantly contributed to it.
there was a point, because every other industry needs #energy for their activity energy price raises all other prices. inflation and energy price go together.
that confirmed the paradigm: that resource, especially #energy scarcity, will, as resources peak and decline, ultimately lead to societal #collapse. all the models assume that scenario, whether bardi's stuff, world3, you name it. this was the talk of the town in #environmentalist circles. we could all agree that exploiting finite resources is not #sustainable. it was simple, it was logic.
and then trump & COVID happened.
@kali
I think there is a deeper cycle in human affairs. Resources (also epidemics and other natural disasters) can be triggers and accelerators of change, but are not the root cause.
The cycle I see down through history is where a society initially makes significant advances, typically due to some new technology, but eventually gets stuck when a few individuals try to retain control to keep their privileged positions.
Eventually some other group will develop some advantage and the stuck society will be overtaken and/or overthrown.
kali
ocratato