Mastodawn

ProjectFearlessness Jan 29

Here in the U.K. the Gorton and Denton by-election has got people making all kinds of predictions, with most people saying it's a straight battle between Greens and Reform.

I'll just leave this here by Professor Rob Ford from the University of Manchester. He's saying it's actually a 4 party battle with none of the parties having a clear route through to victory.

He's not making any predictions.

The Gorton and Denton by-election: a tale of two Manchesters?
https://swingometer.substack.com/p/the-gorton-and-denton-by-election?utm_campaign=post&showWelcomeOnShare=true

The Gorton and Denton by-election: a tale of two Manchesters?

Unpopular incumbent + fragmented opposition + unusual seat = unpredictable contest

The Swingometer

ProjectFearlessness Jan 29

I can see it now. While all the candidates in the Gorton and Denton by election will be busy having a titanic ideological battle for the soul of the nation, the actual winner will be whoever promises to fix all those potholes on Hyde Road.

#UKPolitics
#Manchester

ProjectFearlessness

Here in the U.K. I know exactly who will win the Gorton and Denton by election.

It's whichever of the three parties on the left that stops using the threat of a Reform win as a stick to beat people into voting for them and actually starts campaigning.

The people of Gorton and Denton are many things, but stupid is not one of them.

#UKPolitics
#Manchester

ProjectFearlessness Jan 31

In Manchester, Labour have selected Whalley Range councillor Angeliki Stagios as candidate for the Gorton and Denton by election.

Apart from anything else, it would be so much fun watching Reform's Matt Goodwin losing to a Greek immigrant.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyn5zj8750o

Gorton and Denton by-election: Angeliki Stogia selected for Labour

The councillor was chosen after Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham was blocked from standing.

BBC News

ProjectFearlessness Feb 1

In the Gorton and Denton by-election here in the U.K., the Workers Party have just announced they are not standing a candidate.

This is really bad news for Reform. Without a third party splitting the progressive vote, their chances of winning just went from slim to remote. Really.

ProjectFearlessness Feb 2

The real truth of it is that, in the Gorton and Denton by-election here in the U.K., Reform have a vanishingly slim chance of winning. Any way you slice it, they just don't have the numbers.

The real battle is between Greens and Labour.

The other battle is to get Greens and Labour to admit that instead of wasting everyone's time with scary stories about Reform.

Gorton and Denton deserves better.

Peter Brown Feb 2

@ProjectFearlessness they should shut up about Reform because repeated mentions raises their profile, normalises them and increases their vote

ProjectFearlessness Feb 3

@peterbrown
It's exactly this. It's also patronising. Voters need to know what they're voting FOR, they already know what they're voting AGAINST.

Claire McNab Feb 1

@ProjectFearlessness But #AngelikaStogia is a corporate lobbyist: https://mastodon.ie/@2legged/115994580434207508

Claire McNab (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image #YCMTSU: Who is the #LabourParty candidate #AngelikiStogia for the #GortonAndDenton #byelection? #Stogia is Stakeholder Engagement and Communications lead for #Arup, focusing in finding funding and state support for private Energy and Rail contracts. https://www.arup.com/contact-us/angeliki-stogia/ The #Starmtroopers have really done it now. Faced with strong challenges from Greens #GPEW on the left and populist #ReformUK on the right, Labour chose a lobbyist for big business. Vote Labour, get #fatcat. #YCMTSU #ukpol

mastodon.ie

ProjectFearlessness Feb 1

@2legged
I feel like you don't have the first idea of who Angeliki Stogia even is. You're just projecting your views onto a city you don't understand. You're so wide of the mark I can safely ignore you.

Claire McNab Feb 1

@ProjectFearlessness Are you alleging that I made up #Arup's page about #AntelikiStogia? See https://www.arup.com/contact-us/angeliki-stogia/ / https://archive.is/5U9Cc

It seems to me that the lack of understanding is yours.

Angeliki Stogia

Angeliki is an Associate at Arup, leading the firm's Stakeholder Engagement and Communications service across the UKIMEA North region (includes Northwest England, Yorkshire, Scotland and Belfast).

ProjectFearlessness Feb 1

@2legged
If you took just a minute to look at the kind of projects Arup are involved with, you would see how flimsy this gotcha really is.
Again, so wide of the mark, and this conversation is not helping anyone in Gorton. Can we stop now?

Claire McNab Feb 1

@ProjectFearlessness I have followed #Arup business interests for many years. It doesn't alter the fact that #AngelikiStogia is a corporate lobbyist.

But I do note your determination to try to bully me into silence rather than discuss the substance. It's far from the first time I have encountered this approach, and I am unsurprised to find it in an apparent fan of the so-called "Labour Party".

ProjectFearlessness Feb 1

@2legged
Sorry if you think I'm trying to bully you into silence. The truth is I'm just not interested in your analysis because it's so wide of the mark. Like I keep trying to tell you.
Let's agree to disagree.

Claire McNab Feb 1

@ProjectFearlessness You have gone several rounds trying to dismiss the fact that #AngelikiStogia is a corporate lobbyist.

That's not analysis It's a fact.

ProjectFearlessness Feb 1

@2legged
We just don't agree that corporate lobbying is, by definition, a bad thing. A lot depends on what you're lobbying for.
But let's agree to disagree.

Claire McNab Feb 1

@ProjectFearlessness No, that's not the point of disagreement. Neither your view nor my view impacts the outcome.

The issue is whether the sort of voters who Labour needs will think that it's a bad thing for the so-called "Labour Party" candidate to be a corporate lobbyist, like #AngelikaStogia

ProjectFearlessness Feb 1

@2legged
OK, so will the fact Stogia works for a company that competes for government contracts to do the planning for projects in sustainable development, urban regeneration and green infrastructure put people off voting for her?
I'm going to say no. You can disagree with me, but this conversation has definitely run it's course.

Claire McNab Feb 1

@ProjectFearlessness Grand bit of #spin and #greenwashing there. You make it all sound throughly handknitted.

But #AngelikaStogia's opponents are unlikely to buy into this novel picture of a good corporate lobbyist. Spin it how you like, it's still privatisation of public planning.

ProjectFearlessness Feb 1

@2legged
Ok. Enough now. I look forward to the next by election in Leitrim so I can come and harangue you about something I know nothing about.

Claire McNab Feb 1

@ProjectFearlessness I look forward to that.

On previous patterns, there is likely to be a Leitrim by-election in about 20 years.

Hopefully by that time, you may have started to learn that other people have studied and learnt about the politics of places where they don't live, and maybe also started to learn that reasonable people can legitimately take a different view to yours.

ProjectFearlessness Feb 1

@2legged
Yeah, remember that time when I said we should agree to disagree and you said I was bullying you into silence?
I see straight through you. You're a drearily common type of discourse troll. Muting you now.

Claire McNab Feb 1

@ProjectFearlessness as been playing a very strange game. It consists of asserting some tendentious claim and demanding that I not reply.

This is a demand to have the last word. And because I don't accede to the demand, I get called a "discourse troll". Very odd behaviour.

Matt Mascarenhas Jan 30

@ProjectFearlessness Totally! So far the only candidate whose name I know is Hannah Spencer, of the Green Party.

Literally 100% of the coverage that's registered with me.

I'm just willing people on to talk about this by-election such that this kind of percentage – and, let's face it, good will towards the process – remains.

ProjectFearlessness Jan 30

@miblo
I like Hannah Spencer, but the Greens aren't helping anyone in Gorton by framing this as a "battle for the soul of the nation".
What the people actually want to know is what the candidates are going to do about local issues like poor health outcomes, low educational attainment, high unemployment and the housing shortage. You know, politics.

Matt Mascarenhas Jan 30

@ProjectFearlessness Ach, I see, yep!

Just taking health, I reckon Hannah's campaign could be a great opportunity for some coalition building, associating with the hospital repair funding advocacy of my own MP Lisa Smart down in nearby Hazel Grove.

Lisa herself actually does this cool thing in her speeches of kind of knitting together our neighbouring constituencies, cross-party. I'd love for Hannah to tap into this.

ProjectFearlessness Jan 30

@miblo
Yes, it would be great to hear some actual issues discussed instead of all the overwrought sniping. If it carries on like it has started off I might just move to Liverpool for the month.

Matt Mascarenhas Jan 30

@ProjectFearlessness Hehe, right!

Ollie 🇪🇺🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️🇵🇸🇺🇦Feb 1

@ProjectFearlessness Yeah, that's worked out so well for Labour 🤷‍♂️

ProjectFearlessness Feb 1

@distinctdipole
Both Greens and Labour are using this tactic, and I'm not making a distinction between either of them. They both need to do better if they want to get the votes in Gorton.

Ollie 🇪🇺🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️🇵🇸🇺🇦Feb 1

@ProjectFearlessness Absolutely agree. Just think it's stupid to be doing something that so obviously doesn't work and even if it appears to, is just a time-bomb

ProjectFearlessness Feb 1

@distinctdipole
It could also backfire in this by election. The only realistic chance of Reform getting in is if Labour and Greens run such negative alarmist campaigns that they suppress their voter turnout. Neither are off to a good start so far.