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AOC leads JD Vance for first time in 2028 election matchup: poll

https://lemmy.world/post/40326709

AOC leads JD Vance for first time in 2028 election matchup: poll - Lemmy.World

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez holds a slight lead over Vice President JD Vance in a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup, according to a new poll. The New York Democratic congresswoman, known as AOC, edges the likely Republican nominee 51% to 49%, in The Argument/Verasight survey released on Tuesday. However, the result was within the poll’s 2.7 percentage point margin of error, making the two candidates statistically tied. The poll asked voters who they would vote for if the election was between the two of them.

Dec 17 at 12:32pmWeb
Show threadTheRealKuniDec 17
As we’ve seen in every election from 2016 on, election polling is useless now.
Show threadDokPsyDec 17
The only polling that has any almost meaningful numbers is post vote polling but even that is suspect
Show threadReallyActuallyFrankensteinDec 17
Yes, but last election we could only muster two years of campaigning. We have to keep extending the election news cycle, since we build up a tolerance, and so it takes us all longer to create detailed suicide plans.
Show threadgivesomefucksDec 17

No.

People just don’t understand how stats actually works.

What you’re doing is no different than claiming any other science you don’t understand is fake

Show threadFlexibleToastDec 17
Prediction markets were correct though.
Show threadDevolutionDec 17
Since 2012. Remember when Herman Caine was the Republican nominee for a hot second? 🤣
Show threadfoggyDec 17

Vance won’t be the candidate and everyone knows it but Vance.

I’d bet on Tucker Carlson. 🤢

Show threadDokPsyDec 17

I fear it’ll still be Trump, assuming he’s alive

Is it in any way legal? No. Has that stopped him yet? Also no.

Show threadMakeitstopDec 17
I really want him to think he’s going to run again so that he’ll undermine anyone else that tries to run. And then he can croak or something after ruining the primaries and getting his followers to hate any would be successor.
Show threadDokPsyDec 17
I’ve stopped being so hopeful. The best I can hope for at this point is President Camacho
Show threadhumanDec 17
He actually listened to the experts.
Show threadCharlesDarwinDec 17
That was one of the most unbelievable aspects of that movie.
Show threadBronzebeardDec 18
There was like 500 years of people not listening to experts in between. It was bound to happen at some point.
Show threadPresident CamachoDec 17
As we all should.
Show threadCharlesDarwinDec 17
He gets to the debates, then zones out and literally shits his diaper (audibly).
Show threadLOGIC💣Dec 17

I don’t even think Trump can legally be president today.

And on top of what you said, there’s also the possibility that Trump will be alive but too senile to run.

Show threadDokPsyDec 17
He can’t legally run. He also has yet to be actually stopped from any of his other actions that are blatantly illegal so there is zero proof that he’ll stop now
Show threadLOGIC💣Dec 17

No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

The 14th Amendment doesn’t say that he can’t run. It says that he can’t hold any office. Trump has a “disability” from when he engaged in insurrection by intentionally inciting it, and that disability has not been removed by Congress.

This disability does not require he be convicted of any crime. Instead, the 14th Amendment simply requires that Congress enforce the Amendment:

The Congress shall have power to enforce, by appropriate legislation, the provisions of this article.

Donald Trump cannot legally hold any office under the United States. He cannot legally be president. The only reason he’s able to act like the president now is that Congress is not enforcing the Constitution.

I wouldn’t be surprised if, at some point in the future, perhaps even after Trump passes away, Congress finally grows some backbone and enforces the amendment, just to try to make up for the embarrassment that Trump causes us, similar to how the Germans would rather not remember that Hitler had been the Chancellor of Germany. Trump might be retroactively declared to have never been the president after January 6, 2021, and I think that would be in line with what is written in the Constitution.

Show threadsupersquirrelDec 17
I agree but I don’t think Trump’s body will hold out that long before collapsing from being treated like the dumpster it is.
Show threaddhorkDec 17
It’s going to be Donald Trump Jr. They won’t even need to change the hats.
Show threadCharlesDarwinDec 17
With Marg as VP?
Show threadmelsaskcaDec 17
My poll said the opposite. Twenty other polls said twenty different things. This ain’t news anymore. Regardless of which week it takes place in.
Show threadHazardousBanjoDec 17

I greatly fear that if AOC were to run, the terminally online left would pull the rug out from under her.

Any time she’s ever done any action that went not 100% in favor of the delusional mindset of idiots who think single politicians can usher in perfect communism, the TOL screamed bloody murder and withdrew all support and hype.

The same would happen in Nov 2028

Show threaddriving_croonerDec 17
Mamdani had not even started his term and has already being cancel by the TOL.
Show threadZaktorDec 17

And notice how that was irrelevant to his election and then later opinion polls? Tankies are a tiny sliver of the progressive left. Like my entire real life social circle leans strongly progressive and not a single one even filters through the shadow of a tankie position. People who would literally like Communism to be on the political table still aren’t tankies.

That doesn’t mean progressives are irrelevant, just that ‘tankies’ are used as a Boogeyman by conservative online Democrats to simultaneously explain all their failures while also saying we should keep listening to them when they counsel doing exactly the same thing one more time.

Show threadDevolutionDec 17

AOC didn’t support Gaza and is not communist enough!!! I will protest vote Jill Stein or not vote at all.

  • Tankies and oblivious leftists (these people are the reason progressive causes never go anywhere).
Show threaddhorkDec 17
AOC isnt running for President, they already promised her Schumer’s seat if she backs off for President. Gavin is the Next One Up!
Show threadHazardousBanjoDec 17

That’s what’s so disgusting and I fear.

Gavin Newsom is pro-Israel, pro-billionaire and pro-blue MAGA while also being anti-universal healthcare, anti-taxing the rich and anti-charisma when left to his own vices.

My sincerest fear is a repeat of the 2020 primaries. Ro Khanna or some other Bernie esc politician will run for the ticket and the left will once again divide themselves into oblivion. Bernie could still have won 2020 if the left didn’t stupidly allow itself to split between Elizabeth Warren, Tulsi Gabbard, and Andrew Yang.

Instead Newsom will win because the left loves defeat and hates unity.

Show threadJcbAzPxDec 18
Gavin will lose, so I hope you’re wrong about that.
Show threaddhorkDec 18

No, Gavin has a key asset that the last two Democratic losing candidates lacked…

A penis.

Show threadTheAlbatrossDec 17
I’m not sure the terminally online left you mention make up a significant enough portion of any electorate to impact the race in this way.
Show threadRhoeriDec 17
Then they need to stop claiming that their threats make a difference.
Show threadCharlesDarwinDec 17
Yeah, I have the same fears. These people are probably way more vocal than their numbers, but I do wonder how much they do to sway others.
Show threadchunesDec 17
The actual left is almost completely irrelevant to any election
Show threadRhoeriDec 17

Yeah, I’ve already seen some of the idiots saying she’s a corpo-centrist they wouldn’t vote for.

The perfect candidate will come around for them eventually, and until then- they will arrogantly sit on their smug little entitled asses and watch people suffer while America burns.

They’re every bit as bad a MAGA.

Show threadWhatAmLemmyDec 17

Just another example of how America is collapsing under the weight of its own corporate/oligarch dictatorship, corruption, ignorance, racism, and mental illness epidemic.

An intelligent, empathetic leader is basically tied with a traitorous, criminally sociopathic, con artist who possesses zero morals or ethics, and literally works for someone he previously called Hitler…

If the US weren’t a failed state, Trump would be in prison and Vance would be a fucking nobody.

Show threadDamageDec 17
JD Vance has zero charisma, idk how he can be in the race but, well… Trump.
Show threadhddsxDec 17
He had the backing of Big Couch
Show threadsantaDec 17
Even when ordering a doughnut. It’s sad.
Show threadarrow74Dec 17

Objectively during the VP debate I’d say he had more charisma than Walz if you’re dumb.

He can command a stage, but he was saying utter nonsense while doing it. Basically he said things well, but if you actually listened to his words you should see through it.

Unfortunately too many people are just there for the performance and not the facts.

It’s how 2016 Trump beat Hillary imo. The man was an actor and basically just did crowd work. Anyone with 2 braincells could see through it but we’ll that’s not enough people

Show threadModCenDec 17
I find it ironic that Vance has talked about Europe supposedly not being democratic and supposedly not listening to the will of the people. Hillary Clinton in 2016 (whether you like her or not) got more votes than Trump. If the US respected the will of the people, they’d get rid of the electoral college, and they would have inaugurated Hillary as president.
Show threadUnspecificGravityDec 17
Because he gets a baseline of like 35% just for having R next to his name.
Show threadjjjalljsDec 17
I didn’t think anyone liked Vance. But I guess there are a lot of sexists and Republican cultists out there.
Show threadflandishDec 17

why the fuck are we even entertaining who is going to be the next when we are not even one year into this current nazi’s 2nd regime?

is news that slow?

Show threadryathalDec 17
The parties and media companies have extended the campaign window for presidency to absurd lengths. It’s essentially a two year campaign window with 6-12 months of preparation and testing the waters. Now is when candidates are conducting research to see what their odds would be.
Show threadShellMonkeyDec 17
She was recently endorsed as by the furniture builders union as being the only couch safe candidate. Now she's sitting pretty...
Show threadStefan_S_from_HDec 17

Hold on. Does this mean that so far the American voters thought JD Vance was the better candidate? And now only a few more people think AOC is better?

Maybe we in Europe should stop blaming Trump and say it’s the USA. The USA is raising tariffs, and the USA is telling lies about Ukraine.

Show threadNABDadDec 17

You used to hear people in other countries say they have nothing against the American people, they just hate the American government.

The reality is, the American government is the American people. The enormous effort that goes into gerrymandering and screwing with voter registration just goes to show that it is still a democracy, and the pieces of shit running things are the pieces of shit we picked.

Even with all the gerrymandering and rigging that goes on, they still needed a metric shit ton of fuckwits to vote for them. If Americans weren’t astoundingly stupid, we wouldn’t be in the situation we’re in.

However, don’t everyone go patting yourselves on the back just yet. Stupid isn’t limited to America.

Show threadWhatGodIsMadeOfDec 18
It’s honestly like a dark part of human nature is eating away at the “1st world” lifestyles and cultures. And it corrupted beyond fixing. Its most blatantly visible in the USA.
Show threadWhatGodIsMadeOfDec 18
This is what I, an American, have been saying!!! It’s not just trump this is American Culture.
Show threadDevolutionDec 17

I don’t want either to run personally. AOC needs to go to the Senate or replace Jeffries before I feel she is ready for the shit show that comes with the broken relationships Trump has caused.

Vance just needs to be the bottom to a couch falling from a skyscraper.

Show threadBonifratzDec 17
Who would you rather see as the Democratic nominee? (Assuming an election in 2028)
Show threadDevolutionDec 17
We aren’t there yet.
Show threadWoodScientistDec 17

AOC needs to go to the Senate or replace Jeffries before I feel she is ready for the shit show that comes with the broken relationships Trump has caused.

You’re a coward. This is cowardly thinking. This is what got us Biden. This is what got us Clinton. Democrats try and reason themselves out of going with their best candidate. They select someone who has no fire, passion, or charisma. They reject any candidate that can inspire the base, all on the grounds that they don’t have enough experience, aren’t moderate enough, etc. We nominate some unelectable centrist, ironically on the back of “electability.” And then Republicans nominate a reality TV star with no governing experience at all, and the electable Dem loses in a landslide.

Maybe you just don’t know what it means for a candidate to be electable?

Show threadDevolutionDec 17

Did you vote? 1st question. Secondly, I’m guessing you didn’t read the whole comment.

Children’s attention spans these days.

Show threadWoodScientistDec 17
Are you illiterate?
Show threadDevolutionDec 17
Tl;Dr. Tankie drivel.
Show threadWoodScientistDec 17
So first you pretend that your original comment had content it didn’t. Then you throw around slurs. You’re insane. Really, someone dares to criticize corporate Dems, and you just can’t help yourself. You start throwing around slurs like “tankie” in a completely irrelevant context. You’re just an llm at this point, a blind parrot rattling off catch phrases.
Show threadDevolutionDec 18
Blind, butthurt and a hypocrite. Who slung insults first?
Show threadthevoidzeroDec 17

51?

This is what’s wrong with people.

Even if trump had lost the election I was gonna be horrified if he had even gotten 30% of the votes. But this… Again. It doesn’t matter if AOC wins if half the country is basically saying after all this they want more.